A director at Vat Group Ag bought 200 shares at 343.434CHF and the significance rating of the trade was 57/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly sh...
The recovery in growth in the IT & engineering services sector is undermined by the still mixed macroeconomic climate and the setbacks in the automotive and aerospace sectors. The improvement in sector momentum will therefore be minimal in H2 2024 with a growing decorrelation between the US which should be robust and a stagnating Europe. This leads us to adopt a more cautious approach on companies in our sector (revision to our 2025 growth estimates for 12 companies) and to prefer Acc...
La reprise de la croissance du secteur IT & Engineering Services est mise à mal par un contexte macro toujours mitigé et par les déboires des secteurs Auto et Aéro. Ainsi, l’amélioration de la dynamique du secteur sera minimale au S2 2024 et probablement aussi au S1 2025, avec une décorrélation grandissante entre les US qui devraient être solides et une Europe stagnante. Ceci nous amène à adopter une approche plus prudente pour les sociétés de notre secteur (révision de croissance 202...
>Neutral rating confirmed, target price cut to CHF 430 (vs CHF 500) - VAT's share price lost 1% yesterday. Whilst the group’s Q3 publication disappointed on order intake and revenue, a share of this disappointment was probably already anticipated following the low level of order intake at ASML in Q3, indicating a slow recovery in demand for semiconductors excluding AI (notably on smartphones/PCs). We have therefore lowered our revenue forecasts for 2024 (7% vs 12%) an...
>Opinion Neutre confirmée, OC révisé à 430 CHF (vs 500 CHF) - Le titre VAT était en baisse de 1% hier. Si le T3 de VAT a déçu sur les commandes et le CA, une partie de cette déception avait probablement déjà été anticipée suite aux faibles commandes d’ASML au T3, indiquant notamment une reprise lente de la demande de semiconducteurs hors IA (notamment sur les smartphones/PCs). Nous ajustons ainsi en baisse notre prévision de croissance du CA sur 2024 (7% vs 12%) et 20...
We measured the impact of the contribution from Michel Barnier’s exceptional tax on 88 stocks exposed to France. Some 17 of them would experience a (negative) impact on their EPS of more than 4% on average over 2024 and 2025: LDC (-8.3%), Synergie (-8%), Eiffage (-7.9%), ADP (-7.9%), Dassault Aviation (-7%), Crit (-6.9%), Derichebourg (-6.3%), Hermès (-5.6%), Safran (-5.6%), Bouygues (-5.6%), M6 (-5.2%), Thales (-5%), TF1 (-4.9%), Nexans (-4.9%), Vinci (-4.7%), Compagnie des Alpes (...
Nous avons mesuré l’impact de la contribution exceptionnelle Barnier sur 88 valeurs exposées à la France. 17 d’entre elles auraient un impact (négatif) sur leurs BPA de plus de 4% en moyenne sur 2024 et 2025 : LDC (-8,3%), Synergie (-8%), Eiffage (-7,9%) ADP (-7,9%), Dassault Aviation (-7%), Crit (-6,9%), Derichebourg (-6,3%), Hermès (-5,6%), Safran (-5,6%), Bouygues (-5,6%), M6 (-5,2%), Thalès (-5%), TF1 (-4,9%), Nexans (-4,9%), Vinci (-4,7%), Compagnie des Alpes (-4,4%), FDJ (-4%). - ...
>Q3 2024 sales and orders below expectations beyond ERP-related concerns - This morning, VAT reported Q3 2024 sales and order intake below expectations. Q3 sales were CHF 209m, flat y-o-y and down 17% q-o-q. As previously communicated (8/10), Q3 was impacted by technical issues (order loading/issuance of shipping documents) linked to the implementation of the new ERP (Enterprise Resource Planning) in Switzerland that started in August 2024. Still, excluding the impact...
>Q3 2024 sales and orders below expectations beyond ERP-related concerns - This morning, VAT reported Q3 2024 sales and order intake below expectations. Q3 sales were CHF 209m, flat y-o-y and down 17% q-o-q. As previously communicated (8/10), Q3 was impacted by technical issues (order loading/issuance of shipping documents) linked to the implementation of the new ERP (Enterprise Resource Planning) in Switzerland that started in August 2024. Still, excluding the impact...
The long financial duration that Cellnex enjoys implies high sensitivity of the valuation to discount rates. After a long challenging two-year period, we now see a more favourable economic environment ahead. Factors such as the potential for interest rate cuts and inflation nearing Cellnex’s sweet spot, coupled with a strong organic performance and newly implemented strategic measures—particularly deleveraging and further efficiencies on both Opex and Capex—create a positive backdrop....
The long financial duration that Cellnex enjoys implies high sensitivity of the valuation to discount rates. After a long challenging two-year period, we now see a more favourable economic environment ahead. Factors such as the potential for interest rate cuts and inflation nearing Cellnex’s sweet spot, coupled with a strong organic performance and newly implemented strategic measures—particularly deleveraging and further efficiencies on both Opex and Capex—create a positive backdrop....
>Q3 2024 sales figures to fall short of Q3 guidance of CHF 235-255m due to technical issues from the new ERP solution (impact of CHF 20-25m) - This morning, VAT said that it expects its Q3 2024 sales figures to fall short of the low point of Q3 guidance of CHF 235 to 255m due to technical issues from the new ERP (enterprise resource planning) solution implementation in Switzerland that started in August 2024. VAT estimates this a one-off negative impact in Q3 to be in...
>Q3 2024 sales figures to fall short of Q3 guidance of CHF 235-255m due to technical issues from the new ERP solution (impact of CHF 20-25m) - This morning, VAT said that it expects its Q3 2024 sales figures to fall short of the low point of Q3 guidance of CHF 235 to 255m due to technical issues from the new ERP (enterprise resource planning) solution implementation in Switzerland that started in August 2024. VAT estimates this a one-off negative impact in Q3 to be in...
>A fresh acceleration to worldwide semiconductor sales in August at +20.6% y-o-y (vs +18.7% in July) - Worldwide semiconductor sales in August 2024 were published by the WSTS (World Semiconductor Trade Statistics) with the usual one-month lag. On a three-month moving average, sales came to $ 53.1bn, ahead of our forecast of $ 52bn. This represents a sequential increase of 3.5% and +20.6% y-o-y, after +18.7% in July. At the regional level, sales from one year to the n...
>Nouvelle accélération de la croissance des ventes mondiales de semis en août à +20.6% yoy (vs +18.7% en juillet) - Les ventes mondiales de semiconducteurs d’août 2024 ont été publiées par WSTS (World Semiconductor Trade Statistics), avec (comme toujours) un mois de décalage. En données lissées (moyenne de 3 mois), elles ressortent à 53.1 Md$ au-dessus de notre prévision à 52 Md$. Il s’agit d’une hausse séquentielle de 3.5% et annuelle de 20.6% après 18.7% en juillet....
Last week we held our fourth ODDO BHF Iberian Forum. The event was fully virtual and took place on October 1 and 2. With 62 Iberian issuers, close to 200 institutional investors and c. 800 meetings, this is one of the largest dedicated Iberian conferences held this year. This note brings together 49 feedback documents, with 5 target price revisions (o/w 3 downward revisions) and a rating downgrade on Pharma Mar. The main subjects of debate were i/ the trend in final demand in the con...
Last week we held our fourth ODDO BHF Iberian Forum. The event was fully virtual and took place on October 1 and 2. With 62 Iberian issuers, close to 200 institutional investors and c. 800 meetings, this is one of the largest dedicated Iberian conferences held this year. This note brings together 49 feedback documents, with 5 target price revisions (o/w 3 downward revisions) and a rating downgrade on Pharma Mar. The main subjects of debate were i/ the trend in final demand in the con...
Last week we held our fourth ODDO BHF Iberian Forum. The event was fully virtual and took place on October 1 and 2. With 62 Iberian issuers, close to 200 institutional investors and c. 800 meetings, this is one of the largest dedicated Iberian conferences held this year. This note brings together 49 feedback documents, with 5 target price revisions (o/w 3 downward revisions) and a rating downgrade on Pharma Mar. The main subjects of debate were i/ the trend in final demand in the con...
Last week we held our fourth ODDO BHF Iberian Forum. The event was fully virtual and took place on October 1 and 2. With 62 Iberian issuers, close to 200 institutional investors and c. 800 meetings, this is one of the largest dedicated Iberian conferences held this year. This note brings together 49 feedback documents, with 5 target price revisions (o/w 3 downward revisions) and a rating downgrade on Pharma Mar. The main subjects of debate were i/ the trend in final demand in the con...
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