reports
- Jonathan Chaplin
Charter Pre-1Q25 Model Update
This report covers changes to our model to incorporate recent management commentary at investor conferences. Our broadband losses for 1Q25 remain unchanged but we lowered wireless net adds for the year. Changes to financial estimates are minor. No change to thesis. We believe repurchases resumed post Liberty Broadband vote with $4BN of repurchases this year. Our near-term price target is $426 (+15%). With broadband revaluation and M&A, stock could get to $740 (+100%).
- Jonathan Chaplin
4Q24 Wireless Trends: Expectations for net adds are too high
This report focuses on drivers of subscriber growth in 2025. Expectations for net adds are too high, though expectations for service revenue and EBTDA look fine. We also reprised our work on comparative NPS, provide a comprehensive review of 4Q24 trends, and update our long-term forecast
- Jonathan Chaplin
- Jonathan Chaplin
Four killer insights from day one
We just wrapped up day one the Future-of-Connectivity conference that we host every year with BCG. We gleaned new insights into the risk of the broadband market getting more competitive, wireless market growth, what is driving the convergence imperative, and Lumen’s appetite for asset sales.
- Blair Levin
NSR Policy: What Does BEAD State Bidding Tell Us?
Last week, we provided several notes analyzing how Congressional Republicans and the Administration, as well as others, were debating changes in the BEAD program. While that rhetoric pointed to significant changes ahead, the states have been proceeding under the existing rules set in the Biden Administration, making significant progress in ways generally not reflected in the DC discussions. In this note, we summarize the state activity and ISP bidding to date. We analyze what the state activi...
- Blair Levin
NSR Policy: BEAD Adjustments Certain but Details Still Cloudy
Yesterday, we published a note on whether T, VZ/FYBR and CHTR or Musk will come out on top with revisions to the BEAD program that Republicans are contemplating. As we noted, there are numerous changes we felt confident Republicans would do, such as removing a fiber preference, that will have no material impact on publicly traded companies. But there are several other changes that could, including whether the federal government will impose a high-cost threshold on states that will shift funds f...
- Blair Levin
Will T, VZ/FYBR and CHTR or Musk Come Out on Top with BEAD Revisions?
While the Trump Administration and Congressional Republicans have sent some signals about how they will revise the $42.5 Billion Biden Broadband Equity, Access and Deployment (BEAD) program, there has been no definitive word yet on key issues regarding those revisions. That may change today, when there is a congressional hearing on the program. In this note, we review the potential changes from the investor perspective, with a focus on the relative benefits to wireline broadband providers (par...
- Blair Levin
- Jonathan Chaplin
Carriers could spend $180BN on spectrum over the next four years
In this note we cover the potential timing of all the major spectrum auctions and transactions that could occur during the current administration, the amount of financial capacity the carriers have for purchasing this spectrum, and the intrinsic value of the spectrum. The analysis has important implications for EchoStar and for the three national carriers.
- Jonathan Chaplin
Autumn for Broadband 4Q24
In this installment of our Autumn for Broadband series, we provide a quick update on trends in the broadband market based on what we have seen from the companies that have reported so far. Adjusted for ACP, trends have improved again with net adds flat vs. last year. We expect organic net adds to recover next year due to lack of ACP headwind. Though the recovery could be impacted by immigration related headwinds.
- Jonathan Chaplin
- Jonathan Chaplin
Thoughts on Altafiber
Based on press reports from a couple of weeks ago, Altafiber has hired advisors for a strategic review. This may not be new; there were rumors that Altafiber was up for sale while the Frontier process was underway. This note explores the assets, the competitive dynamics in their markets, their end-state penetration, and their value. We are mostly using this as a vehicle to preview some of the new features that the Data Analytics team have built into Broadband Insights over the last three mont...
- Jonathan Chaplin
ATUS 4Q24 Quick Take: Subscribers fine; EBITDA weak
Subscriber trends were in-line; broadband ARPU was better-than-expected; EBITDA was much worse. The Company made up for weak EBITDA with lower-than-expected capex, so that FCF was ok. Finding the floor for EBITDA in light of higher-than-expected costs will be the focus on the call.
- Blair Levin
NSR Policy Spectrum Battles: A Field Guide
In 2025, the federal government will address multiple issues related to spectrum. While not all the issues will be resolved by the end of the year, the policy and political processes related to specific bands will provide greater clarity about the direction of policy, and the winners and losers, throughout the year.
- Jonathan Chaplin
- Jonathan Chaplin
Winter for Wireless
Four of the five carriers that have reported so far expect to increase or maintain net adds in 2025. The sell-side has taken them at their word; consensus expectations reflect a sharp increase in adds for the group in 2025. We think net adds will decline in 2025. Somebody will miss expectations, potentially by a lot. We walk through who is most at risk of missing on adds or EBITDA in this note.
- Jonathan Chaplin
Charter Post-4Q24 Model Update
This note focuses on model changes. Please see separate notes reviewing results and on thoughts following the earnings call. The major change was slightly lower broadband losses. We think consensus is in the right place on broadband losses for 2025. Our near-term price target is $386 (+12%). With broadband revaluation and M&A, stock could get to $740 (+115%).
- Jonathan Chaplin
- Jonathan Chaplin
CHTR 4Q24 Quick Take: Subscriber trends better than feared; financials...
After Comcast’s miss yesterday, investors have been braced for disappointing adds at Charter. The loss was better than we expected, though a touch worse than consensus (we suspect buy-side was braced for something closer to our estimate). EBITDA was right inline with our estimate, and ahead of consensus. The Company gave new Capex guidance, which will be a focus on the call. Charter has built up a nice reservoir for repurchases following the Liberty Broadband shareholder vote.
- Blair Levin
The CHTR/CMCSA/TMUS Dance: Comparing Government Approvals?
As the market perceives a larger window opening for M&A, there has been significant interest in the relative ease or difficulty of the antitrust/regulatory path for approval for two potential suitors for CHTR—CMCSA and TMUS. In this note we analyze both the traditional antitrust considerations (advantage CMCSA), the current political elements (advantage TMUS), how both can act in ways to mitigate the risks, events in the future that might change, and how the transaction may affect the ultimate ...
Charter Communications Inc: 1 director
A director at Charter Communications Inc sold 36,178 shares at 390.520USD and the significance rating of the trade was 67/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two y...
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Report is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.