Telia Company (Buy, TP: SEK35.00) - We expect a solid Q1

Telia reported 7% EBITDA growth in Q3 and Q4 and we believe this robust EBITDA trend has continued in Q1. The solid momentum is expected to come from continued strength in core Telco, but also from a turnaround in the TV&Media business. We reiterate our BUY and SEK35 target price.

Telia Company AB: 1 director

A director at Telia Company AB bought 27,069 shares at 25.480SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 62/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clea...

Telia (Buy, TP: SEK36, +32%) Feedback from NDR in London with CFO and...

We hosted CFO Eric Hageman and COO Rainer Deutschmann in London this week. Please find feedback in the attached report. The focus remains on OCF and EBITDA growth. If Telia can deliver structural OCF at the top of the guidance range, EBITDA growth for 2024 could be c+7% y/y, which would mean EBITDA +3% better than consensus for FY24. If Telia can beat consensus EBITDA by 3% in 2024, given its multiple discount and good dividend yield it should outperform we think.

Telia Company (Buy, TP: SEK35.00) - Solid EBITDA growth maintained

The solid cost reduction in TV and Media is showing a clear turnaround of this business, and supports mid-single digit EBITDA growth in 2024e, we believe. The cash flow guidance was below our expectation, but we see continued medium-term support for the minimum dividend. We reiterate our BUY and SEK35 target price.

Telia (Buy, TP: €36, +32%) Q4 23: Weak OCF guidance, but EBITDA grow...

Telia has reported a mixed set of numbers. On the one hand, the dividend is flat (some had worried about a cut), and looks set to grow up not down; but on the other, EBITDA missed in Q4 and FY24 structural OCF guidance is weak vs expectations. On the call, Telia said that it hoped to come in at the top of the SOCF range.

Telia Company (Buy, TP: SEK35.00) - Set for improved EBITDA growth

We reiterate our BUY and SEK35 target price. We forecast continued strong EBITDA growth in Q4 and a maintained DPS of SEK2 for 2023. We expect guidance of mid-single digit EBITDA growth for 2024.

EU Telecoms Ready for a Good 2024 Steady growth reducing the risk pro...

After many years of headwinds, the EU telecoms sector has now performed in line with the market over the past two years supported by a gradual reduction in the risk profile as regulatory tailwinds help make earnings trends more predictable. In 2023, all of the major telcos outperformed the market, with the aggregate performance held back by Vodafone. We believe the EU telecoms sector is set for a good 2024 with a continued reduction in risk perception helping to support a multiple re-rating.

Telia Company (Buy, TP: SEK35.00) - TV&Media going from sour to sweet

In this report we take a closer look at Telia’s TV&Media business, which we believe will go from being a headwind to group EBITDA growth to a tailwind from Q1 2024. We reiterate our BUY and SEK35 target price.

Telia Company (Buy, TP: SEK35.00) - The tanker seems to have turned

Telia reported 7.6% EBITDA growth YOY in Q3, up from 0% in Q2, driven by service revenue growth, fewer headwinds in TV & Media and tailwinds in energy prices. We see this momentum continuing into 2024e. We reiterate our BUY and SEK35 target price.

Telia (Buy, TP: SEK39, +61%) Q3 23: 4% Telco EBITDA beat, EBITDA and...

Telia has reported a strong set of numbers (Telco EBITDA is c4% ahead of consensus), and has raised EBITDA and OCF guidance on a LFL basis. On a clean underlying basis, Telco EBITDA is now growing c6% y/y. Our view, since we upgraded, has been that although OCF growth has not yet fully caught up with EBITDA growth, it will, and when it does, investors will wake–up to the good underlying story, cheap multiple and attractive yield.

Telia Company (Buy, TP: SEK35.00) - Q3 set to be a turnaround quarter

While Telia has seen flattish EBITDA and weak FCF in recent years, we expect Q3 to be a turnaround quarter for these metrics. We forecast stronger cash flow QOQ to support a maintained minimum DPS of SEK2. Ahead of the Q3 results due at 07:00 CET on 19 October, we reiterate our BUY and SEK35 target price.

Telia (Buy), Telenor (Buy), Tele2: Sweden spectrum ends early with a g...

The Swedish 900MHz/2.1GHz/2.6GHz auction has ended after only a few days of bidding. We show the results in this short piece. We are Buyers of Telia and Telenor and would see this result as a modest catalyst for both.

Northern Lights

Telia Company (Buy, TP: SEK35.00) - Limited risk in spectrum auction

Given its weak cash flow generation, some investors are concerned Telia’s SEK2 minimum dividend will not hold. The upcoming Swedish spectrum auction is thus seen as a major risk. We believe these concerns are unfounded and have a spectrum cost of SEK2.2bn for Telia in our base case. We reiterate our BUY and SEK35 target price.

Northern Lights

Telia Company (Buy, TP: SEK35.00) - Solid EBITDA growth in H2e

With tailwinds from energy prices, price increases and cost reductions in the Core Telco business and TV&Media business, we see Telia entering a period of mid-single-digit EBITDA growth. We believe this supports our BUY and SEK35 target price.

Telia (Buy, TP: SEK39, +61%) Q2 23: Telco business drives a Group EB...

We upgraded Telia after the good Q1 numbers, but the rally was offset by concerns around the TV & Media business and the upcoming spectrum auction. We think the worries about the spectrum auction are misplaced, and although the media business has had a poor quarter, the Telco business has more than offset this, and Group EBITDA is +2.3% ahead of consensus expectations.

Telia Company (Buy, TP: SEK35.00) - Buy the dip

We believe TV&Media will again push overall EBITDA growth into negative territory in Q2 (results due at 07:00 CET on 20 July). However, we expect a much better H2, driven by price increases, easier comparables, and accelerated cost savings. We reiterate our BUY and SEK35 target price.

Telia Company (Buy, TP: SEK35.00) - Past the trough

We expect EBITDA growth YOY to improve from the negative growth in Q1 driven by price increases, cost savings and easier comparables. We also believe the negative cash flow was a low point. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK35 (34).

Telia (Buy, TP: SEK39, +46%) from Neutral Q1 23: Good results and Dan...

We have felt for some time that Telia would at some point and be the next Telenor: a catch-up trade reversing under-performance as bear arguments are largely dismissed. We think that these results and the Danish sale will be that catalyst, and as such we upgrade to Buy.