Tariffs – How would a recession affect our coverage?

The tariffs announced by the Trump administration in the last two weeks have resulted in major swings in the stock market and broader concerns regarding the global economy. We developed a framework to understand the situation and interpret its daily evolution last week and follow up today with an initial perspective on potential macro implications.

Tariffs: Smartphones, PC, semicap equipment, and others excluded - Our...

As a follow-up to the baseline thesis we published on Friday about U.S. tariffs, we provide below our assessment of latest developments announced on Friday.

Getting over Tariffs – Step back. Rethink. Move on.

Swings observed in the last 10 days has been second to none. The Great Financial Crisis and Covid didn’t get us in a worst spot. Make no mistake: The markets are panicking today even more than when the world came to a COVID standstill, with the individual contributors to the vast majority of the world’s GDP locked down. How reasonable is that? Very little, in our view. The polarization of the political landscape has created a global brain freeze. Few analyses calmly assess the U.S. administrati...

ARC-AGI-2: Pushing the measure of intelligence beyond test-time comput...

The ARC team has announced ARC-AGI-2 and published initial benchmarking results, after ARC-AGI-1 got saturated by o3. The race to AGI is reset. Fascinating. ​​​​​For what all investors need to understand about the most important benchmark of the industry, summarized on a single slide, see the attached article.

The Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible 4Q24

We publish today our comprehensive quarterly bible: 240 pages of detailed analyses on what happened in the last 3 months, and how we interpret it, in light of our current convictions. The first section acts as a PM summary, outlining our key findings, and latest thoughts on the semi cycle, in 6 slides.

Bible 4Q24: Enterprise IT – continued recovery in Legacy, stabilizatio...

Today, we are publishing the Enterprise IT section of our 26th Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible. The Tech Bible is a must-read for any tech investor, as it summarizes the quarterly earnings reports from the over 140 companies we track, providing an update on our key perspectives and convictions. Legacy IT spending recovery continued, with major players again reporting double-digit order growth across core legacy portfolios. Al server demand remained strong, although some revenue recognition ...

Bible 4Q24 – Hyperscale & Cloud: material capex revisions, now consist...

Today, we are publishing the Hyperscale & Cloud section of our 26th Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible. The Tech Bible is a must-read for any tech investor, as it summarizes the quarterly earnings reports from the over 140 companies we track, providing an update on our key perspectives and convictions. Hyperscale revenues grew 11% YoY, with cloud services stabilizing in the mid-20%, driven by strong demand for both traditional & AI infrastructure. Capex grew 73% YoY and 25% QoQ, 11% above con...

Cisco Systems Inc: 2 directors

Two Directors at Cisco Systems Inc sold 20,781 shares at between 64.366USD and 64.522USD. The significance rating of the trade was 69/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over th...

Moody's Ratings assigns A1 ratings to Cisco's new senior unsecured not...

Moody's Ratings (Moody's) assigned A1 ratings to Cisco Systems, Inc.'s (Cisco) proposed senior unsecured notes. All other ratings including the A1 long-term rating, Prime-1 (P-1) short-term rating, and stable outlook remain unchanged. The proposed notes will be used to repay a portion of Cisco's $11...

Auto cycle & onsemi, Mobileye & Lyft, Semicap weak, and More: Our Week...

As always, during earnings season, we wrap-up what happened in the previous week. For our main takes summarized on a single slide, and a few words on each of the 16 names we followed last week, follow the link below.

Cisco 2FQ25: Recovery playing out. What’s next? Buy, $75 TP

Cisco reported 2FQ25 (4Q24) yesterday. Please click the link below for our take on the print.

Cisco Systems, Inc. - October 2024 (LTM): Peer Snapshot

Compares key performance metrics against industry peers.

Moody's Ratings announces completion of a periodic review of ratings o...

Moody's Ratings (Moody's) has completed a periodic review of the ratings of Cisco Systems, Inc. and other ratings that are associated with this issuer. The review was conducted through a rating committee held on 12 December 2024 in which we reassessed the appropriateness of the ratings in the conte...

The Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible 3Q24

We publish today our comprehensive Quarterly Bible: 238 pages of detailed analyses on what happened in the last 3 months, and how we interpret it, in light of our current convictions. The first section acts as a PM summary, outlining our key findings, and latest thoughts on the semi cycle, in 6 slides.

Bible 3Q24: Telecom Infrastructure - Timid recovery, positive margin t...

Bible 3Q24: Enterprise IT – Legacy recovery sustains; SaaS stabilizes;...

Today, we are publishing the Enterprise IT section of our 25th Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible. The Tech Bible is a must-read for any tech investor, as it summarizes the quarterly earnings reports from the over 140 companies we track, providing an update on our key perspectives and convictions. In the coming weeks we will publish sections on Telecom Equipment, Industrials, Ride sharing & Delivery, and Foundry. Legacy IT further rebounded, with revenue growth accelerating and all major player...

China AI capex, Semicap in 2025, Auto & Smartphone cycles, and more. T...

As always, during earnings season, we wrap-up what happened in the previous week.