reports
- Pierre FerraguÊ
Bible 4Q25 - Semicap: growth outlook strengthens, but less than the do...
Today, we are publishing the Semicap Equipment section of our 30th Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible. The Tech Bible is a must-read for any tech investor, as it summarizes the quarterly earnings reports from the over 140 companies we track, providing an update on our key perspectives and convictions. In the coming weeks we will publish sections on Automotive, Hyperscale & Cloud, Telecom Equipment, PCs, Enterprise IT, and Foundry. 4Q25 semicap revenues increased 9% QoQ led by DRAM, while China...
- Pierre FerraguÊ
The Citrini report: a revival of Marxism.
The Citrini report is an interesting thought experiment. It qualifies fully as neo-marxist, calling for the tendency of profit rates to fall. Like Marx 165 years ago, the authors are nevertheless getting a couple of things wrong. Click the link below for our thoughts and our perspective on the matter.
TSLA TESLA INC
NVDA NVIDIA CORPORATION
LRCX LAM RESEARCH CORPORATION
AMAT APPLIED MATERIALS INC.
2330 TSMC
ASM ASM INTERNATIONAL N.V.
8035 TOKYO ELECTRON LTD.
ASML ASML HOLDING N.V.
AAPL ASML HOLDING NV
ARM APPLE INC.
AAPL US ARM HOLDINGS PLC
APPLE INC
- Pierre FerraguÊ
- Pierre FerraguÊ
- Pierre FerraguÊ
- Pierre FerraguÊ
Strengthening AI infrastructure outlook: Implications for semicap
The last earnings season provided tangible indications that both 2026 and 2027 will be very strong growth years for AI infrastructure, a view confirmed by TSMC yesterday. Please see the link for the implications and our updated view on semicap vendors.
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Int'l Compass: Global Equity Strategy
"Lockout Rally" Underway; Downgrading China We had a near-term bullish outlook on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and the S&P 500 (SPX) from 4/22/25 to 11/18/25. After being near-term neutral for a week, we flipped back to bullish in our 11/25/25 Compass, all while maintaining our intermediate-term bullish outlook (as of our 5/14/25 Compass). We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6480-6520 on SPX and $135.70 on ACWI-US continue to hold. We will maintain our bullish intermediate...
Moody's Ratings upgrades ASML's rating to A1, outlook stable
Moody's Ratings (Moody's) upgraded ASML Holding N.V.'s (ASML) senior unsecured ratings to A1 from A2. Concurrently, we have affirmed its P-1 short term issuer rating and P-1 short term rating of ASML's €1.5 billion commercial paper program. The outlook changed to stable from positive. RATINGS RATI...
- Pierre FerraguÊ
- Rolf Bulk
- Pierre FerraguÊ
Semicon West: 2026 outlook? Does AI drive growth? DRAM architectures? ...
Last week we attended the 2025 edition of the Semicon West conference, the key event for investors focused on the semiconductor equipment market. Over two days we hosted more than a dozen meetings with companies across the semiconductor value chain. Here are our key takeaways.
TSFA TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR MANUFACTURING CO. LTD. SPONSORED ADR
NVDA NVIDIA CORPORATION
MU MICRON TECHNOLOGY INC.
LRCX LAM RESEARCH CORPORATION
AMAT APPLIED MATERIALS INC.
BSI BE SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRIES N.V.
2330 TSMC
SOI SOITEC SA
ASM ASM INTERNATIONAL N.V.
8035 TOKYO ELECTRON LTD.
KLAC KLA CORPORATION
AMD ASML HOLDING N.V.
ASML ASML HOLDING NV
AVGO ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES INC.
SOH1 ASML
BESI BROADCOM INC.
SOITEC
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Int'l Compass: Global Equity Strategy
Stick With Global Technology; China Breaking Out We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int'l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment. We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 6028-6059 and $125-$126. Our bullish near-term outlook will remain in place as long as the 4+ month uptrend continues on ACWI...
- Pierre FerraguÊ
Semicap and the $3tn AI bull-case: material upside, but well below the...
We published earlier this week our updated view on the Semicap rally, looking at the implication of AI spending tripling by 2030 for WFE spending. Today, we publish a follow-up looking at the implications of the $3tn AI bull case for Semicap on a single slide.
- Pierre FerraguÊ
- Pierre FerraguÊ
TSLA TESLA INC
NVDA NVIDIA CORPORATION
COHR COHERENT INC.
AMAT APPLIED MATERIALS INC.
2330 TSMC
00992 LENOVO GROUP LIMITED
3661 ALCHIP TECHNOLOGIES INC.
00700 TENCENT HOLDINGS LTD.
CSCO ASML HOLDING N.V.
ASML CISCO SYSTEMS INC.
40978Z ASML HOLDING NV
2357 TT HUAWEI TECHNOLOGIES CO
ASUSTEK COMPUTER
- Pierre FerraguÊ
- Pierre FerraguÊ
- Pierre FerraguÊ
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