reports
- Vikash Harlalka
CHTR: Buy It Now
We believe that positive EBITDA growth and strong FCF per share growth this year mean that Charter’s stock is due for a positive revaluation. In this note, we review changes to our estimates, and comparisons with guidance and consensus. We have also updated our target valuation for Charter. Our revised price target is $328 (+47% from the close). Please see separate notes reviewing results and thoughts following the earnings call. Our broadband subscriber and total EBITDA estimates remain nearly ...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vital Signs: Actionable charts
In this product we rank the most positive and negative domestic stocks, filter the symbols by market-cap and trading volume, and then divide the companies into sectors and groups. We then manually look through charts leadership/changes, bottoms-up/top-down ideas, short-term patterns that may have long-term significance, etc. We believe you will find this product valuable as significant price and relative moves begin in the daily charts.
PEP PEPSICO INC.
ATNI ATN INTERNATIONAL INC.
AMN AMN HEALTHCARE SERVICES INC.
VZ VERIZON COMMUNICATIONS INC.
TNET TRINET GROUP INC.
T AT&T INC.
SM SM ENERGY COMPANY
RHI ROBERT HALF INTERNATIONAL INC.
POST POST HOLDINGS INC.
NSP INSPERITY INC.
LAND GLADSTONE LAND CORP.
GIS GENERAL MILLS INC.
FLO FLOWERS FOODS INC.
EPC EDGEWELL PERSONAL CARE CO.
DECK DECKERS OUTDOOR CORPORATION
CVX CHEVRON CORPORATION
CPA COPA HOLDINGS S.A. CLASS A
COG CABOT OIL & GAS CORPORATION
CLX CLOROX COMPANY
CL COLGATE-PALMOLIVE COMPANY
CHTR CHARTER COMMUNICATIONS INC. CLASS A
CHD CHURCH & DWIGHT CO. INC.
CAG CONAGRA BRANDS INC.
BEN FRANKLIN RESOURCES INC.
ASC ARDMORE SHIPPING
TMP TELEMEDYCYNA POLSKA
ARC AUSTRALIAN RURAL CAPITAL
AAOI APPLIED OPTOELECTRONICS INC.
KELYA KELLY SERVICES INC. CLASS A
KFRC KFORCE INC.
LBRDA LIBERTY BROADBAND CORP. CLASS A
OPY OPPENHEIMER HOLDINGS INC. CLASS A
JBSS JOHN B. SANFILIPPO & SON INC.
CNX CNX RESOURCES CORPORATION
ASGN ASGN INC
AX AXOS FINANCIAL INC.
RRBI RED RIVER BANCSHARES
CARE CARTER BANKSHARES INC
GE GENERAL ELECTRIC CO.
AVBH AVIDBANK HLDGS INC
MPTI M TRON INDUSTRIES INC
PKST PEAKSTONE REALTY TRUST
TOYO TOYO CO LTD
AEBI AEBI SCHMIDT HOLDING AG
SNDK SANDISK CORP
PBCO PBCO FINANCIAL CORP COM
- Vikash Harlalka
CHTR: Not all doom & gloom after all
We shared our view of Charter’s results this morning. Subscriber and EBITDA results were better than expected. In this note following the earnings call and our follow-up conversations, we address the following key investor issues including 1) broadband subscriber trends; 2) price increases and broadband ARPU; 3) EBITDA growth; 4) amended MVNO agreement; and 5) Leverage.
- Vikash Harlalka
CHTR 4Q25 Quick Take: Lower broadband losses; EBITDA beat
Charter’s broadband losses were better than expected. Revenue missed but EBITDA beat estimates on lower costs. We expect the stock to trade up on these results, but where it winds up for the day will depend on commentary around 1Q subscriber trends and 2026 EBITDA guide. A reassurance that Charter will grow EBITDA in 2026 would be good for the stock.
- Blair Levin
Can CMCSA Buy CHTR After the Cox Deal is Done?
With the CHTR/Cox deal moving towards approval and CMCSA out of running for WBD, we are again getting questions as to whether CMCSA could buy the combined CHTR/Cox entity. Further, as our New Street colleagues discussed yesterday, there has been a divergence in the stock price performances of Comcast and Charter driven by a potential ‘value unlock’ resulting from a potential split of Comcast cable from NBCU. It is beyond the scope of our expertise to analyze the financial details that could jus...
- David Barden
The future of US wireless, right now - Extrapolating 3Q25 wireless tre...
We are taking 3Q25 results and the most recent cNPS data and laying out our latest thinking and forecasts ahead of 4Q results. We expect 4Q results and attendant 2026 guidance to contain material information value for investors and we wanted to share our latest forecasts, data, and trends as a starting point as we navigate this impactful season.
- David Barden
- Vikash Harlalka
A deeper dive on 'terminal' broadband market share
We recently published our Future of Broadband report where we predicted Cable’s broadband market share will continue to fall for the foreseeable future. We got the question, 'what is cable market share looking like in the most mature fiber markets, is it asymptoting?'. The answer is no. In this report, we use data from our Opensignal partnership to show that Cable’s subscriber market share has continued to fall in markets where they compete against only one fiber provider over a multi-year perio...
- Blair Levin
Part Three of Year in Preview: Our Analysis about Policyband’s Predict...
This week we published three notes that preview what we think will be critical to investors in telecom/media/tech policy environment. In the first, we evaluated what questions do we not know the answer to today but will in a year that will have a material impact on stocks and depend in part on policy. In the second, we looked at the biggest policy related investment stories of 2025 and how the lingering elements of those stories will play out. In this third one we evaluate nine predictions mad...
- Blair Levin
Part Two of Year in Preview: What about SATS, BEAD, Spectrum, and Othe...
This week we are publishing three notes that analyze what we think will be critical to investors in telecom/media/tech policy environment in the year ahead. In the first one, published yesterday we evaluated questions that we do not know the answer to today--but will in a year--that will have a material impact on stocks and depend in part on policy. In this second one, we look at the biggest policy related investment stories of 2025 and how the lingering elements of those stories will play out i...
- Blair Levin
In Partial Win for Cable, Trump Memoranda Appears to Protect CBRS
Late Friday, President Trump released a new Presidential Memoranda on 6G and Spectrum. While what the Memoranda said is largely a restatement of what we have previously reported, we think the most important element for investors is what it didn’t say; specifically, that by omission it appears to protect the spectrum known as the Citizens Band Radio Services (CBRS) currently used by cable (and others) for wireless services. In this note we provide an analysis of the Memoranda.
- Vikash Harlalka
- Vikash Harlalka
The future of broadband - Optimum Fiber has higher cNPS than Optimum C...
Optimum’s cNPS for their fiber product is higher than their Cable product but the gap has decreased in recent months. Fiber cNPS has decreased and Cable cNPS has increased slightly. As the size of Optimum’s Fiber customer base increases, the overall cNPS should inch higher. More importantly, Fiber scores are higher than Cable in every category. The company has a lot of work to do to improve scores in price / value and customer support, both of which remain very low for both technologies
- David Barden
- Vikash Harlalka
The future of broadband 3Q25: Our updated broadband industry forecast ...
In this report, our latest broadband outlook tome, in addition to forecasting the future of broadband by technology for the next 5 years, we undertake a sensitivity analysis for Cable's end-state market share possibilities. We also refresh our work on the relative competitive positioning of carriers based on end-user cNPS scores via our Recon Analytics partnership.
- Vikash Harlalka
ATUS: Lowering subscriber estimates following 3Q results
We published a comprehensive note last week where we discussed whether Optimum can achieve their 2025 EBITDA guidance. We laid out all the revenue and cost items that can help Optimum achieve close to double digit EBITDA growth in 4Q. In this note, we cover changes to our estimates, and comparisons with guidance and consensus. We also look at Optimum’s relative valuation in comparison with peers, and what we believe is needed to justify Optimum’s current valuation.
- Jonathan Moreland
MNRO MONRO INC
LTC LTC PROPERTIES INC.
DIN DINE BRANDS GLOBAL INC.
CHTR CHARTER COMMUNICATIONS INC. CLASS A
URE UR-ENERGY
EXP EAGLE MATERIALS INC.
FMC FMC CORPORATION
WINA WINMARK CORP.
PMTS CPI CARD GROUP
RRBI RED RIVER BANCSHARES
INTA INTAPP INC
NCDL NUVEEN CHURCHILL DIRECT LENDING CORP
ASST ASSET ENTITIES INC.
- Vikash Harlalka
ATUS: Can Altice achieve their EBITDA guidance?
Heading into 3Q, we were worried that Altice might lower its full year EBITDA guidance. This didn’t happen. Management sounded confident that they would be able to meet their original guidance. Investors remain skeptical though as 4Q25 will be the first quarter since 3Q21 where Altice is trying to report positive EBITDA growth. Making things more challenging, 4Q implied growth is almost double digits. Our view is investor skepticism is well-founded.
- Vikash Harlalka
ATUS 3Q25 Quick Take: Subs and EBITDA miss; ’25 full year EBITDA guida...
Altice’s broadband losses were higher than expected. EBITDA also missed consensus estimates. Management has, however, reaffirmed their EBITDA guidance of $3.4BN for this year. We expect the stock to trade down on results, but, like CMCSA and CHTR last week, where it winds up for the day will depend on commentary around expected 4Q subscriber trends and management’s confidence around their EBITDA guidance.
- David Barden
Autumn for Broadband 3Q25 – FWA ascendant, Cable struggling
We share here, in our latest Autumn for Broadband report, a quick update on broadband industry trends based on reported company results so far. Industry net adds have improved substantially from a year ago but remain below last year’s when adjusted for ACP impact. Net adds for the quarter were higher than the pre-pandemic norm but trailing twelve-month net adds remain below pre-pandemic levels. We take a deep-dive into FWA’s continued strong momentum by carrier.
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