reports
- Dan Salmon
Trade Desk Inc: 1 director
A director at Trade Desk Inc sold 4,809 shares at 76.661USD and the significance rating of the trade was 50/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly s...
- Dan Salmon
- Dan Salmon
The Trade Desk (TTD, Neutral, $55 target) Pushing back on the AMZN =...
In this first take following tonight’s results, we touch on: 1. Results and guide better than feared as Kokai now live for 2/3 of advertisers 2. JBP pipeline at all-time highs 3. AMZN and GOOGL have very different incentives for their DSPs
- Dan Salmon
US Internet: What we know (and don’t know) about China/de minimis adve...
On Monday, we analyzed GOOGL and META’s potential exposure to China-based advertisers HERE, and discussed META’s exposure more HERE. Last night, SNAP cited weakness from advertisers impacted by changes to the de mimimus exemption as one example of the macro uncertainty that led it to pull 2Q25 guidance (see HERE for full takeaways). Led by Temu and Shein, there is likely high overlap between China-based retailers and those impacted by de minimis exemption changes.
- Dan Salmon
The Trade Desk (TTD, Neutral, target lowered to $80 from $115) Three ...
TTD’s first major execution mis-step popped the prior valuation premium (~50x 2025 adj. EBITDA pre-print to ~34x the day after and now ~30x). We see three steps to re-establish the premium, starting with completing the rollout of Kokai near-term.
- Dan Salmon
The Trade Desk (TTD, Neutral, $115) First Big Miss: Our initial though...
TTD fell short of its quarterly guidance for the first time in 33 quarters as a public company (excluding 1Q20 and the onset of COVID) and did not offer a lot of explanation for the shortfall, beyond noting “a series of small execution missteps.”
- Dan Salmon
Takeaways from our conversation with VerticalScope (FORA-TO, Not rated...
Yesterday we hosted the latest in our Digital Ad Exec Speaker Series with Chris Goodridge, President and COO of VerticalScope, (FORA-TO, Not rated), which operates 1,200+ online enthusiast communities with 100M+ monthly users (70% of which are in the US), generating $60M+ of digital ad revenue annually.
- Dan Salmon
- Dan Salmon
- Dan Salmon
The Trade Desk (TTD, Sell, $86 target) First Take: 1Q25 Revenue Consen...
What’s New: In this first take we focus on: 1. High expectations/valuation left little room for error 2. Political spend and 2025 comps: expect 1Q25 revenue consensus to come down 3. NFLX, DIS, SPOT all still in crawl phase, GOOGL pulling back from Network
- Dan Salmon
- Dan Salmon
Advertising Week Takeaways 2H Ad Trends, CTV Pricing, GOOGL, META, AM...
We had the opportunity to catch up with over a dozen industry contacts and check in on close to 20 panels over the past four days of NYC Advertising Week. In the note, we walk through the top takeaways from our conversations including 2H24 advertising trends, the latest in CTV ad market pricing/supply trends, and views on the potential outcome of the DOJ versus GOOGL Ad Tech case. We also have specific stock takeaways for GOOGL, META, AMZN, TTD, SNAP, PINS, and RDDT.
- Dan Salmon
- Dan Salmon
The Trade Desk (TTD, Neutral, $83 target) More Color on how Lower Fun...
In this first take we touch on: 1. Google: “They are weaker competitor than they have been in years past” 2. Other second half variables: Political spending and Netflix ramping 3. How long until Kokai begins opening material lower-funnel budgets? 4. CTV and Identity Strategy leading expansion of International business
- Dan Salmon
The Trade Desk (TTD, Neutral, $83 target) Quick thoughts ahead of Thu...
Ahead of Thursday PM’s earnings report, we review the set up for the stock, what to look for in the earnings release and listen for on the call, our top questions for management, potential positive and negative catalysts, and the top controversies and investment drivers for TTD, including: 1. Chrome cookie opt-in is mixed for TTD, consumer opt-in rates to come into focus 2. NFLX marks latest walled garden win, could GOOGL ad tech case open YouTube? 3. How and when does retail media revenue ramp...
- Dan Salmon
The Trade Desk (TTD, Neutral, target increases to $83 from $80) Remai...
We are more positive than ever on TTD’s identity strategy (UID2, OpenPass, more 1P data, etc.), which combined with more retail media data partnerships, could lay the groundwork for a future lower funnel business. AMZN was the latest walled garden highlighted for potential eventual inventory access, and we continue to expect more walled garden access over time, including in CTV.
- Dan Salmon
The Trade Desk (TTD, Neutral, $80 target) Quick Thoughts after the Cal...
What’s New: In this first take we touch on: 1. CEO Green expects AMZN to open its ad inventory eventually 2. Beyond cookies: consent will be most important privacy issue over the next 2-3 years 3. Premium content curation becoming increasingly important 4. Pieces of a potential lower funnel business continue to emerge 5. AI innovation versus higher margins
- Dan Salmon
The Trade Desk (TTD, Neutral, $80 target) Quick thoughts ahead of Wed...
Ahead of Wednesday PM’s earnings report, we review key controversies for TTD, including: 1. TTD’s continuing CTV momentum despite lack of access to major walled gardens 2. GOOGL bringing DV360 to the forefront at NewFronts 3. Our expected ~6-7% impact to revenue from US Elections, light primary impact 4. TTD’s focused approach to AI 5. Attractive long-term margin opportunity 6. Buybacks likely to remain the only form of capital return
- Dan Salmon
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