reports
- Jonathan Chaplin
3Q24 Broadband Trends: FWA capacity limits; FWA demand limits
In this iteration of “Broadband Trends” we update our FWA capacity forecast. We also touch on early signs that demand for FWA may be limited, which could prevent mobile operators from reaching capacity limits (or force them to work harder to get there). This could have a big impact on the pace of Cable subscriber growth. Finally, we reprise our work on the competitive positioning of the various operators based on relative NPS scores.
Moody's Ratings assigns Ba1 credit ratings to Charter's new senior sec...
Moody's Ratings (Moody's) assigned a Ba1 credit rating to a new backed senior secured revolving credit facility and Term Loan A-7 both due 2030, and Term Loan B-5 due 2031, to be issued at Charter Communications, Inc.'s (Charter or the Company) wholly owned subsidiary Charter Communications Operatin...
- Jonathan Chaplin
Charter / Liberty Broadband: quick follow up on questions
We published a brief note on the transaction this morning. We have been asked four questions since then: 1) why didn’t Charter want GCI; 2) why the delayed close; 3) what does this mean for Charter’s share repurchases; 4) how much of a discount to NAV did Liberty Broadband accept? We cover all four in this brief follow-up.
- Jonathan Chaplin
CHTR Quick Hit: Charter Buying Liberty Broadband
This morning, Charter announced that they are buying Liberty Broadband (at last)! Charter is not acquiring GCI, making this a very straightforward transaction in which Charter is effectively repurchasing their own shares at a discount. Our quick thoughts in this very brief note.
- Jonathan Chaplin
Autumn for Broadband 3Q24
In this installment of our Autumn for Broadband series, we provide a quick update on trends in the broadband market based on what we have seen from the companies that have reported so far. Adjusted for ACP, trends have improved quite significantly. We continue to expect further recovery next year, once the ACP headwind has passed.
- Jonathan Chaplin
ATUS 3Q24 Results Review and Model Update
This note focuses on the review of results and estimate changes. We provided our comprehensive thoughts on the company in our thoughts following note. We lowered broadband losses and increased revenue and EBITDA for 4Q24. We also lowered capex and increased FCF.
- Jonathan Chaplin
ATUS: quick thoughts following the 3Q24 call
In this note we cover updated capex guidance for 2024 and 2025, FCF expectations for 2025, new targets that could pave the way to stability in 2026, an update on broadband market growth, an update on ACP, an update on progress on the turn-around, balance sheet and liability management, prospects for M&A, and our thoughts on the equity. We will follow up with a model update note in due course.
- Jonathan Chaplin
Charter Post-3Q24 Model Update
This note focuses on model changes. Please see separate notes reviewing results and on thoughts following the earnings call. We lowered broadband losses slightly. We also lowered capex and increased FCF estimate for the year. We expect consensus to increase their EBITDA and FCF estimate for the year. Price target is $488 (+33%).
- Jonathan Chaplin
CHTR: quick thoughts following the 3Q24 call
In this note we cover updated thought on ACP; updated thoughts on broadband market growth (it is improving!); broadband adds for 4Q24; EBITDA growth in 4Q24 and 2025; lowered BEAD expectations; lowered capex expectations; and comments management made on the competitiveness of HFC with fiber.
- Jonathan Chaplin
CHTR 3Q24 Quick Take: Broadband adds, EBITDA, and FCF beat
Charter reported a strong set of results, building on trends we saw from Comcast yesterday. Cable is clearly doing better competitively in a tough market. This may be partly driven by FWA starting to slow in the consumer market. In Charter’s case it is also likely driven by an important shift in strategy.
- Blair Levin
What if Elon Can Deliver a Gig? Where it Matters and Where it Doesn’t
As part of our election impact series, we recently published an analysis of how Elon Musk might influence telecommunications policy under a potential Trump Administration to benefit his Starlink service. While the note prompted significant feedback, nothing in the reaction causes us to reconsider what we wrote. Still, the reaction prompted us to do a second note laying out several paths a Trump Administration could take that would benefit Starlink related to the BEAD program and would work to d...
- Blair Levin
NSR Policy: Musk and BEAD: Further Thoughts
As part of our election impact series, we recently published an analysis of how Elon Musk might influence telecommunications policy under a potential Trump Administration to benefit his Starlink service. Few notes we have written have stirred the level of surprise and consideration that note produced. Nothing in the reaction causes us to reconsider what we wrote but we repeatedly heard one question that we believe deserves further elaboration. That question is how could Musk, at this late date, ...
- Jonathan Chaplin
US Broadband: Impact of Storms Helene and Milton
In this short note, we have tried to estimate the impact of “Helene” and “Milton” on the broadband subscribers for the major Cable companies and ILECs. The impacts from storms are one-time in nature and do not impact the long-term broadband thesis. Companies tend to disclose the impact, allowing investors to normalize results. Nevertheless, some of our clients have asked us to estimate the impact, so we did.
- Jonathan Chaplin
TMUS seems lukewarm on Cable acquisition
When asked about his interest in cable at the DT Capital Markets Day, Sievert seemed to suggest that Cable may face a “capital surprise”. This will no doubt dampen anticipation for a TMUS / CHTR deal. We are not so sure this is the right conclusion. Our quick thoughts in this brief note.
- Jonathan Chaplin
CHTR Quick Hit: Charter Buybacks Muted in October
We determined after last month’s filings that Charter was not repurchasing stock in the open market, suggesting they may be involved in a strategic process. As it turns out, they were in discussions to acquire Liberty Broadband (LBRD) with or without GCI (our note on the proposed transaction here). We lowered our expectations for buybacks following the announcement of the deal talks. Advance/Newhouse filed its latest Charter ownership disclosure last night. The buyback amount was almost negligib...
Charter Communications Inc: 1 director
Two Directors at Charter Communications Inc sold 5,686 shares at between 0.000USD and 356.640USD. The significance rating of the trade was 67/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors...
- Jonathan Chaplin
Charter Pre-3Q24 Model Update
This report covers changes to our model to incorporate recent management commentary at investor conferences. The most significant change was lower broadband losses due to lower ACP losses than previously expected. We now expect slightly lower losses than consensus in 3Q24. Price target is $473 (+44%).
- Jonathan Chaplin
2Q24 Broadband Trends: Are fiber builds accelerating?
In this iteration of “Broadband Trends” we explore whether fiber builds are accelerating and how it will impact Cable’s subscriber growth. We also reprise our work on the competitive positioning of the various operators based on relative NPS scores.
Moody's Ratings says Charter's credit ratings are unaffected by the pr...
Moody's Ratings (Moody's) says Charter Communications, Inc.'s (Charter or the company) Ba2 Corporate Family Rating (CFR), all other credit ratings and the negative outlook are unlikely to be affected by its proposed transaction with Liberty Broadband Corporation (parent of GCI, LLC (B1 Stable)). O...
- Jonathan Chaplin
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