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Mukul Garg
  • Mukul Garg

MOSL : . PERSISTENT SYSTEMS: Strong growth factored in the rich valu...

PERSISTENT SYSTEMS: Strong growth factored in the rich valuations (PSYS IN, Mkt Cap USD3.4b, CMP INR3707, TP INR3660, 1% Downside, Neutral) PSYS posted a strong 2QFY23, with revenue growing 6.6% in CC terms (150bp above our estimate). In USD terms, revenue grew 5.8% QoQ (organic growth of 5% QoQ). EBITDA margin was strong at 18% (est. 16.8%). It reported a TCV of USD368m, with 62% new business TCV. Employee additions stood at 838 after the highest ever addition in 1QFY23. Attrition fell 110b...

PERSISTENT SYSTEMS sees a downgrade to Neutral on account of less fund...

The independent financial analyst theScreener just lowered the general evaluation of PERSISTENT SYSTEMS (IN), active in the Software industry. As regards its fundamental valuation, the title now shows 0 out of 4 stars while market behaviour can be considered defensive. theScreener believes that the title remains under pressure due to the loss of a star(s) and downgrades its general evaluation to Neutral. As of the analysis date January 18, 2022, the closing price was INR 4,349.00 and its target ...

Mukul Garg
  • Mukul Garg

MOSL: PERSISTENT SYSTEMS (Downgrade to Neutral)- Valuation factoring i...

PERSISTENT SYSTEMS: Valuation factoring in industry-leading performance; Downgrade to Neutral (PSYS IN, Mkt Cap USD3.1b, CMP INR3012, TP INR3130, 4% Upside, Downgrade to Neutral)   PSYS reported a strong 1QFY22, with USD revenue growth of 9.2% QoQ (300bp above our estimate) and 17% EBITDA margin, despite seasonal visa costs and robust employee additions. The company’s capability in maintaining its over USD200m TCV run-rate is encouraging and should result in it continuing its industry-lead...

Persistent Systems Ltd: 2 directors

Two Directors at Persistent Systems Ltd sold 20,500 shares at between 2,247.222INR and 2,281.356INR. The significance rating of the trade was 76/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's direct...

MOSL: PERSISTENT SYSTEMS (Buy)-In-line performance, good outlook

Persistent Systems: In-line performance, good outlook (PSYS IN, Mkt Cap USD0.7b, CMP INR688, TP INR830, 21% Upside, Buy)   Also valuations offer margin of safety; Reiterate BUY Despite the weakness at the top client, revenue growth and margins were largely in line with our estimates. The positive outlook on all key verticals and the healthy deal pipeline within IBM are likely to translate into decent revenue growth (8.6% CAGR, USD) over FY20-22. The focus on annuity revenue should further ...

MOSL: PERSISTENT SYSTEMS (Buy) - Revenue outperforms-Margins remain mo...

PERSISTENT SYSTEMS: Revenue outperforms; Margins remain moderate as expected (PSYS IN, Mkt Cap USD0.7b, CMP INR612, TP INR790, 29% Upside, Buy) 2QFY20 revenues grew 6.2% YoY (v/s est. 3.7%) to USD125.5m; EBITDA declined 15.3% YoY (v/s est. decline of 20.1%) to INR1.2b. PAT declined 2.3% YoY (v/s est. decline of 13.4%) to INR861m. Services revenue grew 3.6% QoQ to USD100.5m (v/s est. USD93.8m). IP-led revenue was up 9.7% QoQ to USD28.3m (in-line). 1HFY20 revenue/EBITDA/PAT grew 2.8%/14.1%/9.8...

MOSL: PERSISTENT SYSTEMS (Buy)-Weak performance, but a transitional ph...

PERSISTENT SYSTEMS: Weak performance, but a transitional phase (PSYS IN, Mkt Cap USD0.7b, CMP INR565, TP INR750, 33% Upside, Buy)   Revenue growth remains elusive: 1QFY20 revenues declined 3.2% YoY to USD119.6m (v/s est. of 1.3% decline), EBIT declined 8% YoY to INR0.9b (v/s est. of 1% decline), while PAT declined 5.6% YoY to INR825m (v/s est. of 7.4% growth). Services revenue grew 1.2% QoQ to USD93.9m (v/s est. of USD93.2m). IP-led revenues were flat QoQ at USD25.8m (v/s est. of USD28.9m)....

MOSL: PERSISTENT SYSTEMS (Buy)-Building blocks towards the elusive cro...

Persistent Systems: Building blocks towards the elusive cross-sell (PSYS IN, Mkt Cap USD0.7b, CMP INR623, TP INR800, 28% Upside, Buy)   We attended Persistent Systems’ (PSYS) analyst day, where the new CEO Christopher O’Connor shared the building blocks on which the company will seek to drive a turnaround in performance. Key takeways: Changing sales structure to leverage power of combined offerings PSYS’ new CEO shared the broad tenets of its strategy, which involves various structural ch...

MOSL: PERSISTENT SYSTEMS (Buy)-Growth trends remain challenging-Focus ...

Persistent Systems: Growth trends remain challenging; Focus on new management and changed strategy (PSYS IN, Mkt Cap USD0.7b, CMP INR639, TP INR800, 25% Upside, Buy) Revenue performance soft as expected: In FY19, PSYS faced challenges in its top client, which impacted its Services and IP revenue. Consequently, revenue growth was tepid at 2.2% YoY, while EBITDA/PAT increased 38%/12% YoY in the year. Amidst the earnings softness, the uptick in payout to 92% (including INR2.25b buyback) was to ...

MOSL: PERSISTENT SYSTEMS (Buy)-Margin expansion sans revenues from IP ...

Persistent Systems: Margin expansion sans revenues from IP drives upgrades (PSYS IN, Mkt Cap USD0.6b, CMP INR565, TP INR800, 42% Upside, Buy)   Significant GPM expansion drives profit beat: Revenue grew 2.2% QoQ (-1.4% YoY) to USD120.8m in 3QFY19 (in line with our estimate of USD120.5m). EBITDA grew 18.5% QoQ (+23.8% YoY) to INR1.7b (12.5% beat). PAT grew 4.1% QoQ (flat YoY) to INR917m (18% above estimate led by operating profit beat). Services revenue grew 3.1% QoQ (+1.1% YoY) to USD90.64m...

MOSL: PERSISTENT SYSTEMS (Buy)-Braced for a change at the top

PERSISTENT SYSTEMS: Braced for a change at the top (PSYS IN, Mkt Cap USD0.7b, CMP INR610, TP INR750, 23% Upside, Buy)   We attended Persistent Systems' (PSYS) Analyst Day, where the company showcased - through panel discussions - its capabilities and references in the areas of Data/Machine Learning/IoT/Cloud for catering to industries such as BFS and Healthcare & Life Sciences. Dr Anand Deshpande (currently chairman & MD) cited that the company is on the hunt for a new MD as he will take o...

MOSL: PERSISTENT SYSTEMS (Buy)-Growth dragged by digital execution-ear...

Persistent Systems: Growth dragged by digital execution; earnings cut by 7-16% (PSYS IN, Mkt Cap USD0.6b, CMP INR559, TP INR750, 34% Upside, Buy)   Soft revenue performance: PSYS’ 2QFY19 revenues declined 4.3% QoQ to USD118m (est. of +0.5%). We expected IBM IoT resale to be impacted by seasonality. However, Digital failed to recover from its sluggishness led by a project closure and shifting to offshore, which further added to the disappointment. Digital revenue at USD26m was flattish seque...

MOSL: PERSISTENT SYSTEMS (Buy)-Operating beat led by IP revenues; offs...

Persistent Systems: Operating beat led by IP revenues; offsets Digital blip (PSYS IN, Mkt Cap USD1b, CMP INR826, TP INR950, 15% Upside, Buy)   Revenue beat, but Services and IP contrasted expectations: PSYS’ 1QFY19 revenue grew 5.7% QoQ (est. of +4%) to USD124m. Services revenue (73% of total) declined 1.2% QoQ, missing our estimate of +3.9%. The decline would be lower adjusted for some reclassification (USD1.2-1.5m impact). Within Services, the high flying Digital declined 5.8% QoQ. On the...

MOSL: PERSISTENT SYSTEMS (Buy)-IP drags as expected-Margin beat-High h...

PERSISTENT SYSTEMS: IP drags as expected; Margin beat; High hopes, but limited visibility (PSYS IN, Mkt Cap USD0.9b, CMP INR726, TP INR860, 18% Upside, Buy)   Weak revenues as expected; margin beat: PSYS reported weak revenue (-4.6% QoQ), which was as expected based on the update of IP revenue decline shared by the company toward the end of the quarter. EBITDA margin of 14.8% (-260bp QoQ), however, was above our estimate of 12.7% (-470bp QoQ), as IP decline was ~USD1m lower, headcount decli...

MOSL: PERSISTENT SYSTEMS (Buy)-Marginal profitability beat-Digital sof...

Persistent Systems: Marginal profitability beat; Digital soft; A play on potential margin expansion (PSYS IN, Mkt Cap USD1.0b, CMP INR782, TP INR900, 15% Upside, Buy) Revenue in-line; Digital slightly soft: 3QFY18 revenue grew 3.8% QoQ to USD122.5m, in line with our estimate of USD122m. YoY growth was 12.3% v/s in 2Q. While Digital segment grew 9.2% QoQ, excluding the Parx acquisition, organic growth was 4% QoQ, tepid by its standards. Accelerite was soft too, with revenue down ~17% QoQ. Sus...

MOSL: PERSISTENT SYSTEMS (Buy)-Solutions in sight-Analyst Day Takeaway...

​Persistent Systems: Solutions in sight; Analyst Day Takeaways(PSYS IN, Mkt Cap USD0.8b, CMP INR656, TP INR780, 19% Upside, Buy)We attended the PSYS Analyst day in Pune, where the company demonstrated its multiple solutions ready to hit the market, while also laying out its growth strategy and explaining the opportunities in Blockchain, though long drawn. Appended below are our key takeaways from the event:​A suite of ready solutions to take to market: PSYS demonstrated with use cases a numb...

MOSL: PERSISTENT SYSTEMS (Buy)-Marching upward on profitability

​Persistent Systems: Marching upward on profitability(PSYS IN, Mkt Cap USD0.8b, CMP INR663, TP INR780, 18%Upside, Buy)Top client weakness offset by Parx: PSYS’ 2QFY18 revenue of USD118m (+4.5% QoQ, in-line) was a function of weakness in the top client (-3% QoQ) being offset by incremental revenue from the integration of Parx (USD1.9m; 1.7pp) and strength in Europe (22% QoQ organic growth). While weakness in the top customer was attributed to seasonality in IP (taking away any worries beyond ...

MOSL: PERSISTENT SYSTEMS (Buy)-A stern test of our margin recovery the...

​Persistent Systems: A stern test of our margin recovery thesis(PSYS IN, Mkt Cap USD0.8b, CMP INR657, TP INR750, 14% Upside, Buy)1QFY18 was all about margin contraction: Persistent Systems' (PSYS) 1QFY18 revenue of USD113m (+3.6% QoQ, in line) lost relevance to sharp 360bp QoQ contraction in EBITDA margin to 14.3%, significantly below our estimate of 16.5%. This 220bp miss naturally challenged our thesis of margin recovery-led earnings growth in the company. Net income grew 3.2% QoQ to INR751m...

MOSL: PERSISTENT SYSTEMS (Buy)-Headwinds to near-term profitability, b...

​PERSISTENT SYSTEMS: Headwinds to near-term profitability, but on track to revive margins(PSYS IN, Mkt Cap USD0.8b, CMP INR649, TP INR740, 15% Upside, Buy)We discussed with Persistent Systems (PSYS) about its business prospects amid multiple headwinds to profitability. Key takeawaysThree key headwinds to 1QFY18 profitability… Three factors challenge the 1QFY18 margin performance at PSYS, the collective impact of which should be up to ~250bp+, in our view: ~3.3% appreciation of the INR (~110...

MOSL: PERSISTENT SYSTEMS (Upgrading Buy): Impressive margin beat; Upgr...

​Persistent Systems: Impressive margin beat; Upgrading to “Buy” on expectations of margin cycle reversal(PSYS IN, Mkt Cap USD0.7b, CMP INR568, TP INR700, 23% Upside, Buy)Above-estimate margin was the key highlight of 4Q…: PSYS’ 4QFY17 EBITDA margin expanded 200bp QoQ to 17.9% (ex. exceptional item), implying a 270bp beat, led by a combination of factors such as SGA optimization, bad debts recovery and some pruning in costs related to the IBM IoT deal. Revenue declined 0.9% QoQ to USD10...

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