ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 02/05/2024

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ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 05/02/2024

We are removing GALP from our ODDO BHF European Large Caps list. The stock has chalked up a performance of +31.3% since its inclusion in the list on 20 March. Our analyst is adopting today a Neutral recommendation (vs Outperform) on the stock. - ...

GALP : Q1 2024 results beat expectations, reassuring outlook – recomme...

>Upstream: solid growth profile underpinned by discoveries in Namibia - Adjusted EBITDA for upstream activities totalled € 591m in Q1, 9% above expectations. The group is guiding for divisional EBITDA of € 2.1bn for 2024, which seems fairly conservative, in our view, and output >115 kboe/d, in line with our expectations. This output should increase by over 30% (+40 kboe/d) with the start-up of Bacalhau in Brazil at end-2025 and which should reach its plateau in 202...

GALP : Résultats T1 supérieurs aux attentes, outlook rassurant. Recomm...

>Upstream : un profil de croissance solide renforcé par les découvertes en Namibie - L’EBITDA T1 2024 ajusté de l’Upstream est ressorti à 591 M€ et 9% au-dessus des attentes. Le groupe guide sur un EBITDA 2024 de la division à 2.1 Md€ qui nous parait assez conservateur et une production >115 kbep/j en ligne avec nos attentes. Cette production devrait croitre de de plus de 30% (+40 kbep/j) avec le démarrage de Bacalhau au Brésil fin 2025 qui devrait atteindre son pl...

GALP : Q1 2024 results: strong beat to consensus with robust cashflow

>Q1 2024: 12% beat on EBITDA, 23% for EBIT and 28% for NI - GALP has just released its Q1 2024 results with EBITDA of € 974m, 12% above the consensus and 14% above our estimates. EBIT came in at € 776m (up 88.8% q-o-q), 23.4% above the consensus. Adjusted net income was € 337m (+18.7% q-o-q) and 28.6% above the consensus. Robust results supported by refining - Upstream: adjusted EBITDA was € 591m (vs € 599m in Q4), 9% above the consensus with lower ...

Fortum : Une bonne publication mais peu de perspectives

>Un résultat supérieur aux attentes - L'EBITDA comparable s'est élevé à 622 M€ (-20 %YoY), au-dessus de nos attentes de 525 M€ et du consensus Vara de 549 M€. L’EBIT comparable s'élève à 530 M€ (-24%) au-dessus de notre prévision et du consensus à 452 M€. Le résultat net a également été meilleur qu'attendu à 430 M€ (-11%) contre 350 M€ attendus (ODDO BHF et consensus). Par division la surprise vient de l’activité génération électrique avec un EBIT de 513 M€ (-29%) con...

Fortum : A good publication but limited prospects

>Earnings top estimates - Comparable EBITDA totalled € 622m in Q1 2024 (-20% y-o-y), above our expectations of € 525m and the Vara consensus estimate of € 549m. Comparable EBIT was € 530m (-24%), above our forecast and the consensus of € 452m. Net profit was also better than expected, at € 430m (-11%) against an expected € 350m (ODDO BHF and the consensus). By division, the surprise came from the electricity generation business, which performed better than expected, ...

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 04/30/2024

BHP's bid for Anglo American has confirmed interest from miners in copper in the context of increasingly challenged production and difficulties in fully completing projects. Anglo’s (Neutral) prospects in copper are now better valued and this is also the case for BHP (Neutral vs Underperform) although not so for Rio Tinto (Outperform vs Neutral). Downstream, Nexans and Montana Aerospace are our Top Picks (Outperform) vs Aurubis, Rexel and Prysmian (Neutral). - ...

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 30/04/2024

L’offre de BHP sur Anglo American a confirmé l’intérêt des minières pour le cuivre dans un contexte de tensions croissantes sur la production et de difficultés à faire aboutir les projets. Les perspectives d’Anglo (Neutre) dans le cuivre sont désormais mieux valorisées, c’est aussi le cas de BHP (Neutre vs Sous-performance) mais pas encore assez, selon nous, sur Rio Tinto (Surperformance vs Neutre). En aval, Nexans et Montana Aerospace sont nos valeurs préférées (Surperformance) vs Au...

Fortum : Good result but significant degradation in hedged position

>Good performance in the Q1 2024… - For the Q1 2024 Comparable EBITDA was € 622m (-20% y-o-y), above our assumptions at € 525m and Vara consensus estimate of € 549m. Comparable operating profit totalled € 530m (-24%) above our forecast and consensus at € 452m. Net income was also better than expected at € 430m (-11%) vs € 350m expected (ODDO BHF and consensus). In spite of lower prices, the drop in earnings was more limited than anticipated in the generation business ...

Fortum : Good result but significant degradation in hedged position

>Good performance in the Q1 2024… - For the Q1 2024 Comparable EBITDA was € 622m (-20% y-o-y), above our assumptions at € 525m and Vara consensus estimate of € 549m. Comparable operating profit totalled € 530m (-24%) above our forecast and consensus at € 452m. Net income was also better than expected at € 430m (-11%) vs € 350m expected (ODDO BHF and consensus). In spite of lower prices, the drop in earnings was more limited than anticipated in the generation business ...

GALP : Q1 2024 results: strong beat to consensus with robust cashflow

>Q1 2024: 12% beat on EBITDA, 23% for EBIT and 28% for NI - GALP has just released its Q1 2024 results with EBITDA of € 974m, 12% above the consensus and 14% above our estimates. EBIT came in at € 776m (up 88.8% q-o-q), 23.4% above the consensus. Adjusted net income was € 337m (+18.7% q-o-q) and 28.6% above the consensus. Robust results supported by refining - Upstream: adjusted EBITDA was € 591m (vs € 599m in Q4), 9% above the consensus with lower ...

Wedbush Morning Call - Apr 30 2024 6:59AM

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