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ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Adrian Gilani

No drama, with Q1 in line

Adj. EBITA in line, we expect higher margins ahead. Minor revisions: adj. EBITA lowered by 2% p.a. 9x '24e EV/EBITA (adj.), 15% '24e-'26e adj. EBITA CAGR.

ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Adrian Gilani
Adrian Gilani
  • Adrian Gilani

Alcadon - Germany still slow, but more orders coming in

External factors continued to weigh on margins in Q3 Germany slower, but more orders starting to come in 13x ’23e EV/EBIT, 33% ’21-’24e adj. EBIT CAGR

Adrian Gilani
  • Adrian Gilani

Alcadon - A strong start in UK, Germany still slower

Adj. EBIT SEK 14.0m (-18% vs. ABGSCe 17.0m) Consensus likely to come down by 3-4% 14x ’23e EV/EBIT on pre-Q3 numbers

Adrian Gilani ... (+2)
  • Adrian Gilani
  • Max Bacco

Alcadon - First quarter as a UK company

Q3 report due Friday, 28 October Sales SEK 268m, adj. EBIT 17m (6.3%) 53% ’22e-‘24e adj. EBIT CAGR

Adrian Gilani ... (+2)
  • Adrian Gilani
  • Max Bacco

Alcadon - Taking a closer look at “Vision 2025”

Benefitting from strong structural growth trends A value-creating M&A strategy Vision 2025 could imply 7x ‘25e EV/EBITA

Adrian Gilani ... (+2)
  • Adrian Gilani
  • Max Bacco

Alcadon - New ambitious financial targets

Sales growth of 20%, EBITA margin >10% Will investigate the possibility to move to Main Market Trading at 14.4x f12m EV/EBITA

Adrian Gilani ... (+2)
  • Adrian Gilani
  • Max Bacco

Alcadon - Our thoughts ahead of the CMD

A deep dive into Alcadon on 29 September Old financial targets to be updated 34% ’21-’24e EBITA CAGR, 12x ’23e EV/EBITA

Max Bacco
  • Max Bacco

Alcadon - CMD confirmed on 29 September in Stockholm

Ramp-up of deliveries in H2’22 to Germany CMD 29 September, we expect updated financial targets 34% ’21-‘24e EBIT CAGR

Max Bacco
  • Max Bacco

Alcadon - H2’22 and beyond looks exciting

Report fairly in line with expectations Healthy pipeline of projects and stabilization in cost infl. Ramp up of deliveries in Germany during H2’22

Max Bacco
  • Max Bacco

Alcadon - Putting the strong balance sheet to good use

Acquires Networks Centre Holding Company in the UK Pays 8.8-11.5x EV/EBITDA An attractive market within Data centers and FTTH

Max Bacco
  • Max Bacco

Alcadon - H2’22 looks more exciting than Q2’22e

Q2 report due Friday, 12 August Scale-up of organization to weigh on margins in Q2… …and notable volumes in Germany set to come in H2

Max Bacco
  • Max Bacco

Alcadon - ABGSC’s Investor Days feedback

ABGSC hosted Alcadon’s CEO at investor day today Ambitious European agenda… …with ample M&A headroom

Max Bacco
  • Max Bacco

Alcadon - Deliveries to Germany have started in Q2

EBIT 13% better than cons. expectations Margins to improve ahead… …as well as organic growth

Max Bacco
  • Max Bacco

Alcadon - Big in Germany (soon)

Adj. EBIT 13% better than ABGSCe Deliveries in Germany have started Trading at 14x f12m adj. EV/EBIT

Max Bacco
  • Max Bacco

Alcadon - Solid org. growth, but more to come

High growth of 22%… …but cost inflation and planned opex pressure margins 13x ‘23e EV/EBIT

Max Bacco
  • Max Bacco

Alcadon - Prepare for high organic growth in ‘22

FY’21 sales up 58% y-o-y ‘22e-‘23e adj. EBIT down 3-4% 14x ‘22e EV/EBITA

Max Bacco
  • Max Bacco

Alcadon - Higher costs to secure growth - again

High growth continues – sales up 89% y-o-y Bigger projects delayed to H2’22 11x ‘23e EV/EBIT

Max Bacco
  • Max Bacco

Alcadon - Leaving 2021 as a new and improved company

Q4 report due Tuesday, 22 February M&A headroom to add ~60% to ‘22e EBITDA Fair value range raised to SEK 90-120 (45-90)

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