reports
- Emmanuel Matot
ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 28/03/2024
Hormis les Etats-Unis, les marchés de la construction devraient continuer à reculer en 2024 (-2% en Europe) avant de rebondir à la faveur d’une baisse des taux. Dans ce contexte, la différenciation entre les groupes se fera essentiellement sur leur capacité de résistance (mix géographique et prix/ coûts), l’allocation du capital (et situations spéciales) et leur valorisation. Face à cet environnement, nous relevons nos recommandations sur KONE (la modernisation comme relais de la Chin...
- Emmanuel Matot
ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 03/28/2024
With the exception of the US, construction markets should continue to shrink in 2024 (-2% in Europe) before rebounding on the back of lower interest rates. Against this backdrop, groups will be differentiated mainly on the basis of their resilience (geographical and price/cost mix), capital allocation (and special situations) and valuation. In this context, we are upgrading our recommendations on KONE (modernisation as an alternative source of growth to China) and Holcim (a substantia...
- Emmanuel Matot
ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 28/03/2024
Hormis les Etats-Unis, les marchés de la construction devraient continuer à reculer en 2024 (-2% en Europe) avant de rebondir à la faveur d’une baisse des taux. Dans ce contexte, la différenciation entre les groupes se fera essentiellement sur leur capacité de résistance (mix géographique et prix/ coûts), l’allocation du capital (et situations spéciales) et leur valorisation. Face à cet environnement, nous relevons nos recommandations sur KONE (la modernisation comme relais de la Chin...
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Jacob Mekhael
- Kristof Samoy
- Lynn Hautekeete
- Sharad Kumar S.P
- Thibault Leneeuw
- Thomas Vranken
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Lewi
- Thijs Berkelder
HAL Trust : Boskalis key driver for strong earnings improvement
>Net earnings of € 1.0bn (= € 11.17 per share) - Results. HAL reports a 2023 net result of € 1,000.5m (= € 11.17 per share), up from € 646.8m (€ 7.23 ps) for 2022. After 23H1 of € 550.0m (= € 6.20 ps), up from minus € 161.2m in 22H1 (= minus € 1.82 ps), this implies for 23H2 net result of € 450.5m (= € 4.97 ps), compared to € 808.0m (€ 9.05 ps) in 22H2.Unquoted companies. The EBIT of unquoted companies amounted to € 915m (2022: € 403m), an increase of € 512m. Exc...
- Sharad Kumar S.P
Hal Trust FY23: Portfolio Rebounds Thanks To Record Results At Boskali...
During FY23, NAV came in at €13,563.0m (€150.1ps), a slight increase of +1.6% vs €147.7ps during FY22. Thanks to the 100.0% acquisition of Boskalis, net result rose by 54.7% YoY to €1,001.0m vs €647.0m during FY22. Boskalis posted record results with revenues, EBITDA and net result rising by 19.7%, 68.2% and 149.4% respectively – this has a steady rally in the name over the last couple weeks. Proposed gross dividend (cash only) for FY23 is €2.85ps, up 14.0% YoY. The location of management of the...
- Joren Van Aken
HAL Trust - FY23: Slightly below estimates & strategic changes
*FY23 NAV at EUR 150.1 p/s, up 1.6% YoY and slightly below our estimate.*Proposed dividend of EUR 2.85 already pre-announced.*Move to Rotterdam + fiscal friendly dividends point to intention to remain listed and increase investability.*With EUR 2.9bn of cash available, liquidity is plenty and hence future share price performance is highly dependent on capital allocation which has been disappointing for some tech names in the portfolio. *We estimate today's NAV to be EUR 160.1 p/s, implying ...
- Joren Van Aken
HAL Trust - Favorable tax arrangement for dividends
At the EGM, next to the move from Curaçao to Rotterdam, HAL Trust also approved the increase of the nominal share capital from EUR 0.02 to EUR 135 p/s in agreement with Dutch tax department.In practice, this allows for practically tax-free dividends in the form of capital reductions up to EUR 135. Future profits will be taxed as normal.This is beneficial for shareholders and this is another indication that HAL Trust wishes to remain listed.Because of this, we lower our target discount to 30% (fr...
- Jerôme Bodin
INFINEON INFINEON TECHNOLOGIES AG
EDEN EDENRED SA
JMT JERONIMO MARTINS SGPS S.A.
VIV VIVENDI SE
TEP TELEPERFORMANCE SE
HAL HAL TRUST
AMP AMPLIFON S.P.A.
01913 PRADA S.P.A.
AENA AENA SME SA
INW INFRASTRUTTURE WIRELESS ITALIANE S.P.A.
TIT TELECOM ITALIA S.P.A.
IBE IBERDROLA SA
COLO B COLOPLAST A/S CLASS B
ASML ASML HOLDING NV
HFG HELLOFRESH SE
- Jerôme Bodin
INFINEON INFINEON TECHNOLOGIES AG
EDEN EDENRED SA
JMT JERONIMO MARTINS SGPS S.A.
VIV VIVENDI SE
TEP TELEPERFORMANCE SE
HAL HAL TRUST
AMP AMPLIFON S.P.A.
01913 PRADA S.P.A.
AENA AENA SME SA
INW INFRASTRUTTURE WIRELESS ITALIANE S.P.A.
TIT TELECOM ITALIA S.P.A.
IBE IBERDROLA SA
COLO B COLOPLAST A/S CLASS B
ASML ASML HOLDING NV
HFG HELLOFRESH SE
- Thijs Berkelder
HAL Trust : Blockbuster results Boskalis
>Boskalis (100% HAL) EBITDA up 68% to € 1bn - Boskalis FY23 results: Revenue in 2023 increased by 20% to EUR 4.28bn (2022: EUR 3.58bn); EBITDA increased 68% to EUR 1,016m (2022: EUR 604m). EBIT increased 135% to EUR 701m (2022: EUR 298m). Net profit increased by nearly 150% to EUR 601m (2022: EUR 241m). Note the results include EUR 74m exceptional gains, up from EUR 26m a year agoOrder backlog EUR 6.0bn, down from EUR 6.1bn a year ago.Dredging & Inland Infra...
- Sharad Kumar S.P
Holdings Report - February 2024 KBCS Holdings Universe Underperforms B...
1M Performance - Absolute: Over the last 1M period, the KBCS Holdings Universe posted a return of -3.8% which was mainly driven by single-asset holdings (-5.4%) while multi-asset holdings posted a less negative return og -2.8%. The 3 top performers during the period were Financière de Tubize (+8.7%), Whitestone Group (+7.7%), and Texaf (+3.0%) while the 3 worst performers were Heineken Holding (-8.3%), Compagnie Du Bois Sauvage (-7.7%), and Solvac (-7.5%). YTD Performance - Relative: On a YTD ...
HAL HAL TRUST
DIE D'IETEREN SA
SOF SOFINA SA
SOLV SOLVAC S.A.
GIMB GIMV NV
QFG QUEST FOR GROWTH
ACKB ACKERMANS & VAN HAAREN NV
TUB FINANCIERE DE TUBIZE S.A.
HEIO HEINEKEN HOLDING N.V.
KBCA KBC ANCORA SCA
TEXF TEXAF
BREB BREDERODE S.A.
TINC TINC COMM. VA
ROCK WHITESTONE GROUP
- Joren Van Aken
HAL Trust - Sharp jump in Coolblue profitability
Coolblue FY23 revenue up 2.5% to EUR 2.4bn and EBITDA doubled to EUR 88.3m or a 3.7% marginCEO bullish saying 2024 will be ‘best Coolblue year ever'Despite the promising improvement in profitability, a fair value for Coolblue will be far below the once rumoured EUR 4-5bn. Likely EUR 1-1.5bn is more justifiedWe estimate HAL's NAV today to be EUR 159.2 p/s or a discount of 27.5%. Our TP goes up slightly to EUR 116 (vs. EUR 114 before). Hold rating reiterated.
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Jacob Mekhael
- Lynn Hautekeete
- Sharad Kumar S.P
- Thomas Couvreur
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Lewi
- Sharad Kumar S.P
Holdings Report - January 2024 KBCS Holdings Universe outperforms BEL2...
1M Performance - Absolute: Over the last 1M period, the KBCS Holdings Universe posted a return of +1.2% which was mainly driven by single-asset holdings (+2.0%) while multi-asset holdings posted a lower return (+0.5%). The 3 top performers during the period were Financière de Tubize (+7.5%), Brederode (+7.5%), and D'Ieteren Group (+6.1%) while the 3 worst performers were Solvac (-4.0%), Ackermans & van Haaren (-2.5%), and Gimv (-2.4%). YTD Performance - Relative: On a YTD basis, the KBCS Holdi...
GBLB GROUPE BRUXELLES LAMBERT SA
HAL HAL TRUST
DIE D'IETEREN SA
SOF SOFINA SA
SOLV SOLVAC S.A.
GIMB GIMV NV
QFG QUEST FOR GROWTH
ACKB ACKERMANS & VAN HAAREN NV
TUB FINANCIERE DE TUBIZE S.A.
HEIO HEINEKEN HOLDING N.V.
KBCA KBC ANCORA SCA
TEXF TEXAF
BREB BREDERODE S.A.
TINC TINC COMM. VA
- Olfa Taamallah
- Yan Derocles
ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 01/19/2024
We initiate coverage on Elia Group with an Underperform recommendation and see short-term downside in the stock of 8-9%. Although the company is perfectly positioned to benefit from the required massive upgrades in European electricity grids, its government regulated returns (RoE to remain around 7.5%) in our view are too low to defend its premium valuation, especially in light of the funding requirements for its € 30+bn capex plan. We also have our doubts on the shareholder structure...
EQNR EQUINOR ASA
MT ARCELORMITTAL SA
GALP GALP ENERGIA SGPS SA CLASS B
SSAB A SSAB AB CLASS A
HAL HAL TRUST
EOAN E.ON SE
ENI ENI S.P.A.
BAS BASF SE
CAP CAPGEMINI SE
REP REPSOL SA
CFR COMPAGNIE FINANCIERE RICHEMONT SA
BP. BP P.L.C.
AM DASSAULT AVIATION
SHEL SHELL PLC
ML COMPAGNIE GENERALE DES ETABLISSEMENTS MICHELIN
- Olfa Taamallah
- Yan Derocles
ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 19/01/2024
We initiate coverage on Elia Group with an Underperform recommendation and see short-term downside in the stock of 8-9%. Although the company is perfectly positioned to benefit from the required massive upgrades in European electricity grids, its government regulated returns (RoE to remain around 7.5%) in our view are too low to defend its premium valuation, especially in light of the funding requirements for its € 30+bn capex plan. We also have our doubts on the shareholder structure...
EQNR EQUINOR ASA
MT ARCELORMITTAL SA
GALP GALP ENERGIA SGPS SA CLASS B
SSAB A SSAB AB CLASS A
HAL HAL TRUST
EOAN E.ON SE
ENI ENI S.P.A.
BAS BASF SE
CAP CAPGEMINI SE
REP REPSOL SA
CFR COMPAGNIE FINANCIERE RICHEMONT SA
BP. BP P.L.C.
AM DASSAULT AVIATION
SHEL SHELL PLC
ML COMPAGNIE GENERALE DES ETABLISSEMENTS MICHELIN
- Thijs Berkelder
HAL Trust : Stepping up its listed investment portfolio
>Acquiring 5.3% in Siltronic, a listed German semiconductor equipment maker - HAL Trust filing. Siltronic AG via its voting filings has announced that HAL Trust has passed the 3% holding hurdle, and per 16 January 2024 holds 1,589,636 Siltronic shares, representing 5.3% of shares and voting rights outstanding. We assume HAL acquired the shares by participating in the € 345m exchangeable unit offering by GlobalWafers. Nomura filing. Siltronic also published anothe...
- Joren Van Aken
HAL Trust - New 5% stake in Siltronic
HAL Trust disclosed a new 5.3% stake in Siltronic worth about EUR 140mInvestment out of their comfort zone that for now does not move the needle, either reason to increase stake into double digits or keep in ‘liquid portfolio'For now, no impact on investment case but needs to be followed up closely. We estimate today's NAV at EUR 153.7 p/s, implying a discount of 25.4%. TP of EUR 114 reiterated as well as our Hold rating.
- Sharad Kumar S.P
Holdings Report - December 2023 KBCS Holdings Universe Outperforms BEL...
1M Performance: Over the last 1M period, the KBCS Holdings Universe posted a resturn of +6.8% which was mainly driven by single-asset holdings (+9.2%) while multi-asset holdings holdings posted a lower return (+5.2%). The 3 top performers during the period were Sofina NV (+16.0%), D'Ieteren Group (+13.4%), and Gimv (+10.4%) while the 3 worst performers were Texaf (+1.8%), Heineken Holding (+1.3%), and The Infrastructure Company (TINC; -1.3%). Full Year Performance: On a FY basis, the KBCS Holdi...
GBLB GROUPE BRUXELLES LAMBERT SA
HAL HAL TRUST
DIE D'IETEREN SA
SOF SOFINA SA
SOLV SOLVAC S.A.
GIMB GIMV NV
QFG QUEST FOR GROWTH
ACKB ACKERMANS & VAN HAAREN NV
TUB FINANCIERE DE TUBIZE S.A.
HEIO HEINEKEN HOLDING N.V.
KBCA KBC ANCORA SCA
TEXF TEXAF
BREB BREDERODE S.A.
TINC TINC COMM. VA
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