Growth uncertainty as inflation tapers off

Will '25 guidance hold?

Expert speaker takeaways: ARPU and capex plans

Growth at risk

TMT hybrid yields trended lower/Move up in quality

In this report we evaluate spreads in the TMT hybrids space. Over the year, TMT hybrid notes have performed well. However, we now think the tightening potential over senior notes is more limited. One can move up in quality (or lower duration) without giving up much additional spread.

Telia Company (Buy, TP: SEK38.00) - Performing despite weaker top line

Telia reported a soft top line, but still reported 1.7% EBITDA growth YOY. For Q4e, we see an acceleration of EBITDA growth to 6%, which we expect to continue into 2025. We reiterate our BUY and SEK38 target price.

Improving costs, questions on growth

Telia (Neutral, TP: SEK 35, +7%) Q3 24: Good numbers, Sept CMD provid...

Telia has reported a good set of numbers at the EBITDA level but a little weak at SR. This might be the pattern for the next few quarters, as cost is taken out, but SR stagnates in the run-up to price increases.

Coffee, Croissants & Credit/Telia, Orange

Telecom: Telia 3Q24 results look solid. Orange 3Q24 revenue update has no surprises

Better cash flow on lower capex

Heads-up for report 24 October

Telia Company (Buy, TP: SEK38.00) - Solid 2025e EBITDA momentum

We reiterate our BUY and SEK38 target price ahead of the Q3 report (due at 07:00 CET on 24 October). Telia has indicated negative EBITDA growth YOY on tough comparables in the quarter, but we believe cost savings should lead to high-single-digit EBITDA growth for 2025.

Guidance risk and stretched valuation

Well-guided flattish adj. EBITDA growth in Q3e. Share is priced for perfection, which we argue is riskier than it looks - SELL.

Investor update takeaways - stay cautious

Telia (Neutral, SEK33, -4%) Supportive CMD, but not enough to sustain ...

We have been long-term Buyers of Telia, The shares are up 39% YTD total return vs the sector 24%, and there is now minimal upside to our target.

Coffee, Croissants & Credit/Telia, Segro

Telecom - Telia provides a strong EBITDA growth outlook

Targets above market expectations

Heads-up for investor update on 26 Sep

Telia Company (Buy, TP: SEK38.00) - Continued BUY over CMD

Telia stock has outperformed the market YTD. Further, we believe the new cost-cutting programme should result in superior EBITDA growth for 2025e. We also see downside potential for capex guidance at the CMD, supporting a stronger cash flow than what consensus factors in. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK38 (34.5).

Major staff cuts: 16% '26e FCF upgrade

Large layoffs across the board lift margins materially. '25e-'26e adj. EBITDA up 5-4%, '26e FCF up 16%. Keep HOLD, but more surprises could come at the CMD.