reports
- Mayar El Ashry
MNHD: 2Q23| Impressive Growth in Sales
Sales grow annually and sequentially * MNHD achieved 2Q23 sales of EGP3.5 billion, up 90.7% y/y and 95.5% q/q, bringing 1H23 sales to EGP5.3 billion, up 54.6% y/y, with Taj City constituting 63.9% of sales and Sarai constituting 36.0%. * Cash collections grew 33.7% y/y to EGP1.1 billion in 2Q23, bringing cash collections up 19.6% y/y to EGP2.0 billion in 1H23. * Sales cancellation rate reached 7.2% in 2Q23, compared to 22.4% in 2Q22 and 6.4% in 1Q23. * Construction and infrast...
- Mayar El Ashry
MNHD: 1Q23 | A Steady Start to the Year
SALES GROW Y/Y * MNHD achieved 1Q23 sales of EGP1.8 billion, up 12.8% y/y and down 51.5% q/q, with Taj City constituting 69.2% of sales and Sarai constituting 30.6%. Around 9.0% of 1Q23 sales constituted ready-to-move inventory sales, while off-plan sales generated the remaining 91.0%. * Cash collections grew 6.2% y/y to EGP888.1 million in 1Q23. * Delinquency rate reached 2.7% in 1Q23, compared to 4.7% in 1Q22 and 2.6% in 4Q22. * Sales cancellation rate reached 6.4% in 1Q23, ...
- Mayar El Ashry
MNHD: A Year of Impressive Growth
Strong operational and financial performance * MNHD achieved solid 4Q22 sales of EGP3.7 billion, up 325.1% y/y and 13.0% q/q, bringing FY22 sales to EGP11.2 billion, up 224.4% y/y, supported by project launches in Taj City and Sarai, with Taj City constituting 56.3% of sales and Sarai constituting 43.7%. Around 25.0% of FY22 sales constituted ready-to-move inventory sales, while off-plan sales generated the remaining 75.0%. * Net cash collections grew 42.0% y/y to EGP1.0 billion in 4Q22...
- Mayar El Ashry
MNHD: Management meeting key takeaways
DEMAND GOING STRONG * There is no concern for demand for real estate especially in light of current economic developments such as EGP depreciation, with buyers using real estate to preserve their wealth. YTD demand is looking better than the comparable period in 2022. * The concern is more to do with developers’ ability to absorb cost increases given that the off-plan sales model followed in the real estate sector locks in the sales price but faces the risk of later facing higher costs ...
- Mayar El Ashry
MNHD: 3Q22| Impressive Sales and Earnings
Solid sales performance continues * MNHD achieved stellar 3Q22 sales of EGP3.3 billion, up 445.9% y/y and 83.6% q/q, bringing 9M22 sales to EGP6.7 billion, up 218.4% y/y, supported by the launch of Elect in Taj City. Around 37.0% of 9M22 sales constituted ready-to-move inventory sales, while off-plan sales generated the remaining 63.0%. * Net cash collections grew 39.0% y/y to EGP989.6 million in 3Q22, bringing 9M22 net cash collections up 18.5% y/y to EGP2.6 billion. * Delinquency...
- Mayar El Ashry
MNHD: 2Q22 – Strong sales and solid deliveries
POSITIVE MOMENTUM CONTINUES * MNHD achieved strong 2Q22 sales of EGP1.8 billion, up 122.8% y/y and 14.0% q/q, bringing 1H22 sales to EGP3.3 billion, up 117.3% y/y, supported by the launch of Taj Ville in Taj City. Around 43.0% of 1H22 sales constituted ready-to-move inventory sales, while off-plan sales generated the remaining 57.0% of 1H22 sales. * Net cash collections grew 13.8% y/y to EGP797.7 million in 2Q22, bringing 1H22 net cash collections up 8.8% y/y to EGP1.6 billion. * ...
- Mayar El Ashry
MNHD: 1Q22 review – Revenues rise on higher sales and deliveries
1Q22 HIGHLIGHTS: * 1Q22 sales increased 110.6% y/y to EGP1.6 billion of which Sarai constituted 54.3% and Taj City constituted 45.7%. * Net cash collections grew 4.5% y/y to EGP836.3 million in 1Q22. * Cumulative delinquency rate reached 4.7% by the end of 1Q22, down from 8.9% at the end of 4Q21, reflecting MNHD’s efforts to rid its receivables portfolio of nonperforming contracts as indicated by the 49.1% cancellation rate in 1Q22, compared to 21.2% in 1Q21. MNHD expects its sales...
- Mayar El Ashry
MNHD: FY21 results pale in comparison to strong FY20
SALES DECLINE FROM STRONG FY20 LEVEL * FY21 sales declined 57.9% y/y to EGP3.0 billion due to FY20 sales having included EGP2.3 billion in land sales. FY21, by comparison, witnessed land sales of merely EGP108.0 million. Besides land sales, sales in Taj City decreased 12.4% y/y to EGP1.3 billion, and sales in SARAI decreased 52.3% y/y to EGP1.5 billion in FY21. * Revenue in 4Q21 declined 36.5% y/y to EGP847.4 million due to 4Q20 revenue having been supported by a land sale and despite 4...
- Mayar El Ashry
Madinet Nasr for Housing and Development: Management webinar key takea...
NEW MANAGEMENT IN PLACE * MNHD’s new management is currently formulating its new strategy. This new strategy includes the company’s expansion plans, but for FY22, the focus is on the land the company already has. * MNHD plans to slow down land sales to focus more on development given that dependence on land sales is not sustainable. * MNHD plans to focus on commercial operations such as leasing to generate recurring income. * MNHD is focusing on healthy management of cash flow...
- Mayar Elashry
Egypt Real Estate 2022: Macro supportive, but operational challenges a...
REAL ESTATE TO CONTINUE TO BE VIEWED AS A STORE OF VALUE We believe real estate will continue to be viewed as a store of value, especially in light of expected higher inflation in 2022. In terms of interest rates, we continue to view the relationship between real estate and interest rates as one based on market sentiment, whereby expected higher interest rates in 2022 would be negative, and reiterate our view that, while certificates of deposit may present competition to real estate as an inv...
EMFD EMAAR MISR FOR DEVELOPMENT SAE
TMGH TALAAT MOUSTAFA GROUP HOLDING
HELI MISR EL GEDIDA HOUSING & DEVELOPMENT
ORHD ORASCOM DEVELOPMENT EGYPT SAE
OCDI SIX OF OCTOBER DEVELOPMENT & INVESTMENT
MNHD MEDINET NASR HOUSING & DEVELOPMENT CO.
PORT PORTO GROUP HOLDING SAE
PHDC PALM HILLS DEVELOPMENTS SAE
EGTS EGYPTIAN FOR TOURISM RESORTS
- Mayar Elashry
MNHD: Results continue to suffer in shadow of land-sale-backed 2020
SALES DECLINE FROM 9M20 LEVEL * Sales in 9M21 dropped 39.6% y/y to EGP2.7 billion from EGP4.5 billion in 9M20 that had been supported by the EGP1.1 billion land sale. Excluding the EGP1.1 billion land sale from 9M20 sales would still translate into a 19.2% y/y drop in 9M21 sales. * Revenue in 3Q21 was down 4.3% y/y to EGP428.4 million, due to a 16.5% y/y decline in unit deliveries, and down 7.2% q/q despite a 42.5% q/q rise in unit deliveries which implies a lower-value delivery mix q/q...
- Mayar Elashry
MNHD: Sales decline and deliveries rise
SALES DECLINE ON UNFAVORABLE BASE EFFECT * MNHD recorded 1H21 sales of EGP2.2 billion, down 43.0% y/y due to 1Q20 having included the EGP1.1 billion land sale. Excluding this land sale from 1H20 sales would yield 1H20 sales of EGP2.6 billion and would translate into an 18.2% y/y decrease in 1H21 sales. * The number of units delivered in 2Q21 more-than-doubled y/y to 153 units and resulted in the 15.5% y/y increase in revenue in 2Q21 to EGP461.5 million, down 6.4% q/q. * Gross profi...
- Mayar Elashry
MNHD: Sales expectedly decline compared to land-backed 1Q20
NUMBERS DOWN ON UNFAVORABLE BASE EFFECT * MNHD recorded 1Q21 sales of EGP1.5 billion, down 42.1% y/y. The decline in sales is the result of 1Q20 having included the EGP1.1 billion land sale. Excluding this land sale from 1Q20 sales would yield 1Q20 sales of EGP1.4 billion and would translate into a 5.7% y/y increase in 1Q21 sales. * The sales drop overshadowed the significant jump in unit deliveries and resulted in the 46.1% y/y drop in revenue in 1Q21 to EGP493.1 million, down 63.1% q/...
- Mayar Elashry
Egypt real estate: Misalignment between sales and stock price performa...
In our 12-page report, we discuss charts that show three components: * Daily stock price over the last five years (January 3, 2016, to March 17, 2021) * Full-year real estate sales over the last five years (FY16 to FY20) * Price-to-sales (P/S) The charts cover seven real estate companies: MNHD, TMGH, PHDC, EMFD, ORHD, OCDI, and HELI. The sales data is depicted by the yellow bars which are placed at the end of each year given that the sales data represents full-year sales....
- Mayar Elashry
MNHD: Land sales and unit deliveries boost FY20 numbers
REVENUE SUPPORTED BY SALES AND DELIVERIES * MNHD’s sales in FY20 grew 11.1% y/y to EGP7.0 billion, mainly supported by the EGP2.2 billion in land sales in Taj City. FY20 witnessed growth in volume sold, both in terms of units, up 19.0% y/y to 1,548 units, and in terms of BUA, up 21.7% y/y to 258k sqm. This growth in volume sold coupled with the 24.3% y/y decrease in unit sales value points to a decrease in selling prices in FY20, which reflects the price discounts offered by the company on c...
- Mayar Elashry
Madinet Nasr for Housing and Development: Management Webinar Key Takea...
SALES EXCEED TARGET * Positive sales momentum continued onto 4Q20, driving FY20 sales past MNHD’s EGP6.0 billion target. * The company is targeting 10.0%-15.0% growth in sales in FY21, driven more by volume than by prices. * The company expects selling prices to grow by 5.0% in FY21, but expects greater growth in volume sold. * In contrast to the lengthened installment schedules that were offered as promotion by other real estate developers in FY20, MNHD offered a price discou...
- Mayar Elashry
MNHD: Quarterly Sales Down, Earnings Up
Sales decline annually and sequentially * MNHD’s sales in 3Q20 reached EGP758.0 million, down 54.8% y/y and 39.0% q/q, bringing 9M20 sales to EGP4.5 billion, up 21.3% y/y, supported by the company’s strong 1Q20 that had been boosted by the EGP1.1 billion land plot sale. * Revenue in 3Q20 increased 27.8% y/y and 12.1% q/q to EGP447.5 million as a result of an increase in unit deliveries. * Gross profit in 3Q20 reached EGP318.6 million, up 53.6% y/y and 34.3% q/q, spelling out a heal...
- Omar El Menawy
- Sara Boutros
Egypt real estate | 2020 off year for developers amid COVID-19 outbrea...
Real estate sector fares better than previously indicated signs. Stocks across the board were impacted by COVID-19, especially in the real estate sector (-25% y-t-d vs. -20% for the EGX). The impact on the ground, however, has not been as negative as early signs indicated. Stronger-than-expected 1H20 performance and improved access to financing (300bps cut), along with earlier-than-expected removal of state banks’ 15% CDs (maturing Mar-21, potential flows into RE sector) are all pillars for the ...
- Mayar Elashry
MNHD: Sales up annually, earnings pressured; maintain Overweight
Sales rise annually and decline sequentially * MNHD’s sales in 2Q20 reached EGP1.2 billion, up 22.8% y/y and down 50.9% q/q. The annual increase in sales is attributed to sales in the SARAI project. * Even though a rise in sales leads, in some cases, to higher revenue since around 30.0% of MNHD’s sales value is recognized as revenue in the same period, 2Q20 revenue declined 12.1% y/y to EGP399.4 million, pointing to fewer delivered units in 2Q20. * Gross profit in 2Q20 followed su...
- Mayar Elashry
Egypt Real Estate: Valuation update – a tough year
WE EXPECT SALES TO DECLINE 60-70% Y/Y IN FY20 Given the current Covid-19 situation, we expect real estate sales to decline 60-70% y/y in FY20. Current circumstances have prompted consumers to go into ‘wait and see’ mode, culminating in sales numbers taking a plunge. Indeed, 1Q20 numbers already portray this to be the case, casting company FY20 targets into far-fetched territory. We revisited our FY20 sales forecasts, which had already been at a significant discount to company targets, to rev...
EMFD EMAAR MISR FOR DEVELOPMENT SAE
TMGH TALAAT MOUSTAFA GROUP HOLDING
HELI MISR EL GEDIDA HOUSING & DEVELOPMENT
ORHD ORASCOM DEVELOPMENT EGYPT SAE
OCDI SIX OF OCTOBER DEVELOPMENT & INVESTMENT
MNHD MEDINET NASR HOUSING & DEVELOPMENT CO.
PORT PORTO GROUP HOLDING SAE
PHDC PALM HILLS DEVELOPMENTS SAE
EGTS EGYPTIAN FOR TOURISM RESORTS
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