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Dan Salmon ... (+2)
  • Dan Salmon
  • Emily Stykes

Match Group (MTCH, Buy, $55 target) Investor Day date could be next st...

This morning MTCH announced the addition of two new Board members after a “constructive engagement with Elliott Investment Management.” Among other things, the company also confirmed it will host an investor day at a date still to be determined.

Dan Salmon ... (+2)
  • Dan Salmon
  • Emily Stykes

Match Group (MTCH, Buy, TP: $55) 4Q23 Model Update: $55 target unchang...

No change to our $55 target owing to slightly lower estimates offset by a lower 10-year rate in our DCF valuation.

Dan Salmon ... (+2)
  • Dan Salmon
  • Emily Stykes

Match Group (MTCH, Buy, TP: $55) Quick Thoughts Following the Call

What's New: In this note we touch on: 1. Tinder refresh data points 2. $20M annualized benefit from AAPL changes 3. Elliott engagement confirmed 4. Hinge seasonality is a sign of scale 5. $20-$30M investment in AI, but no revenue in guidance

Dan Salmon
  • Dan Salmon

Match Group (MTCH, Buy, TP: $55) Quick Thoughts Following the Call

In this note we touch on: 1. Tinder refresh data points 2. $20M annualized benefit from AAPL changes 3. Elliott engagement confirmed 4. Hinge seasonality is a sign of scale 5. $20-$30M investment in AI, but no revenue in guidance

Dan Salmon ... (+2)
  • Dan Salmon
  • Emily Stykes

Match Group (MTCH, Buy, TP: $55) Initial Thoughts Ahead of Tomorrow's ...

What's New: In this brief note we touch on: 1. Tinder payers still expected to grow beginning 3Q24 2. Material change in M&A tone: the Elliott impact? 3. New $1B share buyback authorization 4. Strong growth continues at Hinge, MG Asia bouncing back 5. Elevated marketing spending 6. How will AI features be monetized?

Dan Salmon ... (+2)
  • Dan Salmon
  • Emily Stykes

Match Group (MTCH, Buy, TP: $55) Quick Thoughts Ahead of the Print

What's New: In this brief note we touch on the key controversies we expect to be in focus for tonight’s earnings release and tomorrow’s call at 8:30am ET: 1. Outlook for Tinder payers in 2H24 2. Update on Tinder a la carte product suite, pricing, and merchandising 3. Tinder management succession 4. Hinge growth outlook 5. Outlook for in-app payments post AAPL changes 6. Marketing expense and margins 7. AI product roadmap 8. Management engagement with Elliott

Blair Levin ... (+3)
  • Blair Levin
  • Dan Salmon
  • Matt Perault

Internet Policy: Previewing State Tech Policy in 2024 (META, GOOG, AMZ...

State legislative sessions are kicking off this month, and states play the lead role in enacting new laws to govern the tech sector.

Dan Salmon
  • Dan Salmon

Top Controversies for U.S. Internet in 2024

In this report, we review our Top Picks going into 2024, and more importantly, dig into the the most important controversies we expect investors to be focused on this year.

Dan Salmon ... (+2)
  • Dan Salmon
  • Emily Stykes

Holiday Weekend Quick Takes & Week Ahead: AMZN Black Friday expectatio...

We look ahead at key events, and share our views on: 1. Black Friday and holiday weekend expectations for AMZN 2. MTCH’s Tinder begins app refresh. 3. SNAP’s new Americas Head does the rounds of digital ad trade publications. 4. New Creator tools and Achievements on META’s Instagram 5. YouTube updates AI policies 6. GOOGL’s DeepMind Launches GraphCast for weather.

Dan Salmon ... (+2)
  • Dan Salmon
  • Emily Stykes

Match Group (Buy, TP to $55 from $59) 3Q23 Model Update

Our target price declines to $55 from $59 due to lower estimates and a higher 10-year rate in our DCF.

Dan Salmon ... (+2)
  • Dan Salmon
  • Emily Stykes

MTCH: Quick Thoughts Following the Call

What’s New: In this brief note we touch on: 1. Tinder's recovery, the role of a la carte, and advertising 2. The GOOGL "value exchange:" a win for Google Cloud vs AWS 3. AI roadmap for 2024: new customer for Vertex AI? 4. Commentary on capital allocation

Dan Salmon
  • Dan Salmon

Match Group (Buy, TP: $59) Initial thoughts ahead of tomorrow's call

What’s New: In this brief note we touch on: 1. Business Visibility and Capital Allocation 2. Tinder Monetization Efforts 3. The Google Settlement and the Outlook for IAP 4. Hinge, MG Asia, and Archer 5. Adjusted Operating Income Margins

Dan Salmon
  • Dan Salmon

Match Group (Buy, TP: $59) Quick thoughts ahead of the print

In this brief note we review the most important metrics for MTCH, investor sentiment and top questions (including about this week’s report of X/Twitter pursuing online dating), potential catalysts, and what to listen to for on the call tomorrow at 8:30AM ET.

Dan Salmon ... (+2)
  • Dan Salmon
  • Emily Stykes

The Weekend Wrap: Chrome tests new IP address protections, META’s Inst...

What’s New: In our latest edition, we share our views on : 1. GOOGL’s Chrome begins testing new IP address protections 2. META expands Instagram’s Reminder Ads 3. MTCH’s Tinder adds match-making feature 4. YELP makes several AI upgrades 5. TikTok Testing 15 Minute Videos

Dan Salmon
  • Dan Salmon

AI Speaker Series Recap: Sifting through the noise - AI unlocks for Ad...

Last week, we hosted the fourth edition of our AI Speaker series and discussed AI-powered ad-buying and content creation tools, generative AI consumer use cases, the cost outlook and role of cloud services providers, and barriers to entry in generative AI.

Dan Salmon
  • Dan Salmon

The Regulatory Outlook for Online Dating, including MTCH, BMBL and GRN...

Yesterday, we spoke with Hannah Shimko, CEO of the Online Dating Association about the current regulatory outlook facing the sector. Topics included the Digital Markets Act (DMA) and Digital Services Act (DSA), the future of In-App Payment (IAP) fees and Click-to-Cancel provisions, artificial intelligence (AI) and trust & safety issues facing the Online Dating sector.

Dan Salmon
  • Dan Salmon

2Q23 Online Dating Recap: All We Need is Just a Little Patience

In our expanded quarterly recap, we review the latest download and daily active user trends to date in 3Q, followed by key metric reviews and forecasts for all major apps and companies. We've added more data on international companies, market share for both payers and revenue, and a new section reviewing adjusted EBITDA trends. We have also made slight adjustments to our industry model.

Match Group Inc: 1 director

A director at Match Group Inc sold 8,735 shares at 45.822USD and the significance rating of the trade was 66/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly ...

Dan Salmon
  • Dan Salmon

Some Thoughts on Recent Headlines

In our latest edition, we share our views on: 1. The latest on GOOGL and MTCH’s in-app payment litigation 2. AWS CEO goes in depth on cloud and AI 3. AMZN cutting in-house brands 4. SNAP under review in the U.K. for underage users 5. NFLX game controller app on AAPL’s App Store 6. TikTok announces a new logistics offering in the U.K.

Dan Salmon
  • Dan Salmon

Quick Online Dating and MTCH Read Throughs from the BMBL 2Q23 Call

BMBL reported tonight and we offer some quick thoughts on: 1) their new pricing strategy for Gen Z and high intent daters, and its implications for the industry; 2) the latest on AI and gen AI features and how they compare to MTCH

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