Market tailwinds, valuation headwinds

Kongsberg Gruppen (Sell, TP: NOK1250.00) - Expectations are set too hi...

We have downgraded Kongsberg Gruppen to SELL (HOLD) and lowered our target price to NOK1,250 (1,450). We believe the 2025e P/E of 46x overstates its growth capabilities 1) on an absolute basis, in a scenario where all of NATO reaches defence spending of 3.3% of GDP; and 2) compared to other defence companies as, in our view, the market appears to miss that only 20% of its 2024 sales were from European defence spending.

Q1: Small Adj. EBITDA beat and stronger orders

Kongsberg Gruppen (Hold, TP: NOK1450.00) - Less European exposure than...

We expect Q1 EBITDA of NOK2.2bn (results due at 07:00 CET on 8 May). Kongsberg Gruppen’s valuation premium to European defence peers has shrunk as peer multiples have converged on expectations of higher European defence spending. We believe this is warranted by its lower share of defence sales to EU countries. We continue to find the valuation demanding, while struggling to see negative share price catalysts. Hence, we reiterate our HOLD while we have raised our target price to NOK1,450 (1,300).

Crude Quarterly Q1'25: weaker oil market fundamentals

Kongsberg Gruppen ASA: 1 director

A director at Kongsberg Gruppen ASA sold 5,000 shares at 1,615.310NOK and the significance rating of the trade was 72/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years...

When good isn't good enough

Kongsberg Gruppen (Hold, TP: NOK1300.00) - Strong order intake in Defe...

Kongsberg Gruppen reported Q4 EBITDA of NOK2.2bn, largely in line with estimates. Group order intake surged to NOK45bn, beating our estimates and consensus by 15% and 28%, respectively. A 2024 DPS of NOK22 was proposed alongside a 1/5 stock split. We have adjusted our 2025–2026e EPS by 2–3% on higher-than-expected order intake. We reiterate our HOLD and NOK1,300 target price.

Q4: Slight EBITDA miss, but strong orders

Vital Signs: Actionable charts

In this product we rank the most positive and negative domestic stocks, filter the symbols by market-cap and trading volume, and then divide the companies into sectors and groups. We then manually look through charts leadership/changes, bottoms-up/top-down ideas, short-term patterns that may have long-term significance, etc. We believe you will find this product valuable as significant price and relative moves begin in the daily charts.

Backlog bonanza

Kongsberg Gruppen (Hold, TP: NOK1300.00) - Ticking all the boxes but v...

We estimate Q4 group EBITDA of NOK2.3bn, translating to EPS of NOK9.2 and DPS of NOK18.5, alongside a record-high order intake for Kongsberg Defence of NOK30.7bn after large contract announcements. We have raised our 2025–2026e EPS by 3–5%, reflecting strong order backlog growth. We reiterate our HOLD but have raised our target price to NOK1,300 (1,100).

Crude Quarterly Q4'24: oil market stabilising

Qinetiq Group: 1 director

A director at Qinetiq Group bought 23,359 shares at 426p and the significance rating of the trade was 62/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly show...

Continued to execute well in Q3

Cohort plc - Company Profile and SWOT Analysis

Summary Cohort plc - Company Profile and SWOT Analysis, is a source of comprehensive company data and information. The report covers the company's structure, operation, SWOT analysis, product and service offerings and corporate actions, providing a 360˚ view of the company. Key Highlights Cohort plc (Cohort) is a provider of communication systems and technological services for defense, security, offshore, private organisations and local authorities (U.K). The company designs, develops and man...

Still in a sweet position

Kongsberg Gruppen (Hold, TP: NOK1100.00) - Norwegian premium

We expect Q3 group EBITDA of NOK2.0bn, in line with consensus (results due at 07:00 CET on 24 October). We have raised our 2024–2026e EPS by 0–8% and our target price to NOK1,100 (970) following several large orders. However, we reiterate our HOLD, with the stock now trading at a 70-80% premium to its defence and maritime peers, as well as outperforming Saab by 40% since mid-June despite their similar growth prospects and earnings streams.

Crude Quarterly Q3'24: Lower oil price

Oil inventory draws for the rest of 2024. IEA is wrong – peak demand is not imminent. Both E&P and oil service shares look highly attractive.

Kongsberg Gruppen (Hold, TP: NOK970.00) - Kongsberg Gruppen keeps firi...

Kongsberg Gruppen reported Q2 EBITDA of NOK1,815m, surpassing our estimate by 8% and consensus by 11%. The result was driven largely by a strong performance in Kongsberg Maritime (KM) and Kongsberg Defence & Aerospace (KDA), while this was slightly offset by weaker results in Kongsberg Discovery and Kongsberg Digital (KD). We have raised our 2025–2027e EPS by 5%. We have increased our target price accordingly to NOK970 (850) and reiterate our HOLD.