Telia Company (Buy, TP: SEK38.50) - Cost reductions visible in Q1e

Telia’s Q1 report is due at 07:00 CET on 24 April. Due to a changed reporting structure, there is no meaningful consensus. However, we believe our forecast will be about in-line with an updated consensus. We see an acceleration of EBITDA growth to >5% following a personnel reduction. We reiterate our BUY and raise the target price to SEK38.50 (38).

Revised estimates due to divisional split

Improving cash flows, but still pricey

Savings to boost solid EBITDA growth

TMT hybrids offer good value/Look for quality in the belly of the curv...

In this report we evaluate spreads in the TMT hybrids space. As the credit space still looks relatively well bid, TMT hybrid yields offer an attractive opportunity with yields above 3.5%. Higher quality TMT hybrids or lower duration TMT hybrids look most attractive from a relative value standpoint, such as the Telia, Orange and KPN hybrids. The risk/return perspective of the Infineon hybrid note looks unattractive.

Coffee, Croissants & Credit/OFGEM, Telefonica, Telia, Public Storage, ...

Utilities - UK power bills to rise by 6% in April

Divests TV & Media

Time to prove the improvements

Telia Company (Buy, TP: SEK38.00) - Gearing up for a solid 2025e

Telia reported a neutral Q4, with service revenue and EBITDA about in line with consensus. Guidance from the CMD was also reiterated. With major cost savings following a personnel reduction, we believe Telia can exceed EBITDA and cash flow ambitions for 2025e. We reiterate our BUY and SEK38 target price.

Telia (Neutral, TP: SEK 39, +23%) Q4 24: Slightly weak numbers, but so...

Telia has reported a sightly weak set of results at the revenue and EBITDA level (-0.4% and - 0.6% miss vs consensus expectations respectively), but ahead at OpFCF and FCF. Guidance has been reiterated for 2025. These results are not good enough to propel Telia into a new multiple range in our view, as numbers are unlikely to move up, but we think the share price move today is an over-reaction, given that y/y Telco SR and EBITDA trends have improved sequentially. If Telia can deliver on its prom...

An uneventful report

Heads-up for report 30 January

Telia Company (Buy, TP: SEK38.00) - Top sector pick for Q4 and 2025

Following a cost savings programme and lowered content costs in TV & Media, we forecast 8% EBITDA growth in 2025, among the best in European telecom. With SEK2.5bn in incremental adj. EBITDA, we also expect Telia to cover the dividend for the first time in four years. We reiterate our BUY and SEK38 target price.

Growth uncertainty as inflation tapers off

Will '25 guidance hold?

Expert speaker takeaways: ARPU and capex plans

Growth at risk

TMT hybrid yields trended lower/Move up in quality

In this report we evaluate spreads in the TMT hybrids space. Over the year, TMT hybrid notes have performed well. However, we now think the tightening potential over senior notes is more limited. One can move up in quality (or lower duration) without giving up much additional spread.

Telia Company (Buy, TP: SEK38.00) - Performing despite weaker top line

Telia reported a soft top line, but still reported 1.7% EBITDA growth YOY. For Q4e, we see an acceleration of EBITDA growth to 6%, which we expect to continue into 2025. We reiterate our BUY and SEK38 target price.

Improving costs, questions on growth