Resurs Holding (Buy, TP: SEK18.00) - Resur-recting the case

The market appears to be pricing in credit losses remaining high for many years, but we see the potential for declines starting in mid-2024, with early positive signs in March. We also find it likely that margins will be stable from here, which is not reflected in consensus. At a P/E of 3–4x for 2025e, we see good risk/reward. We have raised our 2025–2026e EPS by 3–7%, our target price to SEK18 (15), and have upgraded to BUY (HOLD).

Resurs Holding AB: 1 director

A director at Resurs Holding AB bought 17,750 shares at 14.160SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 52/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years cle...

The worst should now be behind us

Q1 weaker than expected. Earnings scenario only tweaked for 2025e-26e. Valuation support, but short-term uncertainty remains.

Weak Q1 driven by elevated loan losses

Norion Bank (Buy, TP: SEK53.00) - Market still overstating risk

Q1 earnings were solid, with low credit losses the main positive. We still see a favourable growth outlook, with a 2023–2026e earnings CAGR of c9%, combined with 7–18% dividend yields. We continue to find the stock undervalued, at a 2025e P/E of c6x, adjusted for excess capital. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK53 (52) on 1–4% higher 2025–2026e EPS.

TF Bank (Buy, TP: SEK224.00) - High interest in high interest

Q1 extended TF Bank’s >9-year run of a near-constant >20% ROE. EPS grew by 24% YOY, and the Credit Cards growth outlook remains strong. The loan loss ratio also fell 20bp QOQ. We still see significant upside potential in the stock even on, in our view, our conservative estimates. After increasing our 2025–2026e EPS by 7–12%, we reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK224 (206).

TF Bank AB: 1 director

A director at TF Bank AB bought 7,000 shares at 189.301SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 74/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly sh...

Resurs Holding (Hold, TP: SEK15.00) - Credit losses taking their toll

We see downside risk to current consensus on the adj. loan loss ratio potentially hitting an all-time high in Q1, which is seemingly not factored in. Moreover, the net banking income margin (total income / total lending) looks set to continue ticking down after having been stable for eight quarters, which would again call into question if it can remain stable going forward. We have made minor changes to our 2025–2026e EPS and reiterate our HOLD and SEK15 target price.

Norion Bank (Buy, TP: SEK52.00) - Asset quality still holding up

Despite the market’s concerns about imminent credit losses on Norion’s real estate lending, Q1 looks likely to feature the lowest loan loss ratio in six quarters. Current consensus Q1 PTP looks balanced. We still find the stock attractive at a c5x P/E for 2026e, adjusted for excess capital. We reiterate our BUY and SEK52 target price but have cut our 2024–2026e EPS by 3–11%, due mostly to timing effects on the net interest margin from a more prolonged rate-cutting cycle.

TF Bank (Buy, TP: SEK206.00) - Continued credit card growth

Our Q1 pre-tax profit forecast is in line with consensus, but we still believe the market underestimates TF Bank’s strong profitability and growth path in the next few years. We have made minor changes to our 2024–2025e EPS, reiterate our BUY but have raised our target price to SEK206 (202) due to the time value of money.

Norion Bank (Buy, TP: SEK52.00) - A dividend offer you can’t ignore

Q4 earnings were strong, driven by NII and lower credit losses QOQ. We see a favourable growth outlook, with c10% annual earnings growth combined with c14% dividend yields. We still find the stock undervalued at a 2025e P/E of c5x, adjusted for excess capital. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK52 (48) on 2–16% higher EPS for 2024–2025e.

Resurs Holding (Hold, TP: SEK15.00) - Cautiously optimistic

Q4 was largely in line with the profit warning, with high loan losses. The main positives were stable margins and some new profitability efforts. We reiterate our HOLD but have cut our target price to SEK15 (17) on estimate risk and a lack of near-term catalysts. We see upside potential if the market gains confidence in loan losses soon normalising and margins remaining stable.

TF Bank (Buy, TP: SEK202.00) - TF bull

Q4 continued the >9-year streak of a near-constant >20% ROE. With total lending volumes up 6% QOQ in local currencies, the growth outlook from Credit Cards remains strong. Loan losses were relatively stable with few surprises. We still see significant upside potential for the stock, even without any multiples expansion. With c1% higher 2024–2025e EPS, we reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK202 (196).

Resurs Holding (Hold, TP: SEK17.00) - Near-term potential, but high ri...

Resurs issued a Q4 profit warning due to higher credit loss provisions and other one-off effects. We see the potential for a significant near-term share price recovery as macro conditions improve, but the risk is too high for us to recommend buying the stock. Thus, we reiterate our HOLD but have cut our target price to SEK17 (24) on higher credit losses.

Resurs Holding (Hold, TP: SEK24.00) - A bit tougher this time

We expect a tough Q4, with rising costs and some margin pressure. However, we see upside potential to cons. 2024–2025e EPS if the market were to gain confidence that margins will remain stable and credit losses will come down soon. We have raised our 2025e EPS by c5% but reiterate our HOLD and SEK24 target price.

Norion Bank (Buy, TP: SEK48.00) - Focus on financial targets

We expect focus in Q4 to be on Norion’s new financial targets, which we believe should help increase transparency on the company’s future and thus also investor appeal. Apart from this, we believe Q4 will be largely business as usual, with no major surprises in terms of credit quality. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK48 (46) on lower interest rates and slightly higher lending volumes.

TF Bank (Buy, TP: SEK196.00) - Set for continued profitable growth

We expect continued strong growth on German credit cards, although with slight increases in credit losses and Credit Cards opex. We see little upside potential to consensus Q4e pre-tax profit but still believe the market is overlooking TF Bank’s likely solid profitability and growth trajectory over the next few years. After trimming our 2024–2025e EPS by c1–7%, we reiterate our BUY but have lowered our target price to SEK196 (200).

Resurs Holding (Hold, TP: SEK24.00) - Margins on the mend

Q3 was ‘business as usual’, with stable margins and credit quality. We see upside potential if/when the market gains confidence in Resurs’s cost target and margins having stabilised. We reiterate our HOLD but have cut our target price to SEK24 (26) on a deteriorated macro-outlook with higher risk of spiking unemployment.

Norion Bank (Buy, TP: SEK46.00) - Show me the money

Q3 earnings were solid, with strong Real Estate lending growth and mostly stable underlying margins and credit quality. We still expect a dividend policy announcement in Q4, with the potential for significantly greater investor appeal. We also find the stock undervalued at a c4x P/E for 2025e, adjusted for excess capital. We reiterate our BUY and SEK46 target price.

Resurs Holding (Hold, TP: SEK26.00) - Set for a stable quarter

We see some upside to consensus on loan losses in Q3. This should help ease the market’s concerns a bit about spiking credit losses, although we believe it is still too early to price in a return to normalised loan losses. We have cut our 2024–2025e EPS by c4%, but we reiterate our HOLD and SEK26 target price.