reports
- Bruno Cavalier
- Nicolas David
ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 29/09/2023
Nous pensons que Whitbread cumule le meilleur de deux mondes : une résilience face aux caprices du cycle et une histoire de croissance portée par des leviers précieux (notamment des opportunités en matière de développement, du M&A et des probables retours de cash supplémentaires). Nous relevons nos estimations (BPA 2023/2025e +23%), notre OC (4 350p vs 3 500p) et notre opinion à Surperformance. - ...
AC ACCOR SA
SOP SOPRA STERIA GROUP SA
MC LVMH MOET HENNESSY LOUIS VUITTON SE
ATO ATOS SE
CBK COMMERZBANK AG
INF INFOTEL SA
ASY ASSYSTEM SA
SX CS GROUP SA
SQI SQLI SA
SWP SWORD GROUP SE
ATE ALTEN SA
VNA VONOVIA SE
CAP CAPGEMINI SE
VRNL VERNEUIL PARTICIPATIONS
ORDI ORDINA N.V.
CTAC CTAC N.V.
TIETO TIETOEVRY OYJ
COK CANCOM SE
BC8 BECHTLE AG
CFR COMPAGNIE FINANCIERE RICHEMONT SA
IDR INDRA SISTEMAS S.A. CLASS A
ECONT ECONOCOM GROUP SE CLASS D
REY REPLY S.P.A.
VOD VODAFONE GROUP PLC
WAVE WAVESTONE SA
KBX KNORR-BREMSE AG
FQT FREQUENTIS AG WIENER
NA9 NAGARRO
UMG UNIVERSAL MUSIC GROUP NV
OVH OVH GROUPE
GSK GSK PLC
IOS IONOS GROUP SE
- Nicolas David
ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 09/29/2023
We think that Whitbread combines the best of both worlds, resilience against the vagaries of the cycle and a growth story buoyed by valuable levers (namely opportunities in terms of development, M&A and probable additional cash returns). We have raised our estimates (EPS 2023/2025e +23%) and our target price (4,350p vs 3,500p) and have upgraded our recommendation to Outperform. - ...
AC ACCOR SA
SOP SOPRA STERIA GROUP SA
MC LVMH MOET HENNESSY LOUIS VUITTON SE
ATO ATOS SE
CBK COMMERZBANK AG
INF INFOTEL SA
ASY ASSYSTEM SA
SX CS GROUP SA
SQI SQLI SA
SWP SWORD GROUP SE
ATE ALTEN SA
VNA VONOVIA SE
CAP CAPGEMINI SE
VRNL VERNEUIL PARTICIPATIONS
ORDI ORDINA N.V.
CTAC CTAC N.V.
TIETO TIETOEVRY OYJ
COK CANCOM SE
BC8 BECHTLE AG
CFR COMPAGNIE FINANCIERE RICHEMONT SA
IDR INDRA SISTEMAS S.A. CLASS A
ECONT ECONOCOM GROUP SE CLASS D
REY REPLY S.P.A.
VOD VODAFONE GROUP PLC
WAVE WAVESTONE SA
KBX KNORR-BREMSE AG
FQT FREQUENTIS AG WIENER
NA9 NAGARRO
UMG UNIVERSAL MUSIC GROUP NV
OVH OVH GROUPE
GSK GSK PLC
IOS IONOS GROUP SE
- Jean Danjou
LVMH : Let’s not get too nervous
>Growth should slow in H2, unsurprisingly; the next step after is naturally becoming more uncertain - We do not think that the economic climate sharply deteriorated for the group in Q3 but, like the rest of the sector, it underwent a moderation in the pace of growth, notably in the soft luxury/hard luxury divisions, namely the Fashion & Leather goods and Watches & Jewelry divisions. We believe that North American demand is still down and that demand in Europe and J...
- Jean Danjou
LVMH : Ne nous fâchons pas
>La croissance devrait décélérer sur le S2, ce n’est pas une surprise ; la suite devient forcément plus incertaine - Nous ne pensons pas que la conjoncture se soit brutalement dégradée pour le groupe sur le T3 mais, comme le reste du secteur, il subit la modération des rythmes de croissance, notamment au niveau du pôle soft luxury – hard luxury, c’est-à-dire les divisions Mode et Maroquinerie et Montres et Joaillerie. Nous comprenons que la demande Nord-Américaine ...
- Bruno Cavalier
- Jean Danjou
VIE VEOLIA ENVIRONNEMENT SA
SGO COMPAGNIE DE SAINT-GOBAIN SA
MC LVMH MOET HENNESSY LOUIS VUITTON SE
UHR SWATCH GROUP LTD. BEARER
RMS HERMES INTERNATIONAL SCA
EL ESSILORLUXOTTICA SA
BRBY BURBERRY GROUP PLC
KER KERING SA
01913 PRADA S.P.A.
MONC MONCLER SPA
CFR COMPAGNIE FINANCIERE RICHEMONT SA
- Bruno Cavalier
- Jean Danjou
VIE VEOLIA ENVIRONNEMENT SA
SGO COMPAGNIE DE SAINT-GOBAIN SA
MC LVMH MOET HENNESSY LOUIS VUITTON SE
UHR SWATCH GROUP LTD. BEARER
RMS HERMES INTERNATIONAL SCA
EL ESSILORLUXOTTICA SA
BRBY BURBERRY GROUP PLC
KER KERING SA
01913 PRADA S.P.A.
MONC MONCLER SPA
CFR COMPAGNIE FINANCIERE RICHEMONT SA
- Jean Danjou
ODDO : Monday valuation & performance review – Luxury sector
>In a nutshell… - Changing of the guard. Reflecting a deteriorating outlook for the sector, we cut our TPs on luxury stocks by c. 7% on average last week and reshuffled our stock strategy. We believe names perceived as the most defensive as a result of a still impressive growth momentum reported over H1 could also face the impact of the overall deceleration going forward: as a result, we cut our relative rating on both Hermès and Moncler to Neutral from Outperform. LV...
- Jean Danjou
ODDO : Monday valuation & performance review – Luxury sector
>In a nutshell… - Changing of the guard. Reflecting a deteriorating outlook for the sector, we cut our TPs on luxury stocks by c. 7% on average last week and reshuffled our stock strategy. We believe names perceived as the most defensive as a result of a still impressive growth momentum reported over H1 could also face the impact of the overall deceleration going forward: as a result, we cut our relative rating on both Hermès and Moncler to Neutral from Outperform. LV...
- Michael B. Schäfer
ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 09/21/2023
Jeronimo Martins will hold a CMD in Colombia on 25-26 September where they will update their growth plans in the country and discuss their strategy. In the last decade c.€ 0.8bn have been invested in Ara but the stock price only reflects at present a small fraction. We think that the event could act as a catalyst for the stock which has recently underperformed its peers which grow less, deliver lower returns and are more leveraged. While it is too early to say whether Jeronimo has re...
- Bruno Cavalier
- Michael B. Schäfer
ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 21/09/2023
Jeronimo Martins will hold a CMD in Colombia on 25-26 September where they will update their growth plans in the country and discuss their strategy. In the last decade c.€ 0.8bn have been invested in Ara but the stock price only reflects at present a small fraction. We think that the event could act as a catalyst for the stock which has recently underperformed its peers which grow less, deliver lower returns and are more leveraged. While it is too early to say whether Jeronimo has re...
- Jean Danjou
ODDO : Le ralentissement est pour tout le monde, nous ajustons nos pré...
>Momentum en retournement, attentes T4 élevées, risque d’un 2024 vraiment difficile : une remontée des bêtas et un abaissement des OC est nécessaire - Le momentum sur les prévisions a clairement changé de sens ces dernières semaines dans le secteur du luxe avec le ralentissement avéré des demandes locales aux US et en Europe et une Chine continentale dont la reprise post COVID ne fonctionne que pour les clients les plus fortunés. Si notre prévision T3 d’un secteur à +...
- Jean Danjou
ODDO : No significant rebound in August Swiss watch exports, China con...
>August growth at +4.0% after -0.7% in July - Swiss watch exports gained +4.0% y-o-y after having declined -0.7% in July and having grown +11.8% over H1. This is definitely a modest performance confirming a marked slowdown. The luxury category (factory price > CHF 3000) outperformed somewhat even though it reflected a moderate level of growth at +5.1% after +2.2% in July and +12.8% for H1. As for the other segments, the entry segment (factory price < CHF 200...
- Jean Danjou
ODDO : No significant rebound in August Swiss watch exports, China con...
>August growth at +4.0% after -0.7% in July - Swiss watch exports gained +4.0% y-o-y after having declined -0.7% in July and having grown +11.8% over H1. This is definitely a modest performance confirming a marked slowdown. The luxury category (factory price > CHF 3000) outperformed somewhat even though it reflected a moderate level of growth at +5.1% after +2.2% in July and +12.8% for H1. As for the other segments, the entry segment (factory price < CHF 200...
- Ahmed Ben Salem
- Bruno Cavalier
UHR SWATCH GROUP LTD. BEARER
RMS HERMES INTERNATIONAL SCA
EL ESSILORLUXOTTICA SA
BRBY BURBERRY GROUP PLC
KER KERING SA
ENI ENI S.P.A.
01913 PRADA S.P.A.
MONC MONCLER SPA
CFR COMPAGNIE FINANCIERE RICHEMONT SA
RIO RIO TINTO PLC
EVD CTS EVENTIM AG & CO. KGAA
SHEL SHELL PLC
- Ahmed Ben Salem
- Bruno Cavalier
UHR SWATCH GROUP LTD. BEARER
RMS HERMES INTERNATIONAL SCA
EL ESSILORLUXOTTICA SA
BRBY BURBERRY GROUP PLC
KER KERING SA
ENI ENI S.P.A.
01913 PRADA S.P.A.
MONC MONCLER SPA
CFR COMPAGNIE FINANCIERE RICHEMONT SA
RIO RIO TINTO PLC
EVD CTS EVENTIM AG & CO. KGAA
SHEL SHELL PLC
- Jean Danjou
ODDO : Monday valuation & performance review – Luxury sector
>In a nutshell… - How big a risk premium is now embedded in the valuation of luxury stocks? The recent commentary on the sector confirms that expectations for a visible deceleration in growth are now widespread. The sector grew +16% cc in H1 while the average annual growth rate witnessed over 2019-2022 stood close to 13% (long term historical norm at +9%/+10% a year). A return to a more normative high single digit growth rate, be it over H2 2023 or later on over 2024 ...
- Loic Morvan
- Paul Rouviere
Luxury Goods: normalising demand to limit upside in H2
Where do we stand after H1?Since the start of the year, we have been positive on the European Luxury Goods sector on expectations that China's reopening would bolster Luxury Goods sales throughout 2023. Q2 sales grew 17% on average. As expected, Hermès (+27%), Moncler (+26%) and Tod's Group (+24%)
- Bruno Cavalier
- Charlotte Vaisse
ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 09/11/2023
At the 14th edition of our Corporate Conference, hosted jointly by ODDO BHF and Commerzbank, the presenting corporates were still focused on the macroeconomic slowdown in parts of the world and the related impact on their sectors. Regionally, the US remains resilient at good levels, while China and Europe are lagging behind. Energy-intensive sectors remain concerned about German energy cost levels. Destocking of high inventory levels is gradually fading as supply chains normalise. Hen...
1COV COVESTRO AG
AMS AMS AG
MT ARCELORMITTAL SA
MC LVMH MOET HENNESSY LOUIS VUITTON SE
UHR SWATCH GROUP LTD. BEARER
RMS HERMES INTERNATIONAL SCA
EL ESSILORLUXOTTICA SA
TEP TELEPERFORMANCE SE
BRBY BURBERRY GROUP PLC
KER KERING SA
ELG ELMOS SEMICONDUCTOR SE
TPE PVA TEPLA AG
01913 PRADA S.P.A.
SOI SOITEC SA
ASM ASM INTERNATIONAL N.V.
AIXA AIXTRON SE
PFV PFEIFFER VACUUM TECHNOLOGY AG
HM B H&M HENNES & MAURITZ AB CLASS B
ATS AT & S AUSTRIA TECHNOLOGIE & SYSTEMTECHNIK AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT
MONC MONCLER SPA
ITX INDUSTRIA DE DISENO TEXTIL S.A.
WAF SILTRONIC AG
MELE MELEXIS NV
SMHN SUESS MICROTEC AG
CFR COMPAGNIE FINANCIERE RICHEMONT SA
VACN VAT GROUP AG
XFAB X-FAB SILICON FOUNDRIES SE
ASML ASML HOLDING NV
STM STMICROELECTRONICS NV
BESI BE SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRIES N.V.
ALKAL KALRAY SA
JEN JENOPTIK AG
- Bruno Cavalier
- Charlotte Vaisse
ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 11/09/2023
At the 14th edition of our Corporate Conference, hosted jointly by ODDO BHF and Commerzbank, the presenting corporates were still focused on the macroeconomic slowdown in parts of the world and the related impact on their sectors. Regionally, the US remains resilient at good levels, while China and Europe are lagging behind. Energy-intensive sectors remain concerned about German energy cost levels. Destocking of high inventory levels is gradually fading as supply chains normalise. Hen...
1COV COVESTRO AG
AMS AMS AG
MT ARCELORMITTAL SA
MC LVMH MOET HENNESSY LOUIS VUITTON SE
UHR SWATCH GROUP LTD. BEARER
RMS HERMES INTERNATIONAL SCA
EL ESSILORLUXOTTICA SA
TEP TELEPERFORMANCE SE
BRBY BURBERRY GROUP PLC
KER KERING SA
ELG ELMOS SEMICONDUCTOR SE
TPE PVA TEPLA AG
01913 PRADA S.P.A.
SOI SOITEC SA
ASM ASM INTERNATIONAL N.V.
AIXA AIXTRON SE
PFV PFEIFFER VACUUM TECHNOLOGY AG
HM B H&M HENNES & MAURITZ AB CLASS B
ATS AT & S AUSTRIA TECHNOLOGIE & SYSTEMTECHNIK AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT
MONC MONCLER SPA
ITX INDUSTRIA DE DISENO TEXTIL S.A.
WAF SILTRONIC AG
MELE MELEXIS NV
SMHN SUESS MICROTEC AG
CFR COMPAGNIE FINANCIERE RICHEMONT SA
VACN VAT GROUP AG
XFAB X-FAB SILICON FOUNDRIES SE
ASML ASML HOLDING NV
STM STMICROELECTRONICS NV
BESI BE SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRIES N.V.
ALKAL KALRAY SA
JEN JENOPTIK AG
- Jean Danjou
ODDO : Monday valuation & performance review – Luxury sector
>In a nutshell… - We have come a long way down now, time to relax a bit? With September shaping up as a second month of correction for luxury stocks, the sector YTD outperformance has nearly evaporated with a progression for the year now around +10%. On current 2023 forecasts, the sector is trading at a c.10% discount vs pre-Covid on current prices, the discount exceeds 15% on 2024 forecasts. This implicit rise in the risk premium assigned to luxury seems to capture w...
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Report is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.