reports
- Guan An Tan
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
China Aviation: Airlines -- 1Q25 results below expectations. Weak fuel...
The three major airlines’ 1Q25 results came in below our expectations, with all three recording deteriorated earnings yoy and ending up in net losses. Overall yields declined 4-9% yoy and missed our projections by 4-5%. Negative impacts from the tariff war should be limited and the three airlines’ 2025 full-year performance should be supported by the recent sharp drop in jet fuel prices. Nevertheless, we maintain UNDERWEIGHT on Chinese airlines for their balance sheet issues. Top pick: CSA.
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Greater China Research Team
- Guan An Tan
- Johnny Yum
- Jonathan Koh
- Keith Wee Teck Keong
- Kitpon Praipaisarnkit
- Krit Tanarattananon
- Philip Wong
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
- Thailand Research Team
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Tuesday, May 06, 2025
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: May Conviction Calls Add Alibaba, Innovent, Shuanghuan, Trip.com to our BUY list. Take profit on JBM Healthcare and CR Land. Sector Aviation Airlines: 1Q25 results below expectations. Weak fuel prices to support full-year performance. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. INDONESIA Strategy 1Q25 Results Recap ...
BJC BERLI JUCKER PUBLIC CO. LTD.
A0M4P7 HAN'S LASER TECHNOLOGY INDUSTRY GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
00016 SUN HUNG KAI PROPERTIES LIMITED
00291 CHINA RESOURCES BEER (HOLDINGS) CO. LTD.
1023 CIMB GROUP HOLDINGS BHD
ERW ERAWAN GROUP
ADVANC ADVANCED INFO SERVICE PUBLIC CO. LTD.
MINT MINOR INTERNATIONAL PUBLIC CO. LTD.
PTTEP PTT EXPLORATION & PRODUCTION PLC
002472 ZHEJIANG SHUANGHUAN DRIVELINE (A)
CPN CENTRAL PATTANA PUBLIC CO. LTD.
BCH BANGKOK CHAIN HOSPITAL PCL
AD2 AIR CHINA LIMITED CLASS H
1055 CHINA SOUTHERN AIRLINES COMPANY LIMITED CLASS H
0670 CHINA EASTERN AIRLINES CORPORATION LIMITED CLASS H
01810 XIAOMI CORP. CLASS B
MTC MUANGTHAI CAPITAL PCL
RATCH RATCH GROUP PUBLIC CO. LTD.
01801 INNOVENT BIOLOGICS INC.
MRDIY MR DIY GROUP M BHD
09988 ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD.
TIDLOR NGERN TID LOR PCL
002920 HUIZHOU DESAY SV AUTOMOTIVE CO LTD
02618 JD LOGISTICS INC
MXNU ELITE COMMERCIAL REIT MGNT PTE LTD
09961 CTRIP.COM INTERNATIONAL
BTG BETAGRO PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
- Guan An Tan
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
China Transportation & Logistics: Tariff war posing significant uncert...
The tariff war poses significant uncertainties to global trade. Shipping and ports (MARKET WEIGHT) are impacted due to their high global trade exposure, though their subdued valuation implies limited downside risks. Cargo operations of airlines (UNDERWEIGHT) are hit by both higher tariffs and the US’ de minimis tax change, but weaker fuel prices would support airlines’ near-term earnings. Maintain OVERWEIGHT on domestic consumption-oriented logistics names, with JDL a top pick.
00293 CATHAY PACIFIC AIRWAYS LIMITED
ORI1 ORIENT OVERSEAS (INTERNATIONAL) LIMITED
AD2 AIR CHINA LIMITED CLASS H
1055 CHINA SOUTHERN AIRLINES COMPANY LIMITED CLASS H
0670 CHINA EASTERN AIRLINES CORPORATION LIMITED CLASS H
COSCO SHIPPING HOLDINGS CO. LTD. CLASS H
1199 COSCO SHIPPING PORTS LIMITED
02618 JD LOGISTICS INC
- Guan An Tan
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
China Aviation: Airlines -- Expecting a turnaround in 2025 on better s...
The three airlines’ 2024 results were in line but at the higher end of their guided loss ranges due to weaker domestic yields and elevated fuel costs. Net losses narrowed yoy, supported by a strong international passenger revenue recovery. While the balance sheet issues remain a key negative for the three airlines, we expect an improving supply-demand balance and more stable domestic yields to drive a longawaited earnings turnaround in 2025. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Top pick: Air China.
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
China Aviation: Airlines -- The three major airlines’ 2024 preliminary...
Based on their preliminary earnings estimates, all three airlines remained in a lossmaking position for 2024. This is below our expectations as we were expecting Air China and CSA to record slight profits. The losses were likely due to the sector’s overcapacity situation, but we remain hopeful for the sector’s turnaround in 2025 helped by further demand growth. Having said that, a moderate earnings recovery is not enough to resolve the airlines’ balance sheet issues. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT.
- Carol Dou Xiao Qin
- Desmond Chong Chee Wai
- Heidi Mo Jinghui
- Jack Lai Yuan Khai
- Jonathan Koh
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Kampon Akaravarinchai
- Kenny Yong Hui Lim
- Llelleythan Tan Tan
- Ming San Soong
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
- Sunny Chen
- Wei Xiang Ku
Regional Morning Notes - Monday, January 27, 2025
GREATER CHINA Sector Aviation Airlines: The three major airlines’ 2024 preliminary earnings estimates were below expectations – still loss-making. Healthcare TCM: GPO price pressure continues to cloud 2025’s growth outlook. Consumer CNY preview: Expect home appli...
AS7 ANTA SPORTS PRODUCTS LTD.
00291 CHINA RESOURCES BEER (HOLDINGS) CO. LTD.
CPF CHAROEN POKPHAND FOODS PUBLIC CO. LTD.
600132 CHONGQING BREWERY CO.LTD CLASS A
000858 WULIANGYE YIBIN CO. LTD. CLASS A
600809 SHANXI XINGHUACUN FEN WINE FACTORY CO. LTD. CLASS A
EZQ CHINA MENGNIU DAIRY CO. LTD.
02331 LI NING COMPANY LIMITED
01299 AIA GROUP LIMITED
N2IU MAPLETREE COMMERCIAL TRUST
AJBU KEPPEL DC REIT
600519 KWEICHOW MOUTAI CO. LTD. CLASS A
600887 INNER MONGOLIA YILI INDUSTRIAL GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
00027 GALAXY ENTERTAINMENT GROUP LIMITED
C52 COMFORTDELGRO CORPORATION LIMITED
600872 JONJEE HI-TECH INDUSTRIAL AND COMMERCIAL HOLDING CO. LTD. CLASS A
601888 CHINA TOURISM GROUP DUTY FREE CORPORATION LIMITED CLASS A
5162 VSTECS
599A SANDS CHINA LTD.
000333 MIDEA GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
603288 FOSHAN HAITIAN FLAVOURING & FOOD CO. LTD. CLASS A
0168 TSINGTAO BREWERY CO. LTD. CLASS H
AD2 AIR CHINA LIMITED CLASS H
1055 CHINA SOUTHERN AIRLINES COMPANY LIMITED CLASS H
0670 CHINA EASTERN AIRLINES CORPORATION LIMITED CLASS H
06862 HAIDILAO INTERNATIONAL HOLDING LTD.
CAB CARLSBERG BREWERY MALAYSIA B
CPALL TB CP ALL
2877 CHINA SHINEWAY PHARMACEUTICA
TXG 10X GENOMICS INC CLASS A
1368 XTEP INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS
01876 BUDWEISER BREWING CO. APAC LTD.
6186 CHINA FEIHE LTD
MNSO MINISO GROUP HOLDING ADS (N SHARES)
2209 YESASIA HOLDINGS LTD
06690 HAIER SMART HOME CO. LTD. CLASS H
09922 JIUMAOJIU INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS LTD.
09888 BAIDU INC
123F 123FAHRSCHULE SE
EPIC 1CM INC
Z29 029 GROUP SE
VST VSTECS BHD
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
China Aviation: Airlines -- 3Q24 earnings a slight miss; expect losses...
The three major airlines achieved a turnaround in earnings in the seasonally strong 3Q24, but their core performances still slightly missed our expectations, with core operating profits declining 19-29% yoy in 3Q24. The miss was due to slightly higher-thanexpected costs, alongside yield moderation. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT due to the sector’s overcapacity and the major airlines’ weak balance sheets. Downgrade CSA to HOLD and CEA to SELL after the recent rebound in their share prices.
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Chong Lee Len
- Desmond Chong Chee Wai
- Greater China Research Team
- Jo Yee Ng
- Johnny Yum
- Jonathan Koh
- Ken Lee
- Kenny Yong Hui Lim
- Kitpon Praipaisarnkit
- Malaysia Research Team
- Paula Ruth
- Posmarito Pakpahan
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
- Stevanus Juanda
- Vincent Khoo Boo Aik
- Wei Xiang Ku
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Monday, November 04, 2024
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: November Conviction Calls Add Hansoh Pharma, Sands China, CSCEC and BYDE to our BUY list. Add Sinopharm to our SELL list. Sector Aviation – China Airlines: 3Q24 earnings a slight miss; expect losses in seasonally weak 4Q24. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Macau Gaming Oct 24 GGR up 7% yoy and...
GRU GEELY AUTOMOBILE HOLDINGS LIMITED
CTRA CIPUTRA DEVELOPMENT
BBRI PT BANK RAKYAT INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
JSMR PT JASA MARGA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
00285 BYD ELECTRONIC (INTERNATIONAL) CO. LTD.
KLBF PT KALBE FARMA TBK
ADVANC ADVANCED INFO SERVICE PUBLIC CO. LTD.
00027 GALAXY ENTERTAINMENT GROUP LIMITED
BMRI PT BANK MANDIRI (PERSERO) TBK
7113 TOP GLOVE CORPORATION BHD.
601668 CHINA STATE CONSTRUCTION ENGINEERING CORP. LTD. CLASS A
X2S SINOPHARM GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS H
5162 VSTECS
599A SANDS CHINA LTD.
ASII PT ASTRA INTERNATIONAL TBK
Q5T FAR EAST HOSPITALITY TRUST
TLKM PT TELKOM INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
AD2 AIR CHINA LIMITED CLASS H
M4B CHINA MERCHANTS BANK CO. LTD. CLASS H
1055 CHINA SOUTHERN AIRLINES COMPANY LIMITED CLASS H
0670 CHINA EASTERN AIRLINES CORPORATION LIMITED CLASS H
AXIATA AXIATA GROUP BERHAD
MAXIS MAXIS BHD
YNS YINSON HOLDINGS BHD
RHBBANK RHB BANK BHD
T TELEKOM MALAYSIA BHD
GAM GAMUDA BHD
VSI V.S. INDUSTRY BERHAD
MYEG MY EG SERVICES BHD
ECW ECO WORLD DEVELOPMENT GROUP
TXG 10X GENOMICS INC CLASS A
RGB RGB INTERNATIONAL BHD
TDC TIME DOTCOM BHD
300750 CONTEMPORARY AMPEREX TECHNOLOGY CO. LTD. CLASS A
3692 HANSOH PHARMACEUTICAL GROUP
BBTN BANK TABUNGAN NEGARA PERSERO TBK PT
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
EXCL XL AXIATA TBK PT
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
CDB CELCOMDIGI BHD
NCKL PT TRIMEGAH BANGUN PERSADA TBK (HARITA NICKEL)
2232 CRYSTAL INTERNATIONAL GROUP LTD
Z29 029 GROUP SE
02015 LI AUTO INC
LAGENDA LAGENDA PROPERTIES BHD
PEKAT PEKAT GROUP BHD
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
China Aviation: Airlines -- Still loss-making in 1H24; expect a turnar...
The three major airlines were still loss-making in 1H24, with CSA’s net profit standing at the lower end of its guided loss range, while Air China and CEA were near the midpoint. The three airlines should make a turnaround in the seasonally strong 3Q24, helped by the recent fuel price weaknesses. However, overcapacity remains a medium-term challenge and is not helpful for the airlines’ balance sheet repairments. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Top pick: CSA.
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
China Aviation: Airlines -- 1Q24 financial performance weaker than exp...
The three major airlines’ 1Q24 results were overall weaker than our expectation. Other than CSA which managed a turnaround in 1Q24, Air China and CEA remained in loss-making positions in 1Q24. The top six Chinese airlines’ combined fleet size is projected to grow 4.4-4.9% yoy in 2024 by our estimate; this is likely to keep the sector in an overcapacity situation for 2024. Downgrade Chinese airlines to UNDERWEIGHT on overcapacity and high gearing concerns. Top pick: Air China.
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
China Aviation: Airlines’ Mar 24 operation data was slightly weaker th...
Mar 24 overall pax loads of the three airlines stood at 101-106% of pre-pandemic levels, slightly missing our projected 102-108% and representing some retracement from Feb 24’s 107-111% levels. Overall pax load factors of the three airlines were 0.8- 2.6ppt below pre-pandemic levels in Mar 24, indicating an overcapacity situation for the sector. We expect the three airlines to record positive profits in 2024. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on airlines for their 1Q24 earnings turnaround prospect.
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
China Aviation: Airlines: Expecting a turnaround in profitability in 2...
The three airlines’ 2023 results are in line with their guidance, with Air China and CSA at the mid-points of their guided ranges and CEA close to the lower end. Net losses narrowed yoy due to the recovery in air travel. We still expect all three airlines to achieve positive net profits in 2024, despite CAAC’s latest guidance for international air travel recovery (about 80% by end-24) coming in below our projections. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top pick: Air China.
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
China Aviation: Airlines’ Feb 24 operating data beat our expectations ...
Feb 24 pax loads of the three airlines beat our expectations, at 107-111% of prepandemic levels, helped by the stronger-than-expected CNY holiday effect. Pax load factors continued to improve on a seasonally-adjusted basis in recent months, though still a tad below pre-pandemic levels in Feb 24. With steep share price declines over the past year and the latest upbeat operating data, near-term riskreward for the sector appears more balanced. Upgrade to MARKET WEIGHT.
CHINA SOUTHERN AIR sees an upgrade to Positive due to a better fundame...
The general evaluation of CHINA SOUTHERN AIR (HK), a company active in the Airlines industry, has been upgraded by the independent financial analyst theScreener with the addition of a star. Its fundamental valuation now shows 4 out of 4 possible stars while its market behaviour can be considered as defensive. theScreener believes that the additional star(s) merits the upgrade of its general evaluation to Positive. As of the analysis date February 18, 2022, the closing price was HKD 5.39 and its ...
- K Ajith
Aviation - Downgrade to MARKET WEIGHT due to limited upside and SELL r...
All three Chinese carriers reported lower earnings with weak domestic yields being a central theme. The trio is expected to benefit from cost saving measures instituted by CAAC in 2H19 and this could alleviate some of the margin pressures, though upside is likely to be capped by concerns over high gearing and renminbi depreciation. We are however, most concerned about Cathay Pacific as the steep decline in visitor arrivals for August and continued protests could lead to a liquidity crunch. We th...
- Carol Dou Xiao Qin
- Charles Wong Kok Min
- Eric Wang Zhen
- Jayson Kong
- Joyce Chan Pui Lai
- Julia Cheung Pui Man
- K Ajith
- Katrina Chen Chucan
- Lee Yuk Kei
- Michael Cheung Ho Bun
- Neo Chen Wentao
- Nick Liu Sunliang
- Sandra Huang Jieqiong
- Shaun Tan
- Tham Mun Hon
- Zhifeng Shen
Greater China Daily: Thursday, August 29, 2019
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Economics The Big Picture Financing squeeze may prove to be the Achilles heel of FAI growth. Results China Construction Bank (939 HK/BUY/HK$5.80/Target: HK$7.23) 1H19: Results in line; NIM squeezed as expected, but asset quality improved. China Jinmao Holdings (817 HK/BUY/HK$4.75/Target: HK$5.30) 1H19: Top-line disappoints but core profit in line; stable gross margins. China Molybdenum (3993 HK/HOLD/HK$2.09/Target: HK$2.30) 1H19: Results below expectation; production of maj...
00966 CHINA TAIPING INSURANCE HOLDINGS CO. LTD.
00817 CHINA JINMAO HOLDINGS GROUP LIMITED
0939 CHINA CONSTRUCTION BANK CORPORATION CLASS H
3993 CHINA MOLYBDENUM CO. LTD. CLASS H
1055 CHINA SOUTHERN AIRLINES COMPANY LIMITED CLASS H
06862 HAIDILAO INTERNATIONAL HOLDING LTD.
1066 SHANDONG WEIGAO GP MEDICAL-H
6869 YANGTZE OPTICAL FIBRE & CABLE COMPANY
958 HUANENG RENEWABLES CORP-H
- Charles Wong Kok Min
- Chong Lee Len
- Desmond Chong Chee Wai
- Eric Wang Zhen
- Jayson Kong
- Jie Ying Chloe Tan
- John Cheong Ming Chern
- Julia Cheung Pui Man
- K Ajith
- Katrina Chen Chucan
- Keith Wee Teck Keong
- Kowit Pongwinyoo
- Lee Yuk Kei
- Lucas Teng Yao Yang
- Malaysia Research Team
- Neo Chen Wentao
- Nick Liu Sunliang
- Sandra Huang Jieqiong
- Shaun Tan
- Stevanus Juanda
- Tham Mun Hon
- Zhifeng Shen
Regional Morning Notes - Thursday, August 29, 2019
GREATER CHINA Economics The Big Picture: Financing squeeze may prove to be the Achilles heel of FAI growth. Results China Construction Bank (939 HK/BUY/HK$5.80/Target: HK$7.23): 1H19: Results in line; NIM squeezed as expected, but asset quality improved. China Jinmao Holdings (817 HK/BUY/HK$4.75/Target: HK$5.30): 1H19: Top-line disappoints but core profit in line; stable gross margins. China Molybdenum (3993 HK/HOLD/HK$2.09/Target: HK$2.30): 1H19: Results below expectation; production of major ...
00966 CHINA TAIPING INSURANCE HOLDINGS CO. LTD.
00817 CHINA JINMAO HOLDINGS GROUP LIMITED
0939 CHINA CONSTRUCTION BANK CORPORATION CLASS H
3993 CHINA MOLYBDENUM CO. LTD. CLASS H
1055 CHINA SOUTHERN AIRLINES COMPANY LIMITED CLASS H
INRI INARI AMERTRON BHD
T TELEKOM MALAYSIA BHD
6869 YANGTZE OPTICAL FIBRE & CABLE COMPANY
BIMB BIMB HOLDINGS BHD
AAGB AIRASIA GROUP BHD
958 HUANENG RENEWABLES CORP-H
ISO ISOTEAM LTD
- Charles Wong Kok Min
- K Ajith
Aviation - Signs of slowdown in domestic traffic for Chinese carriers,...
There are early indications of a slowdown in domestic pax traffic, with load factors of all three carriers falling in April. Thus, we lower 2019 domestic pax traffic growth assumptions for all three carriers. Part of the decline is likely to be alleviated by CAAC’s measures to reduce opex, which include cuts in development fee, likely reduction in jet fuel VAT and handling charges. We believe many of the negatives have been factored in. Upgrade CEA and CSA to BUY and the sector to OVERWEIGHT, ...
- K Ajith
Aviation – Flat pax yields in 1Q19; earnings could improve in 2H19 ...
Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the aviation sector. Air China and CEA recorded improvements in core net profit but weak operating cash flow. However, Air China is most optimistic of yield recovery among the trio. This, along with a likely reduction in civil aviation development fund, could improve margins for Air China and to a lesser extent for CEA and CSA. Our top pick is Air China. Maintain HOLD for CSA and CEA, with preferred entry levels at HK$6.50 and HK$5.30 respectively.
- Ivan Su
Morningstar | Like Its Peers, China Southern Airlines Does Not Possess...
For the past decade, China Southern Airlines has been China’s largest airline in terms of revenue and passenger volume. The company now boasts the most comprehensive route networks among the Big Three operators (China Southern, Air China, and China Eastern), and enjoys first-mover advantage in international expansion by becoming the first Chinese member of SkyTeam, a global airline alliance.Despite its market share leadership position, China Southern does not command any pricing premium over i...
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