Securitas AB: 1 director

A director at Securitas AB bought 46,000 shares at 107.870SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 87/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly...

Securitas (Buy, TP: SEK158.00) - Back to investment grade

With all eyes on FCF before the report, Securitas took gearing back to investment grade at end-Q4. We have raised our forecasts slightly, with the company progressing well towards its end-2025 8% profit margin target. We still see a strong transformation case, with the potentially riskier early integration of Stanley Security now behind us; we thus reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK158 (154).

Swedish small caps

Swedish small caps

Securitas (Buy, TP: SEK154.00) - One of our top picks for 2024

In our view, Securitas ticks most boxes for a top pick in 2024, with its self-help opportunity in the finalisation of the transformation programme and the Stanley Security integration. Given the company’s good progress towards its 8% profit margin target by end-2025 is still not reflected in consensus (or our forecasts), and with the stock trading at a c30% discount to its 10-year average, we still see a strong investment case. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK154 (153...

Securitas (Buy, TP: SEK153.00) - Moving towards its targets

Securitas saw strong profit margin progress across its geographies in Q3, with another record high in the US. We have tweaked our forecasts following the results. As the company’s good progress towards its 8% profit margin target by end-2025 is still far from reflected in consensus (or our forecasts) and with the stock trading at a c30% discount to its 10-year average, we still see a strong transformation case. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK153 (150).

Swedish Small-caps:Selected names on our radar Autumn 2023

Swedish Small-caps:Selected names on our radar Autumn 2023

Northern Lights

Securitas (Buy, TP: SEK150.00) - US already at 8.0% LTM margin

With Europe improving and another record performance from the US, Securitas’ Q2 was strong. We have tweaked our forecasts post-results, although with many moving parts. As the journey towards the 8% profit margin target by end-2025 is still far from reflected in consensus (or our forecasts), with Securitas making good progress and the stock trading at a c30% discount to its 10-year average, we still see a strong transformation case. We reiterate our BUY and SEK150 target price.

Securitas (Buy, TP: SEK150.00) - Good progress towards 2025 goal

The US operation continued to shine in Q1, returning to organic growth with strong earnings leverage, while Europe remained in transformation mode, with our forecasts only tweaked post-results. As the journey towards the 8% profit margin target by end-2025 is still far from discounted in consensus or our forecasts and the stock is trading at a c30% discount to its 10-year average, we believe the near-term integration risks are priced in, particularly with the refinancing risk now neutralised. We...

Securitas (Buy, TP: SEK150.00) - US remains the star

The Securitas Technical Solutions transformation case, enhanced by Stanley Security, reported a solid Q4 with strong growth, margin expansion, and financial capacity rebuilding. With the journey towards the 8% profit margin target by end-2025 still far from discounted in consensus or our forecasts and the stock trading at a 30% discount to its 10-year average, we believe the near-term integration risks are well priced in and we reiterate our BUY and SEK150 target price, suggesting 50% upside pot...

Securitas (Buy, TP: SEK150.00) - Positive Stanley Security impact

Q3 saw a promising start to the Stanley Security-enhanced Technical Solutions transformation case driving growth, margin expansion, and FCF generation. With the journey towards the 8% profit margin target by end-2025 still far from discounted in consensus (or our) expectations and the stock still valued at a 30% discount to its 10-year average, we believe near-term refinancing and integration risks are well priced in and present an excess return opportunity longer-term. We reiterate our BUY and ...

Securitas - Case intact after a solid Q3

Sales and EBITA +3% vs FactSet cons We raise estimates slightly, ‘23e EBITA up 1% Reiterate BUY with unchanged TP of SEK 130

Securitas - Strong September leads to Q3 beat

Sales +3% and EBITA +3% vs cons Consensus ‘22e EBITA probably up 1-2% Share to outperform slightly today

Securitas - We expect a solid Q3

High visibility into numbers, two months pre-announced ’22e EBITA up 3% (1% underlying, 2% from FX) Q3 report due on Tuesday, 8 November

Strategy Report - Share performance during rights issues

Increasing amounts of rights issues expected Last five years saw shares overperform post-rights issue Offensive reasons for issues generally perform well

Securitas - Positive trading update for July-August

6% organic sales growth and 6.5% EBITA margin Indicates sales and EBITA 1.5% and 4.5% above cons. Stanley profitability already improving from H1

Securitas - SEK 9.6bn rights issue finally communicated

Subscription price of SEK 46 vs close at SEK 91.6 Terms worse than expected, we lower ‘23e EPS by 32% Reiterate BUY with new TP of SEK 130 (160)

Securitas - New financial targets in conjunction with CMD

Aims for 8% EBITA margin by year-end 2025 Technology & Solutions to grow sales by 8-10% CAGR No change to cash flow target or dividend policy

Northern Lights

Securitas - Q2 shows step in the right direction

Sales +3.7% and EBITA +7.4% vs. consensus We raise underlying EBITA by ~3.5% and add Stanley Reiterate BUY with a new TP of SEK 160 (154)