reports
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
- Paul Rouviere
- Philippine Adam
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #21
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at the expected growth recovery among e-commerce players and the necessary b
- Clement Genelot
Zalando: pragmatic model shift fuelling an appealing and linear 2028 E...
Zalando's new 2028 plan resonates as a confession of pragmatism within a fashion e-commerce world where growth has become much less abundant. The group's shift from B2C (wholesale, marketplace) to new B2B services (fulfilment services to non-partners, marketplace SaaS provider, fashion blog...) mak
- Baptiste Salaville
- Benoit Valleaux
- Steven Gould
- Thomas Zlowodzki
ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 03/14/2024
Banks tick all the boxes in the market’s current configuration: search for discounted sectors, cyclical momentum, sectors driven by long-term interest rates that remain high and shareholder returns through very high dividend yields. Technical analysis reveals a strong conviction since early March, and this should continue. We prefer banks in southern Europe, where the macro outlook is brighter. Alongside CaixaBank, which we are maintaining in our list of European Large Cap stocks, we ...
CSGN CREDIT SUISSE GROUP AG
AC ACCOR SA
UBSN UBS GROUP AG
BNP BNP PARIBAS SA CLASS A
DBK DEUTSCHE BANK AG
CBK COMMERZBANK AG
PBB DEUTSCHE PFANDBRIEFBANK AG
GLE SOCIETE GENERALE S.A. CLASS A
RHM RHEINMETALL AG
KBC KBC GROUP N.V.
SDF K+S AG
ZAL ZALANDO SE
ISP INTESA SANPAOLO S.P.A.
GEBN GEBERIT AG
RWE RWE AG
BCP BANCO COMERCIAL PORTUGUES S.A.
VOW3 VOLKSWAGEN AG PREF
BKT BANKINTER SA
VLK VAN LANSCHOT KEMPEN NV CERT. OF SHS
UCG UNICREDIT S.P.A.
CABK CAIXABANK SA
MERLIN MERLIN PROPERTIES SOCIMI S.A.
INGA ING GROEP NV
SAN BANCO SANTANDER S.A.
HLAG HAPAG-LLOYD AG
UNI UNICAJA BANCO S.A.
BIM BIOMERIEUX SA
REY REPLY S.P.A.
BBVA BANCO BILBAO VIZCAYA ARGENTARIA S.A.
SAB BANCO DE SABADELL SA
ALG ALLEGRO.EU SA
- Baptiste Salaville
- Benoit Valleaux
- Steven Gould
- Thomas Zlowodzki
ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 14/03/2024
Les banques cochent toutes les cases de la configuration de marché actuelle : recherche de secteurs décotés, momentum cyclique, secteurs portés par des taux longs qui restent hauts, retour à l’actionnaire via un très haut dividend yield. L’analyse technique montre une forte conviction depuis début mars, qui devrait se poursuivre. Nous favorisons les banques du sud de l’Europe, à la macro plus avenante. Aux côtés de CaixaBank, que nous conservons dans notre liste de valeurs Large Caps ...
CSGN CREDIT SUISSE GROUP AG
AC ACCOR SA
UBSN UBS GROUP AG
BNP BNP PARIBAS SA CLASS A
DBK DEUTSCHE BANK AG
CBK COMMERZBANK AG
PBB DEUTSCHE PFANDBRIEFBANK AG
GLE SOCIETE GENERALE S.A. CLASS A
RHM RHEINMETALL AG
KBC KBC GROUP N.V.
SDF K+S AG
ZAL ZALANDO SE
ISP INTESA SANPAOLO S.P.A.
GEBN GEBERIT AG
RWE RWE AG
BCP BANCO COMERCIAL PORTUGUES S.A.
VOW3 VOLKSWAGEN AG PREF
BKT BANKINTER SA
VLK VAN LANSCHOT KEMPEN NV CERT. OF SHS
UCG UNICREDIT S.P.A.
CABK CAIXABANK SA
MERLIN MERLIN PROPERTIES SOCIMI S.A.
INGA ING GROEP NV
SAN BANCO SANTANDER S.A.
HLAG HAPAG-LLOYD AG
UNI UNICAJA BANCO S.A.
BIM BIOMERIEUX SA
REY REPLY S.P.A.
BBVA BANCO BILBAO VIZCAYA ARGENTARIA S.A.
SAB BANCO DE SABADELL SA
ALG ALLEGRO.EU SA
- Andreas Riemann
Zalando : Convincing mid-term strategy, focus now on growth recovery
>Inspirational shopping and B2B as new elements - Yesterday after the release of FY 2023 results and FY 2024 outlook, Zalando hosted a CMD. Major takeaways from the presentations are: 1/ Out to 2028, GMV and sales should grow at a 5-10% CAGR and adjusted EBIT margin should rise to 6-8%. Both are in line with expectations. 2/ In addition to its B2C business (focus on inspirational shopping and quality brands), Zalando is now starting a B2B strategy (mainly logistics se...
- Baptiste Salaville
- Florent Laroche-Joubert
- Jean-Baptiste Rouphael
- Stefano Toffano
ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 13/03/2024
L’année 2024 sera marquée par l’élection présidentielle américaine et l’annonce des rabais pour les 10 médicaments dont les prix sont dorénavant négociés directement par Medicare dans le cadre de l’IRA. Nous tablons sur une croissance des BPA 24e de 8% et relevons nos OC de 1% en moyenne. Nous privilégions GSK (Surperformance) qui allie valorisation attractive, croissance et newsflow. Nous maintenons notre recommandation Surperformance sur Sanofi qui devrait bénéficier d’un catalyseur...
RNO RENAULT SA
ADS ADIDAS AG
ROG ROCHE HOLDING LTD
NOVN NOVARTIS AG
EOAN E.ON SE
G ASSICURAZIONI GENERALI S.P.A.
ZAL ZALANDO SE
REE RED ELECTRICA CORP. SA
GEBN GEBERIT AG
SAN SANOFI
SOLB SOLVAY SA
ASM ASM INTERNATIONAL N.V.
ITX INDUSTRIA DE DISENO TEXTIL S.A.
AZN ASTRAZENECA PLC
GSK GSK PLC
P911 DR. ING. H.C. F. PORSCHE AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT
NOVO B NOVO NORDISK A/S
- Baptiste Salaville
- Florent Laroche-Joubert
- Jean-Baptiste Rouphael
- Stefano Toffano
ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 03/13/2024
2024 is set to be marked by the US presidential election and the announcement of rebates for the 10 drugs for which prices are now negotiated directly through Medicare under the IRA. We forecast EPS 24e growth of 8% and lift our target prices by 1% on average. We prefer GSK (Outperform) which combines an attractive valuation, growth and clinical newsflow. We maintain our Outperform rating on Sanofi which should benefit from a transformative clinical catalyst in H1. We lower our rating...
RNO RENAULT SA
ADS ADIDAS AG
ROG ROCHE HOLDING LTD
NOVN NOVARTIS AG
EOAN E.ON SE
G ASSICURAZIONI GENERALI S.P.A.
ZAL ZALANDO SE
REE RED ELECTRICA CORP. SA
GEBN GEBERIT AG
SAN SANOFI
SOLB SOLVAY SA
ASM ASM INTERNATIONAL N.V.
ITX INDUSTRIA DE DISENO TEXTIL S.A.
AZN ASTRAZENECA PLC
GSK GSK PLC
P911 DR. ING. H.C. F. PORSCHE AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT
NOVO B NOVO NORDISK A/S
- Carole Braudeau
- Carole Braudeau
- Andreas Riemann
Zalando : Q4 2023 profits higher, 2024 outlook in line, which is posit...
>Lower costs drive EBIT beat in Q4, FY 2024 outlook not as bad as feared - Q4 2023: In Q4, GMV was down 3% y-o-y to € 4,450m (consensus: € 4,498m, ODDO BHFe: € 4,474m) and sales decreased 4% to € 3,056m (consensus: € 3,059m, ODDO BHFe: € 3,083m), both in line with expectations. Adjusted EBIT came in some 16% above expectations at € 183m (consensus: € 158m, ODDO BHFe: € 157m) with a margin of 6% (up 140bp) mainly thanks to a higher gross margin and lower fulfilment c...
EQS-News: Zalando entwickelt Strategie weiter, um mit europaweitem Öko...
EQS-News: Zalando SE / Schlagwort(e): Jahresergebnis Zalando entwickelt Strategie weiter, um mit europaweitem Ökosystem für Kund*innen und Partner größeren Teil des Mode- und Lifestyle-Marktes zu bedienen 13.03.2024 / 07:00 CET/CEST Für den Inhalt der Mitteilung ist der Emittent / Herausgeber verantwortlich. Zalando entwickelt Strategie weiter, um mit europaweitem Ökosystem für Kund*innen und Partner größeren Teil des Mode- und Lifestyle-Marktes zu bedienen Das Ökosyst...
EQS-News: Zalando evolves strategy to cover larger share of fashion an...
EQS-News: Zalando SE / Key word(s): Annual Results Zalando evolves strategy to cover larger share of fashion and lifestyle e-commerce market with pan-European ecosystem for customers and partners 13.03.2024 / 07:00 CET/CEST The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this announcement. Zalando evolves strategy to cover larger share of fashion and lifestyle e-commerce market with pan-European ecosystem for customers and partners Ecosystem around...
- Ahmed Ben Salem
- Bruno Cavalier
LHN LAFARGEHOLCIM LTD.
FP TOTAL SE
EQNR EQUINOR ASA
WCH WACKER CHEMIE AG
GALP GALP ENERGIA SGPS SA CLASS B
KNEBV KONE OYJ CLASS B
SLB.N SCHLUMBERGER NV
MC LVMH MOET HENNESSY LOUIS VUITTON SE
GTT GAZTRANSPORT & TECHNIGAZ SA
UHR SWATCH GROUP LTD. BEARER
RMS HERMES INTERNATIONAL SCA
RCO REMY COINTREAU SA
SBMO SBM OFFSHORE NV
EURN EURONAV NV
AGS AGEAS SA/NV
EL ESSILORLUXOTTICA SA
BRBY BURBERRY GROUP PLC
KER KERING SA
PGS PGS ASA
ZAL ZALANDO SE
ENI ENI S.P.A.
RWE RWE AG
RY4C RYANAIR HOLDINGS PLC
P2F PETROFAC LIMITED
01913 PRADA S.P.A.
REP REPSOL SA
SOC SUBSEA 7 S.A.
BKT BANKINTER SA
SBO SCHOELLER-BLECKMANN OILFIELD EQUIPMENT AG
FDR FLUIDRA S.A.
MONC MONCLER SPA
CFR COMPAGNIE FINANCIERE RICHEMONT SA
TRE TECNICAS REUNIDAS SA
LIVS AUTOLIV INC. SDR
DR0 DEUTSCHE ROHSTOFF AG
TEC TECHNIPFMC PLC
BP. BP P.L.C.
CGG CGG
ENOG ENERGEAN PLC
VK VALLOUREC SA
TE TECHNIP ENERGIES NV
FUR FUGRO NV
SHEL SHELL PLC
SPM SAIPEM S.P.A.
SGSN SGS SA
TEN TENARIS S.A.
- Bruno Cavalier
- Oliver Metzger
- Wim Gille
LHN LAFARGEHOLCIM LTD.
FP TOTAL SE
EQNR EQUINOR ASA
WCH WACKER CHEMIE AG
GALP GALP ENERGIA SGPS SA CLASS B
KNEBV KONE OYJ CLASS B
SLB.N SCHLUMBERGER NV
MC LVMH MOET HENNESSY LOUIS VUITTON SE
GTT GAZTRANSPORT & TECHNIGAZ SA
UHR SWATCH GROUP LTD. BEARER
RMS HERMES INTERNATIONAL SCA
RCO REMY COINTREAU SA
SBMO SBM OFFSHORE NV
EURN EURONAV NV
AGS AGEAS SA/NV
EL ESSILORLUXOTTICA SA
PHIA KONINKLIJKE PHILIPS N.V.
BRBY BURBERRY GROUP PLC
KER KERING SA
PGS PGS ASA
ZAL ZALANDO SE
ENI ENI S.P.A.
RWE RWE AG
RY4C RYANAIR HOLDINGS PLC
P2F PETROFAC LIMITED
01913 PRADA S.P.A.
REP REPSOL SA
SOC SUBSEA 7 S.A.
BKT BANKINTER SA
SBO SCHOELLER-BLECKMANN OILFIELD EQUIPMENT AG
FDR FLUIDRA S.A.
MONC MONCLER SPA
CFR COMPAGNIE FINANCIERE RICHEMONT SA
TRE TECNICAS REUNIDAS SA
LIVS AUTOLIV INC. SDR
DR0 DEUTSCHE ROHSTOFF AG
TEC TECHNIPFMC PLC
BP. BP P.L.C.
CGG CGG
ENOG ENERGEAN PLC
VK VALLOUREC SA
TE TECHNIP ENERGIES NV
FUR FUGRO NV
SHEL SHELL PLC
SPM SAIPEM S.P.A.
SGSN SGS SA
TEN TENARIS S.A.
- Andreas Riemann
Zalando : Q4 2023 results due on 13 March – No growth but good cost co...
>GMV down 2% but the operating margin up 50bp in Q4 - Zalando is due to report its Q4 2023 results on 13 March. We forecast a 2-3% y-o-y decline in GMV/sales. While development was positive in October, we assume that November and December were weaker months, also affected by tougher comparison bases. Adjusted EBIT should come in at € 157m which implies a margin of 5.1% (up 50bp y-o-y). While the gross margin should be up 10bp y-o-y we expect the opex to sales ratio to...
- Carole Braudeau
Verallia : Credit feedback – ODDO BHF Forum, 11 to 16 January 2024
The 27th ODDO BHF forum was held in the form of physical meetings (11-12 January) and digital meetings (15-16 January). It was attended by 325 companies (compared with 322 in 2023 and 314 in 2022): ~40% French, 30% German and 30% from the rest of the EU (except one from US). - Our 2024 Forum welcomed 910 investors (vs. 781 in 2023) 53% of whom were French (vs. 58% in 2023) working for 378 institutions in 20 countries. We organised the equivalent of 8,196 investor meetings (vs. 7,...
FME FRESENIUS MEDICAL CARE AG & CO. KGAA
IPS IPSOS SA
SCHP SECHE ENVIRONNEMENT SA
LHA DEUTSCHE LUFTHANSA AG
AC ACCOR SA
GET GETLINK SE
EDEN EDENRED SA
ELIOR ELIOR GROUP SA
DG VINCI SA
BVI BUREAU VERITAS SA
ADP AEROPORTS DE PARIS SA
NK IMERYS SA
MTX MTU AERO ENGINES AG
ORA ORANGE SA
EO FAURECIA SA
NXI NEXITY SA CLASS A
EN BOUYGUES SA
DBG DERICHEBOURG SA
GYC GRAND CITY PROPERTIES SA
KORI KORIAN SA
POM PLASTIC OMNIUM SE
SCR SCOR SE
DEC JCDECAUX SA
TEP TELEPERFORMANCE SE
CGM CEGEDIM SA
IAG INTERNATIONAL CONSOLIDATED AIRLINES GROUP SA
ALTA ALTAREA SCA
ZAL ZALANDO SE
NEX NEXANS SA
ERA ERAMET SA
EZJ EASYJET PLC
QDT QUADIENT SA
ELIS ELIS SA
SOI SOITEC SA
TEG TAG IMMOBILIEN AG
AMS AMADEUS IT GROUP SA CLASS A
KGX KION GROUP AG
EDR EDREAMS ODIGEO SA
ONTEX ONTEX GROUP N.V.
COFA COFACE SA
VLTSA VOLTALIA
SPIE SPIE SA
HBH HORNBACH HOLDING AG & CO. KGAA
TKO TIKEHAU CAPITAL SCA
CGG CGG
TEF TELEFONICA SA
ULA UNIBAIL-RODAMCO-WESTFIELD SE STAPLED SECS CONS OF 1 SH UNIBAIL RODAMCO + 1 SH WFD UNIB ROD
NEOEN NEOEN S.A.
VRLA VERALLIA SAS
DSC1 DUTCH STAR C SHAR
VK VALLOUREC SA
ERF EUROFINS SCIENTIFIC SOCIETE EUROPEENNE
TE TECHNIP ENERGIES NV
TUI TUI AG
AF AIR FRANCE - KLM
- Carole Braudeau
Verallia : Feedback Crédit Forum du 11 au 16 janvier 2024
Notre 27ième Forum vient de se dérouler de manière présentielle (11-12 janvier), à Lyon, et en digital (les 15-16 janvier). Il a réuni 325 sociétés (vs 322 sociétés en 2023 et 314 en 2022), originaire à ~40% de France, à 30% d’Allemagne et les 30% restant venant du reste de l’Europe (sauf une société américaine). - L’édition 2024 de notre Forum a accueilli 910 investisseurs (781 en 2023) dont 53% français (vs 58% en 2023) travaillant pour 378 institutions de 20 pays. Nous avons ai...
FME FRESENIUS MEDICAL CARE AG & CO. KGAA
IPS IPSOS SA
SCHP SECHE ENVIRONNEMENT SA
LHA DEUTSCHE LUFTHANSA AG
AC ACCOR SA
GET GETLINK SE
EDEN EDENRED SA
ELIOR ELIOR GROUP SA
DG VINCI SA
BVI BUREAU VERITAS SA
ADP AEROPORTS DE PARIS SA
NK IMERYS SA
MTX MTU AERO ENGINES AG
ORA ORANGE SA
EO FAURECIA SA
NXI NEXITY SA CLASS A
EN BOUYGUES SA
DBG DERICHEBOURG SA
GYC GRAND CITY PROPERTIES SA
KORI KORIAN SA
POM PLASTIC OMNIUM SE
SCR SCOR SE
DEC JCDECAUX SA
TEP TELEPERFORMANCE SE
CGM CEGEDIM SA
IAG INTERNATIONAL CONSOLIDATED AIRLINES GROUP SA
ALTA ALTAREA SCA
ZAL ZALANDO SE
NEX NEXANS SA
ERA ERAMET SA
EZJ EASYJET PLC
QDT QUADIENT SA
ELIS ELIS SA
SOI SOITEC SA
TEG TAG IMMOBILIEN AG
AMS AMADEUS IT GROUP SA CLASS A
KGX KION GROUP AG
EDR EDREAMS ODIGEO SA
ONTEX ONTEX GROUP N.V.
COFA COFACE SA
VLTSA VOLTALIA
SPIE SPIE SA
HBH HORNBACH HOLDING AG & CO. KGAA
TKO TIKEHAU CAPITAL SCA
CGG CGG
TEF TELEFONICA SA
ULA UNIBAIL-RODAMCO-WESTFIELD SE STAPLED SECS CONS OF 1 SH UNIBAIL RODAMCO + 1 SH WFD UNIB ROD
NEOEN NEOEN S.A.
VRLA VERALLIA SAS
DSC1 DUTCH STAR C SHAR
VK VALLOUREC SA
ERF EUROFINS SCIENTIFIC SOCIETE EUROPEENNE
TE TECHNIP ENERGIES NV
TUI TUI AG
AF AIR FRANCE - KLM
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
Nike cuts H2 sales outlook on weaker demand and increased macro headwi...
Following signs of a more cautious consumer spending and promotional environment, especially in EMEA and China, Nike has taken the strategic decision to reduce supply within the marketplace, thus prompting the sales warning on H2 FY24. Management expects to offset this softer sales growth with a co
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
Fashion: consumers (slowly) reappear as autumn arrives
Due to changing weather conditions and unpredictable consumer demand, fashion markets proved to be quite volatile between September and November, with soft numbers achieved in some European markets relative to the US during Black Friday. As the black clouds lingering over fashion are not set to cle
- Anne-Barbara Nicco
Recommandation Achat maintenue sur les obligations convertibles
Malgré un exercice 2023 plus difficile qu’attendu sur le plan commercial, en témoigne les révisions en baisse d’objectifs de top line, Zalando a montré qu’il était capable de passer avec efficacité en mode défensif avec un focus sur les coûts et un déploiement plus progressif de ses investissements logistiques qui ont conduit à un rebond rapide de l’Ebitda, à une bonne maîtrise de son free cash-flow et à une diminution de 1 point du levier (à 0,8x ajusté estimé pour fin 2023). La...
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