reports
- Vikash Harlalka
- Jonathan Chaplin
Conflicting expectations in mobile and broadband
In our Broadband Trends report published this week, we show that bottom-up forecasts are well below our top-down forecast. The disconnect is all in Cable, and mostly in Comcast. We don’t have enough conviction in our top-down forecast to make a call on Comcast, particularly ahead of 1Q25 results where management has provided very clear context on trends, but we suspect results for the year won’t be as bad as feared. By contrast in our Wireless Trends report last week, we showed that our forecas...
- Jonathan Chaplin
- Jonathan Chaplin
Further thoughts on tariff impacts on Fiber and Cable
We published our quick take on tariff impacts on Mobile and Broadband stocks last week. We haven’t learned much over the last week that would change our initial take for Wireless, or for Broadband revenues and costs. We hosted a lunch with Shentel yesterday that provided some new insights on the impact to fiber capex, with implications for Cable.
- Jonathan Chaplin
- Jonathan Chaplin
4Q24 Broadband Trends: Our broadband forecast
In this report we highlight a disconnect between our top-down forecast and our and “Consensus” bottom-up forecast for broadband subscribers. Either market growth is much worse than it appeared at the end of 2024, or Cable adds will be better than expected. We also update our top-down forecast and reprise our work on competitive positioning of the operators based on relative cNPS scores.
- Jonathan Chaplin
CHTR Quick Hit: 1Q25 Buybacks At $0.8BN; Lowering Buyback Estimate Sli...
Advance / Newhouse filed their latest Charter ownership disclosure late last week. The buyback amount for the quarter was slightly below our prior estimate. As such, we are lowering our share repurchase estimate for 1Q25 to $820MM.
- Jonathan Chaplin
- Jonathan Chaplin
Charter Pre-1Q25 Model Update
This report covers changes to our model to incorporate recent management commentary at investor conferences. Our broadband losses for 1Q25 remain unchanged but we lowered wireless net adds for the year. Changes to financial estimates are minor. No change to thesis. We believe repurchases resumed post Liberty Broadband vote with $4BN of repurchases this year. Our near-term price target is $426 (+15%). With broadband revaluation and M&A, stock could get to $740 (+100%).
- Jonathan Chaplin
4Q24 Wireless Trends: Expectations for net adds are too high
This report focuses on drivers of subscriber growth in 2025. Expectations for net adds are too high, though expectations for service revenue and EBTDA look fine. We also reprised our work on comparative NPS, provide a comprehensive review of 4Q24 trends, and update our long-term forecast
- Jonathan Chaplin
Comcast Pre-1Q25 Model Update
We aren’t bringing any fresh insights with this update; its overdue; we are just aligning our model with recent management commentary at investor conferences. Our broadband losses for 1Q25 remain unchanged and we don’t expect Consensus to change materially. Changes to financial estimates are minor. No change to thesis. Price target is $44 (+21%).
- Jonathan Chaplin
- Philip Burnett
A Signal for 1Q25 in AT&T FirstNet Connections?
FirstNet announced this morning that it has over 7MM FirstNet Connections as of 1Q25. That is up from 6.7MM connections at the end of 2024. Because of rounding, FirstNet net adds could be 275k-325k in 1Q25; this is generally in line with quarterly FirstNet adds over the past four years. While AT&T doesn't regularly disclose the split, at 2Q23 earnings they said that just over a third of FirstNet net adds were postpaid phones (the rest are non-phone devices). We would assume that there were 90k-1...
- Blair Levin
NSR Policy: Wireless Update: Kennedy Cancer Concerns
Plus, a Round One Win for T on 4.9 GHz, TMUS modifies DEI initiative, Carr Signals Hope for Reallocating Military Spectrum as CTIA Presses on Its Spectrum Needs and Its New Leader (Pai) Signals Splits with Carr on Merger Review Approach While there have been major developments in the last week on the future of USF, BEAD, and merger reviews, there have been smaller, but still significant, developments related to the future of wireless services. In this update, we cover those developments. The on...
- Philip Burnett
- Jonathan Chaplin
Four killer insights from day one
We just wrapped up day one the Future-of-Connectivity conference that we host every year with BCG. We gleaned new insights into the risk of the broadband market getting more competitive, wireless market growth, what is driving the convergence imperative, and Lumen’s appetite for asset sales.
- Jonathan Chaplin
- Jonathan Chaplin
AT&T in talks to buy Lumen fiber assets
Bloomberg reports that AT&T is in exclusive discussions to buy the fiber business for “more than $5.5BN”. We are not at all surprised that the deal is happening or that AT&T is the buyer. We are surprised by the price – it looks too low. Our quick thoughts in this brief note.
Comcast Accelerates Virtualization and AI Technologies Throughout the ...
PHILADELPHIA & RA’ANANA, Israel--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- and today announced that Comcast will use DriveNets’ Network Cloud solution to expand the trial of Janus, its initiative to virtualize and embed AI innovation through the core of its network to maximize performance and continue delivering superior Internet connectivity. Comcast launched the first trial of Janus in Atlanta in September 2024, making it one of the first network operators in the world to virtualize and disaggregate the core of its transport network to further enhance the flexibility, reliability, and resiliency of its connectivi...
Charter and Comcast Launch Satellite Connectivity for Mobile Devices
STAMFORD, Conn. & PHILADELPHIA--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Charter Communications (NASDAQ: CHTR) and Comcast (NASDAQ: CMCSA) today announced that their respective mobile businesses, Spectrum Mobile and Xfinity Mobile, have launched satellite-based services through a collaboration with Skylo, a non-terrestrial network (NTN) service provider. The feature is now available on Samsung’s Galaxy S25 and Google Pixel 9 devices and will provide customers with access to emergency messaging services when their device is not connected to either a cellular or WiFi network. The ability to send and receive SMS text m...
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