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Wallenstam AB: 1 director

A director at Wallenstam AB bought 16,000 shares at 47.180SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 55/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly...

Q1 reporting season kicks off

Q1 reporting season kicked off this week, with results from Nyfosa, Entra, Wallenstam, Fabege, KMC Properties, Pandox, and Catena. In other news, Public Property Invest is to be listed on the Oslo stock exchange on 29 April. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.75% for 2024e and 5.04% for 2025e.

SpareBank 1 Helgeland (Hold, TP: NOK134.00) - Turn in NII momentum

Helped by strong trading income, HELG reported a Q1 ROE of ~12% versus its >11% target, despite the pre-announced elevated loan losses. With one less interest day and margin pressure, ‘real NII’ fell 2.2% QOQ. While down QOQ, the CET1 ratio remained solid at 18.1% (>16.5% target). We have cut our 2025–2026e EPS by ~3–5%, driven by lower NII, and lowered our target price to NOK134 (139). Trading at a 2025e P/E of ~9.0x, we continue to find a more attractive risk/reward elsewhere in the sector and...

Wallenstam (Sell, TP: SEK40.00) - Eyeing project starts once again

We consider the Q1 results neutral, and, adjusting for a JV one-off, we were in line on PFPM. Wallenstam is looking to start a development project in Q2 (only the second since Q3 2022), and management stated that rents have risen considerably in new developments and that it will only start projects in the best locations to meet demand right now. We consider the valuation demanding on cash earnings, and reiterate our SELL and our SEK40 target price.

8% EBIT on beat

Borregaard (Buy, TP: NOK200.00) - Q1 met expectations

The Q1 results were in line with expectations. While the BioSolutions segment beat our forecast due to higher volumes and prices, the Fine Chemicals segment saw lower deliveries than expected. We expect some of these volumes to revert and boost the Q2 result in Fine Chemicals. The BioMaterials segment was somewhat below our forecast, after a majority of the price negotiations for 2024 have been finalised. Demand appears to be rather strong for specialty cellulose and we thus see upside potential...

NOK winner, and a Q1 beat

Q1 EBITDA +3% above, higher volumes in '24. Potential for higher prices in '24: GP cut and pulp prices up. NOK winner: MTM EPS of NOK +12, long-term NOK +14.

DNB Bank ASA: 1 director

A director at DNB Bank ASA bought 6,000 shares at 205.710NOK and the significance rating of the trade was 57/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly ...

EPBD the big story this week

The Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD) was approved on 12 April, requiring the modernisation of existing real estate in the EU, and will soon enter the Official Journal of the EU. In other news, KMC Properties bought a new asset and appointed an interim CEO, JM got a new CEO, while Castellum announced a divestment and new leases, and Atrium Ljungberg kicked off Q1 reporting season. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.74% for 2024e and 5.01% for 2...

Nordea (Buy, TP: SEK169.00) - Buy in the buyback pause

The positive NII trend in Q1 underpins Nordea’s resilient NII outlook, where we forecast flat NII in 2025 versus 2023 despite lower rates. We expect the paused buybacks to resume by year-end, and accelerate in 2025, and that Nordea will still provide 10–11% in total yields for 2024–2026. We expect Nordea to retain an ROE above or around 15% for 2024–2026, and thus find the P/BV of c1.1x too low. We have raised our 2025e EPS by c2% and our target price to SEK169, and we reiterate our BUY.

Citycon OYJ: Regular update

Our credit view of this issuer reflects its significant exposure towards necessity shopping and high leverage.

SpareBank 1 Helgeland (Hold, TP: NOK139.00) - Set for elevated loan lo...

With cNOK55m (58bp) of pre-announced loan losses, but prospects for solid revenue momentum, we expect a Q1 ROE of 11.0%, in line with its >11% target. With ample ~2.2%-points headroom to its capital requirement (including a 1% management buffer) at end-2023, we see scope for payout ratios of >80% over our forecast horizon. That said, with the stock trading at a 2025e P/E of ~8.7x, we continue to find a more attractive risk/reward elsewhere in the sector. We reiterate our HOLD, but have lowered o...

Renovation rules now a reality

The Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD) was approved on 12 April, requiring the modernisation of existing real estate in the EU, and will soon enter the Official Journal of the EU. Member states will have two years to incorporate the provisions into their national legislation. While Q1 is Nordic construction’s low season due to winter effects, we see some downside risk to Q1e consensus and longer-term to 2024–2026e EBIT on lower development gains. We recommend a stock-picking approa...

Peab (Sell, TP: SEK58.00) - Consensus too bullish, too soon

With solid announced orders in Q1, we expect order intake above consensus, but EBIT below due to the cold Nordic winter and early Easter (results due 6 May (time TBA)). We also believe consensus is too bullish on the speed of Property Development’s recovery. We find the recent share price rally an overreaction and have downgraded to SELL (HOLD), with a raised target price of SEK58 (52), reflecting our updated estimates and peer valuation.

Borregaard (Buy, TP: NOK200.00) - Improving conditions for chemicals

We expect Borregaard to report a Q1 EPS of NOK2.0 (results due at 7:00 CET on 24 April), mostly in line with Q1 2023. We estimate the largest YOY change this year to be the absence of a NOK30m–40m loss on synthetic vanillin trading in Q1 2023. However, we expect lower bio-vanillin prices to lead to a corresponding NOK30m–40m lower result this year. Also, somewhat higher wood costs should be largely offset by higher volumes. The most recent comments from Borregaard and its chemical peers have sug...