Risk-On Rotations vs. Weaker Seasonality We are beginning to see early signs of rotations back into more risk-on areas of the equity market -- a bullish sign for the broad market. Short-term outperformance and constructive consolidation/bottoming patterns are evident within biotech (IBB, XBI), small- and micro-caps (IWM, IWC), and emerging markets (EEM). This only adds to our positive outlook for the weeks and months ahead; continue to buy pullbacks. S&P 500. The S&P 500 remains bullish and is...
Uptrend Violations; Downgrading Energy In last week's Compass we noted we would not be surprised by an 8-12% pullback in the Nasdaq 100 considering it was over 30% above its 200-day MA; what we experienced thus far is an 11% decline from last week's high to yesterday's low, effectively correcting some of the fluff in the market. The market needed a breather; it would have been more worrisome to us if the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 would have continued going parabolic. Recent declines have resulted ...
LVMH's 1Q18 sales update showed another rather impressive quarter with 13% organic growth for the group, building on the 12% growth achieved in FY17. Consensus was for +8.5% growth. In reported terms, growth was dampened by a 10% currency headwind, which was partly offset by a 7% positive structural impact, mainly reflecting the consolidation of Christian Dior Couture. We view these results as positive, but see limited performance potential for LVMH's bond complex given the already tight spread ...
European Luxury Breakouts: LVMH & Burberry Group LVMH's recent surprise beat on topline growth is reinvigorating the bullish luxury theme in Europe. Accordingly, we are reiterating our original recommendation (Aug. 2016), and directing attention to the two best set-ups within the group: LVMH (MC-FR) and Burberry Group (BRBY-GB). Both charts exhibit base breakouts from 5+ month base patterns, setting the stage for renewed advances. Buy.
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