reports
- Anthony Dick
- Marc Lavaud
- Michael Foundoukidis
- Anthony Dick
- Marc Lavaud
- Michael Foundoukidis
- Arnaud Autier
- Pierre Tegner
Campari : Modest € 100m share purchase to support the share price
>Underperform rating maintained and target price unchanged at € 6.5 - We maintain our Underperform rating with an unchanged target price. The group’s performances are normalising in EMEA (a little under 50% of total revenues) and in the US (a little less than 30%), setting the stage for consensus downgrades. In addition, the departure of the CEO at a tricky time (industry slowdown and integration of Courvoisier) introduces governance risk that might be viewed negative...
- Anthony Dick
- Michael Foundoukidis
Michelin : Volumes weakness again confirmed in August, still driven by...
>Volumes not improving but price/mix expected to save the day - Overall, August volumes continued the trend of previous months, with global replacement volumes positive and OE volumes (strongly) negative, both for cars and trucks. These figures are in line with most tyre manufacturers' messages during the earnings season late July/early August but tend to confirm that the momentum on this front remains challenging (also, we believe, on the specialty side). As a result...
- Anthony Dick
- Michael Foundoukidis
Michelin : Volumes weakness again confirmed in August, still driven by...
>Volumes not improving but price/mix expected to save the day - Overall, August volumes continued the trend of previous months, with global replacement volumes positive and OE volumes (strongly) negative, both for cars and trucks. These figures are in line with most tyre manufacturers' messages during the earnings season late July/early August but tend to confirm that the momentum on this front remains challenging (also, we believe, on the specialty side). As a result...
- Arnaud Autier
- Pierre Tegner
Campari : Rachat d’actions de 100 M€ modeste pour soutenir le cours de...
>Sous-performance maintenue et OC inchangé à 6.5 € - Nous maintenons notre opinion à Sous performance avec un OC inchangé. Les performances du groupe se normalisent en EMEA (un peu moins de 50% du CA groupe) et aux US (un peu moins de 30%) laissant envisager des ajustements baissiers du consensus. En outre le départ du CEO dans un contexte compliqué (ralentissement de l’industrie et intégration de Courvoisier) introduit un risque de gouvernance qui peut être négativem...
- Michael B. Schäfer
Wacker Chemie AG : CMD confirms ambitious 2030 - targets as expected; ...
>CMD confirms ambitious 2030 targets - Wacker Chemie confirmed all strategic cornerstones laid out until 2030 back in 2022 at its recent CMD. Confirmed group sales target > € 10bn and >20% EBITDA margin (>€ 2bn EBITDA) target remains ambitious in light of € 6.1bn sales and € 1.2bn EBITDA (18.2%) generated on average over 2019-2023. The current consensus looks for € 6.5bn sales and € 1.05bn EBITDA in 2025, equivalent to 16.1% of sales. Wacker’s current dividend strateg...
- Andreas Riemann
Puma : Field Trip feedback – Building the foundation for sustainable g...
>Q3 growth to depend on China and LatAm, 2025 to benefit from low profile - On Wednesday we organised a field trip to Puma headquarters. This visit included a meeting with CEO Arne Freundt and a product tour. Major take aways from this event are: 1/ Puma is on track for a sequential improvement of growth in Q3 and Q4 2024. However, the performance also depends on the macro situation in China and the ramp-up of capacity in LatAm. Given rather cautious comments from ot...
- Anthony Dick
- Michael Foundoukidis
Mercedes-Benz AG : Profit warning: China turning into a nightmare
>Profit warning: -20% cut on 2024 EBIT, China the main culprit - Mercedes-Benz issued a profit warning yesterday evening, citing continued deterioration in the environment in China and, to a lesser extent, “valuation adjustments”. In detail, the group now expects:Adjusted Cars Return on Sales of between 7.5% and 8.5% (vs 10-11% previously and VA consensus at 10.1%), with H2 expected at ~6%. Valuation adjustments are expected to impact H2 RoS by 1 ppt. §rch...
- Anthony Dick
- Michael Foundoukidis
Mercedes-Benz AG : Profit warning : la Chine tourne au cauchemar
>Profit warning; -20% sur l’EBIT 2024, la Chine premier coupable - Mercedes-Benz a émis hier soir un avertissement sur sa guidance 2024. Le groupe cite, en particulier, une poursuite de la détérioration de l’environnement en Chine et, dans une moindre mesure, des ajustements de participations. Dans le détail, le groupe prévoit désormais :Une marge d’EBIT Auto ajustée comprise entre 7,5 et 8,5% (vs 10-11% précédemment et un consensus VA à 10,1%), avec un S2...
- Jean Danjou
Richemont : More challenging environment in China and visible reductio...
>A more cautious view on the sector outlook leads us to adopt a more conservative growth scenario for the group for FY 2024-25 and FY 2025-26 - We think that growth in the luxury goods sector is unlikely to improve significantly in H2 2024 after slight growth in H1 of +1%/+2% given that luxury goods consumption in China is showing increasing signs of weakness. While the group and notably its jewellery division (Jewellery Maisons) probably continued to grow in Q2 (ca...
- Oliver Metzger
GN Store Nord : Enterprise turnaround takes longer, but Hearing and Ga...
>Hearing with strong outperformance of underlying market - GN Hearing achieved a strong organic growth of 12% in the first half of 2024, which is a meaningful outperformance of the underlying hearing aid market, which grew at around 4% in our view. The driver behind the strong performance is the Resound Nexia hearing aid series, which has contributed to the strong development around the globe. We leave our segmental top-line forecast virtually unchanged but become mo...
- Andreas Riemann
Adidas : Field Trip feedback – On track for fast growth and 10% EBIT m...
>Impressed by Bjørn Gulden’s focus on products and his positive mindset - On Tuesday we organised a field trip to adidas headquarters. This visit included a meeting with CEO Bjørn Gulden, a product tour, and a visit of the innovation lab. Major takeaways from this event are: 1/ Brand momentum remains strong. 2/ Terrace footwear does not experience a slowdown and take down versions might offer an opportunity for growth going forward. 3/ adidas has successfully started...
- Jean Danjou
Richemont : Environnement plus difficile en Chine et baisse visible de...
>Une vue plus prudente des perspectives du secteur nous conduit à adopter un scénario de croissance plus faible pour le groupe sur les exercices 2025 et 2026 - Nous pensons que la croissance du secteur luxe ne devrait pas s’améliorer sensiblement au S2 2024 après un S1 en très légère croissance à +1%/+2% au vu d’une Chine qui montre des signaux de plus en plus forts de faiblesse de la consommation de luxe. Si le groupe et notamment sa division joaillère (Jewellery Ma...
- Jean Danjou
ODDO : August watch exports surprisingly up, looks like a misleading s...
>August exports show a growth rebound mainly driven by luxury watches - Strange things can happen in August: watch exports are growing even faster than in July at +6.9% y-o-y versus +1.8% the month before (the year-to-date growth remains negative at -1.4%) but this is entirely driven by 14.9% growth in the luxury segment, mainly fuelled by watches incorporating precious metals, according to Fédération Horlogère. The other categories show a significant decline fo...
- Jean Danjou
ODDO : August watch exports surprisingly up, looks like a misleading s...
>August exports show a growth rebound mainly driven by luxury watches - Strange things can happen in August: watch exports are growing even faster than in July at +6.9% y-o-y versus +1.8% the month before (the year-to-date growth remains negative at -1.4%) but this is entirely driven by 14.9% growth in the luxury segment, mainly fuelled by watches incorporating precious metals, according to Fédération Horlogère. The other categories show a significant decline fo...
- Emira Sagaama
- Stefano Toffano
- Emira Sagaama
- Stefano Toffano
- Arnaud Autier
- Pierre Tegner
Campari : Un départ prématuré du CEO qui questionne. Une nouvelle équi...
>Sous-performance maintenue avec un OC ajusté à 6.5 € vs 7.0 € auparavant - Nous réitérons notre opinion à Sous performance sur Campari. Les performances du groupe se normalisent en EMEA (un peu moins de 50% du CA groupe) et aux US (un peu moins de 30%) laissant envisager des ajustements baissiers du consensus. En outre le départ du CEO annoncé hier matin pose la question de savoir s’il n’y a pas divergence de point de vue sur la capacité à faire poursuivre les acquis...
- Arnaud Autier
- Pierre Tegner
Campari : Premature departure of CEO raises questions. A standout team...
>Underperform rating maintained with a target adjusted to € 6.5 vs € 7.0 before - We maintain our Underperform rating on Campari. The group’s performances are normalising in EMEA (a little under 50% of total revenues) and in the US (a little less than 30%), implying potential consensus downgrades. Moreover, the CEO departure announced yesterday morning raises the issue of potential differences of opinion on the group’s capacity to continue acquisitions while also addr...
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Report is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.