Securitas : Evolution of coverage

As part of the rotation of our coverage, we are terminating the coverage with recommendation of Securitas. We will continue to follow the newsflow of the issuer in the Credit Morning. Our previous credit opinion was Positive and our previous market recommendations were Buy on SECUSS 2027 & 2029 and Neutral on SECUSS 2028 bonds. We plan to initiate the coverage of new issuers soon.

Securitas : Evolution de la couverture

Dans le cadre de la rotation du suivi de nos valeurs, nous arrêtons la couverture avec recommandation de Securitas. Nous continuerons de suivre le newsflow de cet émetteur dans le Morning crédit. Notre précédent avis crédit était Positif et nos précédentes recommandations de marché étaient Achat sur les obligations SECUBSS 2027 et 2029 et Neutre sur la souche 2028. Nous comptons prochainement initier la couverture de nouveaux émetteurs.

Margin target within reach, but at what cost?

Securitas AB: 1 director

A director at Securitas AB bought 3,500 shares at 142.600SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 63/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly ...

Margin beat; EBITA +2% vs cons

Keeps on improving profitability

Slight sales miss in Q1, profitability in line

Large US exposure turns into a headwind

Securitas (Buy, TP: SEK192.00) - More of the same in Q1e

We expect Q1 to show similar trends to the most recent quarters, but negative FX translation effects (strengthening SEK) still result in cuts to our 2025–2027e EPS of 4–5%. We continue to see a robust transformation case, as the journey towards the 8% profit margin target by end-2025 continues, with our H2 2025e EBITA margin now at 7.8–7.9%. We reiterate our BUY, but have lowered our target price to SEK192 (200).

2025 targets within reach

Securitas (Buy, TP: SEK200.00) - Strength continues into 2025

The Q4 results were strong, with Europe and Ibero-America improving and the US still sound. FCF remained strong, returning the balance sheet to a solid investment-grade level. We have tweaked our forecasts post-Q4, and continue to see a robust transformation case, as the journey towards the 8% profit margin target by end-2025 (LTM 6.9%) continues. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK200 (175).

Solid end to 2024

Focus on Europe profitability after Q3 beat

Financial target looks more achievable now

Securitas (Buy, TP: SEK175.00) - Another step in the right direction

Securitas’s Q3 was strong, with Europe and IberoAmerica improving and the US remaining solid. FCF generation was much-improved, accelerating the balance sheet de-gearing. We have tweaked our forecasts post-Q3. We still see a solid transformation case, as the journey towards the 8% profit margin target by end-2025 (LTM 6.8%) continues. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK175 (160).

Europe drives Q3 beat

Down to HOLD after strong run

Report due 6 November, we expect 3% EBITA growth y-o-y. Provision and FX behind revisions, '24-'25e EPS down 10-3%. We downgrade to HOLD (Buy) with unchanged TP of SEK 135.

Securitas (Buy, TP: SEK160.00) - Europe improving

With Europe and IberoAmerica improving and the US remaining solid, Securitas’ Q2 was strong; thus, we have tweaked our forecasts. We still see a solid transformation case, as the journey towards the 8% profit margin target by end-2025 (LTM 6.6%) continues. In our H2e, we see a major improvement in FCF generation as the Stanley Security integration and transformation programmes are finalised. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK160 (158).

Europe's improvement drives Q2 beat

Q2 EBITA +2% vs. consensus. We raise '24e EBITA by 3%, with FX lending a tailwind. Reiterate BUY with new TP of SEK 135 (125).

Key KPIs in the right direction