Securitas (Buy, TP: SEK192.00) - More of the same in Q1e

We expect Q1 to show similar trends to the most recent quarters, but negative FX translation effects (strengthening SEK) still result in cuts to our 2025–2027e EPS of 4–5%. We continue to see a robust transformation case, as the journey towards the 8% profit margin target by end-2025 continues, with our H2 2025e EBITA margin now at 7.8–7.9%. We reiterate our BUY, but have lowered our target price to SEK192 (200).

2025 targets within reach

Securitas (Buy, TP: SEK200.00) - Strength continues into 2025

The Q4 results were strong, with Europe and Ibero-America improving and the US still sound. FCF remained strong, returning the balance sheet to a solid investment-grade level. We have tweaked our forecasts post-Q4, and continue to see a robust transformation case, as the journey towards the 8% profit margin target by end-2025 (LTM 6.9%) continues. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK200 (175).

Solid end to 2024

Focus on Europe profitability after Q3 beat

Financial target looks more achievable now

Securitas (Buy, TP: SEK175.00) - Another step in the right direction

Securitas’s Q3 was strong, with Europe and IberoAmerica improving and the US remaining solid. FCF generation was much-improved, accelerating the balance sheet de-gearing. We have tweaked our forecasts post-Q3. We still see a solid transformation case, as the journey towards the 8% profit margin target by end-2025 (LTM 6.8%) continues. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK175 (160).

Europe drives Q3 beat

Down to HOLD after strong run

Report due 6 November, we expect 3% EBITA growth y-o-y. Provision and FX behind revisions, '24-'25e EPS down 10-3%. We downgrade to HOLD (Buy) with unchanged TP of SEK 135.

Securitas AB: 2 directors

A director at Securitas AB bought 32,000 shares at 123.920SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 66/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly...

Securitas (Buy, TP: SEK160.00) - Europe improving

With Europe and IberoAmerica improving and the US remaining solid, Securitas’ Q2 was strong; thus, we have tweaked our forecasts. We still see a solid transformation case, as the journey towards the 8% profit margin target by end-2025 (LTM 6.6%) continues. In our H2e, we see a major improvement in FCF generation as the Stanley Security integration and transformation programmes are finalised. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK160 (158).

Europe's improvement drives Q2 beat

Q2 EBITA +2% vs. consensus. We raise '24e EBITA by 3%, with FX lending a tailwind. Reiterate BUY with new TP of SEK 135 (125).

Key KPIs in the right direction

Continued profitability improvements expected

Report due 30 July, we expect 4% EBITA growth y-o-y. FX headwinds behind revisions, '24e EBITA down 2%. We reiterate BUY with an unchanged TP of SEK 125.

Case intact after neutral Q1

Q1 EBITA in line with consensus. Minor revisions, '24e EBITA down marginally. Reiterate BUY, unchanged TP of SEK 125.

Securitas (Buy, TP: SEK158.00) - North America showing the way

The North American operation continued to shine in Q1, growing with strong earnings leverage, while Europe remained in transformation mode. We have raised our 2024–2026e EPS by 3–5% on the results, mainly due to FX. We still see a strong transformation case, as the journey towards the 8% profit margin target by end-2025 (LTM 6.6%) continues, with the riskier early part of the Stanley Security integration now largely finalised. We reiterate our BUY and SEK158 target price.

Struggle in Europe main issue in Q1

Securitas (Buy, TP: SEK158.00) - Back to investment grade

With all eyes on FCF before the report, Securitas took gearing back to investment grade at end-Q4. We have raised our forecasts slightly, with the company progressing well towards its end-2025 8% profit margin target. We still see a strong transformation case, with the potentially riskier early integration of Stanley Security now behind us; we thus reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK158 (154).

Swedish small caps

Swedish small caps

Securitas (Buy, TP: SEK154.00) - One of our top picks for 2024

In our view, Securitas ticks most boxes for a top pick in 2024, with its self-help opportunity in the finalisation of the transformation programme and the Stanley Security integration. Given the company’s good progress towards its 8% profit margin target by end-2025 is still not reflected in consensus (or our forecasts), and with the stock trading at a c30% discount to its 10-year average, we still see a strong investment case. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK154 (153...