reports
- Dan Salmon
GOOGL Newfront Insights: Y’all know me, still the same OG (+ read thro...
GOOGL hosted its annual Newfront presentation in NYC yesterday. The focus was almost entirely on the Google Marketing Platform, especially GOOGL’s demand-side platform (DSP), DV 360. In the note, we review the implications of several new announcements, including: 1. Setting the Scene: The evolution of GOOGL’s NewFront participation & key themes 2. Live Sports Biddable Suite for DV 360 ups the ante versus TTD and AMZN DSP 3. SKU-level reporting + KR partnership bring more commerce media into DV 3...
THE TRADE DESK, INC: 1 director
A director at THE TRADE DESK, INC sold 152,828 shares at 30.460USD and the significance rating of the trade was 100/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years c...
- Dan Salmon
The Trade Desk (TTD, Sell, target to $17 from $35) Downgrade to Sell –...
We are downgrading TTD shares to Sell from Neutral with a $17 target price following tonight’s results, including weak 1Q26 guidance and new insights into material changes in the trajectory of gross spend growth and take rate. In the note, we discuss: 1. TTD has entered a new phase: mid-single digit spend growth? + rising take rate 2. AMZN Ads + NFLX deal may be impacting CTV spend and non-decisioned share 3. Auto is now a headwind despite growing as a % of spend in 2025 4. Joint business partn...
- Dan Salmon
The Trade Desk (TTD, Neutral, $35 target) Initial Thoughts – The Golde...
Shares are down 17% as we publish, with weak 1Q26 revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance the primary headline. However, more consequential in our view is 2025 gross spend growth of only ~11% vs revenue growth of 18.5%. We offer brief thoughts on the implications and some instant industry feedback in this very quick take.
- Dan Salmon
The Trade Desk (TTD, Neutral, target lowered to $35) CFO that recommen...
This morning, TTD announced that CFO Alex Kayyal is being replaced on an interim basis by Chief Accounting Officer Tahnil Davis. 4Q25 guidance was also re-affirmed and the earnings date was announced for February 25. We also had the opportunity to briefly speak with management after the release.
- Dan Salmon
- Dan Salmon
The Trade Desk (TTD, Neutral, $50 target) 10x voting shares extended,...
Last week, TTD held a special meeting of shareholders to vote on the proposed 10-year extension of the Class B/10x vote shares. As expected, the vote passed, as CEO Green controls over 48% of the total votes, and controlled well over 50% of the represented votes accumulated before the meeting.
- Dan Salmon
AMZN(Buy, $270 target) /TTD (Neutral, $60 target) : Amazon DSP adds SI...
Yesterday, AdWeek reported that Amazon DSP has struck its largest partnership with a streaming audio service to date, specifically SIRI, whose properties include Pandora and SoundCloud. TTD is among SIRI’s existing DSP partners, and we walk through the implications for both Amazon DSP and TTD in the note, including the potential for SPOT to add Amazon DSP as a partner as well.
- Dan Salmon
The Trade Desk (TTD, Neutral, $75 target) Continued revenue decelerati...
In this first take following tonight’s results, we touch on: 1. 3Q25 revenue deceleration hangs over the stock 2. Management remains confident that Amazon DSP is not a competitor 3. Kokai adoption reaches three quarters of spend 4. CFO transition announced, other leadership changes evolve go-to-market
- Dan Salmon
- Dan Salmon
AMZN (Buy, $260 target)/TTD (Neutral, $75 target) Part II: CTV footpri...
This week at Cannes, Amazon DSP announced integrations with ROKU and DIS, both of which have driven more questions about competitive positioning in CTV with TTD. • We discussed a variety of changes at Amazon DSP and its positioning versus TTD and GOOGL’s DV 360 earlier this month in Part I HERE. Getting less attention are advances in AI ad creative tools, including AMZN’s first disclosure about adoption of its tools. TTD is not developing its own gen AI ad creative tools but expanded its roste...
- Dan Salmon
- Dan Salmon
- Dan Salmon
The Trade Desk (TTD, Neutral, $55 target) Pushing back on the AMZN =...
In this first take following tonight’s results, we touch on: 1. Results and guide better than feared as Kokai now live for 2/3 of advertisers 2. JBP pipeline at all-time highs 3. AMZN and GOOGL have very different incentives for their DSPs
- Dan Salmon
US Internet: What we know (and don’t know) about China/de minimis adve...
On Monday, we analyzed GOOGL and META’s potential exposure to China-based advertisers HERE, and discussed META’s exposure more HERE. Last night, SNAP cited weakness from advertisers impacted by changes to the de mimimus exemption as one example of the macro uncertainty that led it to pull 2Q25 guidance (see HERE for full takeaways). Led by Temu and Shein, there is likely high overlap between China-based retailers and those impacted by de minimis exemption changes.
- Dan Salmon
The Trade Desk (TTD, Neutral, target lowered to $80 from $115) Three ...
TTD’s first major execution mis-step popped the prior valuation premium (~50x 2025 adj. EBITDA pre-print to ~34x the day after and now ~30x). We see three steps to re-establish the premium, starting with completing the rollout of Kokai near-term.
- Dan Salmon
The Trade Desk (TTD, Neutral, $115) First Big Miss: Our initial though...
TTD fell short of its quarterly guidance for the first time in 33 quarters as a public company (excluding 1Q20 and the onset of COVID) and did not offer a lot of explanation for the shortfall, beyond noting “a series of small execution missteps.”
- Dan Salmon
Takeaways from our conversation with VerticalScope (FORA-TO, Not rated...
Yesterday we hosted the latest in our Digital Ad Exec Speaker Series with Chris Goodridge, President and COO of VerticalScope, (FORA-TO, Not rated), which operates 1,200+ online enthusiast communities with 100M+ monthly users (70% of which are in the US), generating $60M+ of digital ad revenue annually.
- Dan Salmon
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