reports
- Gerben Hieminga
- Nadège Tillier
Energy price caps are appealing, but are not without risks
In this article our power market experts Gerben Hieminga and Nadège Tillier discuss the energy price cap recently proposed by the European Commission and detail the 10 things they will be monitoring closely in the run-up to, and after, the introduction of the cap
Raiffeisen Research Institutional Equity Daily 17.06.2022
ATX indices review - FFF and NoS changes in IMMOFINANZ and Marinomed Biotech CECE index review - FFF and NoS changes in Allegro, Colt and MOL FTSE Index June review - No changes of index constituents in our Coverage Universe STOXX Europe 600 Index review - No changes of index constituents in our Coverage Universe WIG20/WIG30 indices review - No change in constituents AT: Erste Group - Willibald Cernko appointed as CEO until end 2024 (neutral) AT: Vienna Insurance Group - Results of...
Raiffeisen Research Institutional Equity Daily 29.04.2022
AT: AMAG - Q1 results in line with RBIe but above consensus, major cash drain from NWC, FY 22 EBITDA guidance of > EUR 200 mn heralds (expected) upside to estimates (neutral) AT: Andritz - Record order backlog, in-line results and guidance confirmed (positive) AT: Erste Group - Q1 22 net profit beating expectations / strong core revenues offset by higher opex and weak trading result / guidance for 2022 marginally tweaked upwards / CET1 drop should be only temporary (positive) AT: Oester...
OMV OMV AG
PAL PALFINGER AG
SEM SEMPERIT HOLDING AG
LKOH OIL COMPANY LUKOIL PJSC
POST OSTERREICHISCHE POST AG
ANDR ANDRITZ AG
STR STRABAG SE
SIBN GAZPROM NEFT PJSC
ROSN ROSNEFT OIL CO.
SNGS SURGUTNEFTEGAS PJSC
TCS TCS GROUP HOLDING PLC SPONSORED GDR CLASS A REGS
HT-R-A HRVATSKI TELEKOM DD
BRD BRD-GROUPE SOCIETE GENERALE
TLV BANCA TRANSILVANIA S.A.
ENRU ENEL RUSSIA
SNG SOCIETATEA NATIONALA DE GAZE NATURALE ROMGAZ SA
ATGR-R-A ATLANTIC GRUPA
SNP PETROM S.A.
COTE CONPET SA
TGN SOCIETATEA NATIONALA DE TRANSPORT GAZE NATURALE TRANSGAZ S.A.
AMAG AMAG AUSTRIA METALL AG
SFG SPHERA FRANCHISE GROUP SA
ADRS2-R-A ADRIS GRUPA D.D. PFD.
ERNT-R-A ERICSSON NIKOLA TESLA D.D.
WINE PURCARI WINERIES PCL
Raiffeisen Research Institutional Equity Daily 22.03.2022
AT: Palfinger - Yet another profit warning (negative) HU: Magyar Telekom - Magyar Telekom shareholder proposes a dividend of HUF 25 bn (neutral) HU: OTP Bank - Proposal for a catch-up DPS of HUF 426 from 2019/20 earnings and a symbolic DPS of HUF 3.3 from 2021 (negative) PL: CD Projekt - Company stated it is working on the next installment of the Witcher series, which will run on the Unreal 5 engine (positive) RO: Conpet - Board proposed 2021 DPS of RON 7.28, DY 9.6% (positive) RO: ...
- Andrey Gromadin
- Anton Stroutchenevski
- Artem Vinogradov
- Cole Akeson
- Dmitry Troshin
- Georgiy Ivanin
- Konstantin Samarin
- Research Team
CIS Market Daily - March 22, 2022
MARKET COMMENT - EQUITIES STILL SUSPENDED WHILE OIL, WHEAT SURGE ON LACK OF POSITIVE HEADLINES REGARDING THE CONFLICTMoscow equity trading continues into its unprecedented fourth week of suspension. Polymetal and VEON gained 2-3%, while other FSU stocks were mixed. The ruble weakened 2% offshore to reach nearly USD/RUB 107, while in Moscow it gained 0.8% to mark USD/RUB 104. OFZ (local ruble sovereign) bonds will trade for a second day.STORIES> Russian gas reaches record 15% of Chinese imports i...
- Andrey Gromadin
- Anton Chernyshev
- Anton Stroutchenevski
- Artem Vinogradov
- Cole Akeson
- Dmitry Troshin
- Georgiy Ivanin
- Konstantin Samarin
- Research Team
CIS Market Daily - 22 марта 2022
КОММЕНТАРИЙ И ПРОГНОЗ - ЦЕНЫ НА НЕФТЬ И ПШЕНИЦУ ВЫРОСЛИ В ОТСУТСТВИЕ ХОРОШИХ НОВОСТЕЙТорги акциями не проводятся на Московской бирже четвертую неделю подряд. На зарубежных площадках Polymetal и VEON прибавили вчера в цене 2-3%, динамика акций других компаний из стран СНГ была смешанной. Рубль на внешнем рынке ослаб на 2% до примерно 107 руб. за доллар, а в Москве укрепился на 0,8% и достиг отметки 104. Сегодня состоится второй после перерыва день торгов ОФЗ. НОВОСТИ> Цены на нефть растут на фоне...
Raiffeisen Research Institutional Equity Daily 17.03.2022
AT: Erste Group - Erste presents some insights into the exposure towards Russia, Ukraine and Belarus (neutral) AT: OMV - Key takeaways from OMV Strategy 2030 presentation (neutral) AT: SBO - Final results in line with preliminaries, 2021 DPS proposal of EUR 0.75 beats our expectations, higher E&P spending in 2022 to support demand for SBO's equipment and services (neutral) AT: Verbund - Q4 EBITDA about in line, net better on one-offs; FY 22 guidance wide as a barn door, upper end signals...
- Anton Stroutchenevski
- Artem Vinogradov
- Cole Akeson
- Dmitry Troshin
- Georgiy Ivanin
- Igor Rapokhin
- Research Team
CIS Market Daily - March 17, 2022
MARKET COMMENT - GLOBAL MARKETS SURGE WHILE RUSSIA SUSPENDED, RUBLE STILL DOWN 28% M-O-MRussian equities remain suspended at least through the end of this week, the third full week of suspension. Polymetal climbed 14%, offshore ruble quotes gained 8% to USD/RUB 98 and Moscow quotes 2% to USD/RUB 108.STORIES> Russian weekly inflation still very high at 2.1% last week> CBR Preview: CBR may take pause in rate hikes> Enel Russia 2021 IFRS results review: Dividend payments in 2022 canceled> Energy Mi...
- Anton Chernyshev
- Anton Stroutchenevski
- Artem Vinogradov
- Cole Akeson
- Dmitry Troshin
- Georgiy Ivanin
- Igor Rapokhin
- Research Team
CIS Market Daily - 17 марта 2022
КОММЕНТАРИЙ И ПРОГНОЗ - МИРОВЫЕ РЫНКИ ВЫРОСЛИ, РОССИЙСКИЙ РЫНОК ПО-ПРЕЖНЕМУ ЗАКРЫТ, РУБЛЬ ВСЕ ЕЩЕ НА 28% СЛАБЕЕ, ЧЕМ В ФЕВРАЛЕРоссийский рынок акций закрыт по меньшей мере до конца недели, то есть уже третью неделю подряд. Котировки Polymetal выросли на 14%, рубль на внешнем рынке укрепился на 8% до 98 за доллар, а на внутреннем - прибавил 2% до 108 за доллар. НОВОСТИ> За неделю цены в РФ выросли на 2,1%> Прогноз итогов заседания ЦБ РФ: ЦБ может взять паузу в повышении ставки> Цены на нефть стаб...
- Anastasia Khakhaeva
- Andrew Keeley
- Andrey Gromadin
- Anton Stroutchenevski
- Artem Vinogradov
- Arthur Cherkesov
- Cole Akeson
- Ekaterina Usanova
- Fedor Kornachev
- Konstantin Samarin
- Mikhail Krasnoperov
- Research Team
CIS Market Daily - March 1, 2022
MARKET COMMENT - MSCI RUSSIA -27% D-O-D WHILE RUSSIA-UKRAINE, SANCTIONS NEWS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE INVESTOR ATTENTIONEquity trading in Moscow was canceled for yesterday and today. The government announced a range of measures to stabilize the Russian financial environment, but the measures also create risks for institutional investors. The MSCI Russia fell 27% yesterday, while Russia-Ukraine developments, sanctions news and the OPEC+ discussion are the obvious areas of focus today.STORIES> MSCI to...
- Anastasia Khakhaeva
- Andrew Keeley
- Andrey Gromadin
- Anton Chernyshev
- Anton Stroutchenevski
- Artem Vinogradov
- Arthur Cherkesov
- Cole Akeson
- Ekaterina Usanova
- Fedor Kornachev
- Konstantin Samarin
- Mikhail Krasnoperov
- Research Team
CIS Market Daily - 1 марта 2022
КОММЕНТАРИЙ И ПРОГНОЗ - ИНДЕКС MSCI RUSSIA ЗА ДЕНЬ УПАЛ НА 27%, В ЦЕНТРЕ ВНИМАНИЯ СИТУАЦИЯ НА УКРАИНЕ И НОВОСТИ О САНКЦИЯХТорги на фондовом рынке в Москве вчера не проводились, и сегодня пауза продолжается. Правительство объявило ряд мер, нацеленных на стабилизацию финансовой ситуации в России, однако эти меры также создают риски для институциональных инвесторов. Индекс MSCI Russia упал на 27%. Сегодня в центре внимания остаются геополитические события. НОВОСТИ> Меры, принимаемые монетарными вла...
- Alisa Zakirova
- Anastasia Khakhaeva
- Anton Stroutchenevski
- Artem Vinogradov
- Ekaterina Sidorova
- Fedor Kornachev
- Igor Rapokhin
- Olga Sterina
- Research Team
- Rodion Lomivorotov
- Sergey Kolesnikov
- FRM
Debt Markets Today - March 1, 2022. Steps to Stabilize Financial Spher...
CIS EUROBOND MARKETAnother round of new Western sanctions, including a joint commitment from Europe, the US and Canada to freeze the international reserves of the CBR, caused quotes on Russian sovereign Eurobonds to fall 26-35 pp to 35-55% of par. Ukrainian Eurobonds fell 14-35 pp to 35-37% of par.GOVERNMENT DEBTThere was no trading on the Moscow Exchange yesterday. Meanwhile, the CBR raised the key rate to 20%, so it is likely that OFZ yields will exceed 17% in 5y+ tenors once trading resumes i...
- Alisa Zakirova
- Anastasia Khakhaeva
- Anton Stroutchenevski
- Artem Vinogradov
- Ekaterina Sidorova
- Fedor Kornachev
- Igor Rapokhin
- Olga Sterina
- Research Team
- Rodion Lomivorotov
- Sergey Kolesnikov
- FRM
Долговые рынки сегодня - 1 марта 2022. Российские власти принимают мер...
РЫНОК ВНЕШНЕГО ДОЛГА СТРАН СНГОчередные санкции со стороны Запада, в том числе совместное заявление Европы, США и Канады о заморозке международных резервов ЦБ РФ, спровоцировали снижение котировок российских суверенных еврооблигаций на 26-35 п. п. до 35-55% от номинала. Украинские суверен-ные еврооблигации подешевели на 14-35 п. п. до 35-37% от номинала.ГОСУДАРСТВЕННЫЕ ЦЕННЫЕ БУМАГИВчера и сегодня торги на МосБирже не проводились. ЦБ РФ поднял ключевую ставку до 20%, поэтому, скорее всего, если ...
- Anastasia Khakhaeva
- Andrew Keeley
- Arthur Cherkesov
- Cole Akeson
- Dmitry Troshin
- Ekaterina Usanova
- Fedor Kornachev
- Georgiy Ivanin
- Mikhail Krasnoperov
- Research Team
CIS Market Daily - February 22, 2022
MARKET COMMENT - RTS PLUNGES, RUSSIA RECOGNIZES DNR AND LNR, EYES ON FURTHER DEVELOPMENTS TODAYThe RTS yesterday fell 13.2% to 1,208. Such a sharp fall had not been seen since 2008, and before that 1999. Yesterday's market collapse coincided with public discussions and the after-market announcement of the Russian government's recognition of the independence of the DNR and LNR. STORIES> RTS declines most since 2008, 1999; DNR/LNR recognition> VTB 4Q21 IFRS review: Modest end to year of ...
- Anastasia Khakhaeva
- Andrew Keeley
- Anton Chernyshev
- Arthur Cherkesov
- Cole Akeson
- Dmitry Troshin
- Ekaterina Usanova
- Fedor Kornachev
- Georgiy Ivanin
- Mikhail Krasnoperov
- Research Team
CIS Market Daily - 22 февраля 2022
КОММЕНТАРИЙ И ПРОГНОЗ - СИЛЬНЕЙШЕЕ С 2008 ГОДА СНИЖЕНИЕ ИНДЕКСА РТС СВЯЗАНО С ПРИЗНАНИЕМ РОССИЕЙ НЕЗАВИСИМОСТИ ДНР И ЛНРВчера индекс РТС снизился на 13,2% до 1 208 пунктов. Это самое значительное снижение с 2008 года, а до этого рынок проседал так сильно лишь в 1999 году. Торговый оборот в анализируемых нами бумагах достиг $9,6 млрд. Вчерашний обвал на рынке связан с объявлением о признании российскими властями независимости ДНР и ЛНР. НОВОСТИ> Нефть дорожает на фоне роста напряженности в связи ...
Enel Russia confirmed at BUY, TP RUB 0.98 - Green image, nice dividend...
Still the closest quasi-benchmark on Russian renewables there is Despite the Murmansk windfarm delays, around 30% of EBITDA this year is to come from renewables (around 40% next year) DY of 10% and higher long term (12-13% DY on average in 2022-23e) Reassurance on dividends at the Strategy update next month could be welcomed by investors Mothballed turbine equipment sale could be a positive short-term trigger (with an 8% upside) BUY confirmed, TP down to RUB 0.98 from RUB 1.04 on hig...
- Dmitry Troshin
- Georgiy Ivanin
Russian Utilities - Following Interest Rate Trend
The shares of Russian power-generating companies (gencos) dropped 12% in ruble terms in 2021, underperforming the broader market by 27 pp amid an acceleration in inflation and rise in interest rates in Russia, which dimmed the dividend outlooks and the increased capex risks. Given the depressed current share prices, most of the stocks offer attractive returns. We expect to see investors become a bit more interested in the sector during the dividend season in June-July, but we do not anticipate a...
- Gerben Hieminga
- Nadège Tillier
- Warren Patterson
European Integrated Utilities/What we expect for 2022
Earnings season is kicking off for utilities. We expect the European integrated utilities to post an average 9% EBITDA growth in 2021. For 2022, according to guidance from the companies and our assumptions, we should see another year of sustained EBITDA growth at about 7%. Factors driving this sector growth include relatively elevated power prices with demand still growing, although at a much lower pace, ETS carbon emission contracts reaching record levels, and tensions between Russia and Ukrain...
- Anastasia Khakhaeva
- Andrey Gromadin
- Cole Akeson
- Ekaterina Usanova
- Fedor Kornachev
- Konstantin Samarin
- Mikhail Krasnoperov
- Research Team
CIS Market Daily - February 1, 2022
MARKET COMMENT - MARKETS MELTING UP; NEW US SANCTIONS BILL IMMINENTThe MSCI ACWI climbed 1.7% as global markets continued to climb on the last day of the month, with consumer discretionary and tech names in the lead. Easing US futures and a lack of fundamental drivers signal the global rally needs a new catalyst to push further. Russia melted up yesterday, the RTS climbing 2.0% to 1,435, while a new US sanctions bill and diplomatic headlines appear imminent today, as detailed below.STORIES> Luko...
- Anastasia Khakhaeva
- Andrey Gromadin
- Anton Chernyshev
- Cole Akeson
- Ekaterina Usanova
- Fedor Kornachev
- Konstantin Samarin
- Mikhail Krasnoperov
- Research Team
CIS Market Daily - 1 февраля 2022
КОММЕНТАРИЙ И ПРОГНОЗ - НАСТРОЙ НА РЫНКАХ УЛУЧШИЛСЯ, В США ОЖИДАЕТСЯ НОВЫЙ ЗАКОНОПРОЕКТ О САНКЦИЯХИндекс MSCI ACWI вчера прибавил 1,7%, глобальные рынки в последний день января продолжали расти, при этом больше всего поднялись котировки потребительских и высокотехнологичных компаний. Снижение фьючерсов на фондовые индексы США и нехватка фундаментальных драйверов свидетельствуют о том, что для продолжения ралли на глобальных рынках необходим новый катализатор. На российском рынке вчера настрой ул...
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