reports
- Jonathan Chaplin
3Q24 Broadband Trends: FWA capacity limits; FWA demand limits
In this iteration of “Broadband Trends” we update our FWA capacity forecast. We also touch on early signs that demand for FWA may be limited, which could prevent mobile operators from reaching capacity limits (or force them to work harder to get there). This could have a big impact on the pace of Cable subscriber growth. Finally, we reprise our work on the competitive positioning of the various operators based on relative NPS scores.
Moody's Ratings assigns Ba1 credit ratings to Charter's new senior sec...
Moody's Ratings (Moody's) assigned a Ba1 credit rating to a new backed senior secured revolving credit facility and Term Loan A-7 both due 2030, and Term Loan B-5 due 2031, to be issued at Charter Communications, Inc.'s (Charter or the Company) wholly owned subsidiary Charter Communications Operatin...
Glinda and Elphaba Wicked Costumes on Display at the Comcast Technolog...
PHILADELPHIA--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- The signature costumes of Glinda and Elphaba, as worn by Ariana Grande and Cynthia Erivo in Universal Pictures' cinematic event Wicked, are on display in the Comcast Technology Center in Philadelphia. Universal Pictures’ Wicked arrives in theaters November 22, 2024. This press release features multimedia. View the full release here: The signature costumes of Glinda and Elphaba, as worn by Ariana Grande and Cynthia Erivo in Universal Pictures' cinematic event Wicked, on display in the Comcast Technology Center in Philadelphia. (Photo: Comcast)View source version...
- Blair Levin
Comcast Spins: Regulatory Implications
Comcast has announced it is spinning off its cable channels. As we wrote in a note when Comcast executives first publicly discussed this possibility, while the spin itself does not create any regulatory issues, the implications down the road were less clear, particularly if Trump was elected. Now that he has been, we provide some updated thoughts here.
- Jonathan Chaplin
CMCSA: cable networks spin announced – a fast-and-loose analysis
Comcast announced plans for the spin-off today. This was previewed at earnings, and anticipated in press reports last night. While the announcement was no surprise, it came sooner than we had hoped. We had been meaning to build a model for SpinCo in anticipation of the announcement but hadn’t gotten to it yet. We run some very fast-and-loose analysis in this note, compiled in just a few minutes this morning following the release. If other analysts have made a proper attempt to strip out Comcast’...
Comcast Announces Intention to Create Leading Independent Media Busine...
PHILADELPHIA--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Comcast Corporation (NASDAQ: CMCSA) today announced its intent to create a new publicly traded company comprised of a strong portfolio of NBCUniversal’s cable television networks, including USA Network, CNBC, MSNBC, Oxygen, E!, SYFY and Golf Channel along with complementary digital assets including Fandango and Rotten Tomatoes, GolfNow and Sports Engine, through a tax-free spin-off. The well-capitalized independent company (“SpinCo”) will have significant scale as a pure-play set of assets anchored by leading news, sports and entertainment content. SpinCo will...
Xfinity Launches Ultimate Viewing Destination for Universal Pictures’ ...
PHILADELPHIA--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- On November 22, Universal Pictures’ new cinematic event, Wicked, the untold story of the witches of Oz, soars in theaters across the country, bringing the magic of the generation-defining, blockbuster musical to the big screen and introducing global audiences to a spectacular new vision of the world of Oz. To get customers ready, Xfinity is going pink and green and launching the ultimate entertainment destination for Wicked fans. Available across its devices, including Xfinity X1, Xumo Stream Box and Xumo TV, the destination features an interactive timeline of O...
- Jonathan Chaplin
Charter / Liberty Broadband: quick follow up on questions
We published a brief note on the transaction this morning. We have been asked four questions since then: 1) why didn’t Charter want GCI; 2) why the delayed close; 3) what does this mean for Charter’s share repurchases; 4) how much of a discount to NAV did Liberty Broadband accept? We cover all four in this brief follow-up.
- Jonathan Chaplin
CHTR Quick Hit: Charter Buying Liberty Broadband
This morning, Charter announced that they are buying Liberty Broadband (at last)! Charter is not acquiring GCI, making this a very straightforward transaction in which Charter is effectively repurchasing their own shares at a discount. Our quick thoughts in this very brief note.
Comcast’s Xfinity Connects Wicked Stars Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grand...
PHILADELPHIA--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Today Comcast and Xfinity released the new short film, “Stay Connected to Your Dreams” to celebrate the November 22 release of Universal Pictures’ spectacular new cinematic event, Wicked. This press release features multimedia. View the full release here: To Celebrate the Theatrical Release of Universal Pictures “Wicked”, Comcast and Xfinity Premiere the New Short Film, “Stay Connected to Your Dreams” (Photo: Business Wire) Wicked, the untold story of the witches of Oz, based on the generation-defining blockbuster stage musical, stars Cynthia Erivo and Ariana G...
- Jonathan Chaplin
Autumn for Broadband 3Q24
In this installment of our Autumn for Broadband series, we provide a quick update on trends in the broadband market based on what we have seen from the companies that have reported so far. Adjusted for ACP, trends have improved quite significantly. We continue to expect further recovery next year, once the ACP headwind has passed.
- Jonathan Chaplin
ATUS 3Q24 Results Review and Model Update
This note focuses on the review of results and estimate changes. We provided our comprehensive thoughts on the company in our thoughts following note. We lowered broadband losses and increased revenue and EBITDA for 4Q24. We also lowered capex and increased FCF.
- Jonathan Chaplin
ATUS: quick thoughts following the 3Q24 call
In this note we cover updated capex guidance for 2024 and 2025, FCF expectations for 2025, new targets that could pave the way to stability in 2026, an update on broadband market growth, an update on ACP, an update on progress on the turn-around, balance sheet and liability management, prospects for M&A, and our thoughts on the equity. We will follow up with a model update note in due course.
Xumo Teams up With Target to Offer Hisense Xumo TVs
PHILADELPHIA--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Xumo, a streaming platform joint venture between Comcast and Charter, today announced it has teamed up with Target to offer Hisense Xumo TVs, a budget-friendly, content-forward 4K UHD smart TV. This press release features multimedia. View the full release here: Target Now Offering Hisense Xumo TVs (Photo: Business Wire) Hisense Xumo TVs will launch in stores nationwide and on Target.com starting next week. They will be available in 55” and 65” models and be priced at $249.99 and $359.99 respectively. “The growing fragmentation of content on streaming services c...
- Jonathan Chaplin
Charter Post-3Q24 Model Update
This note focuses on model changes. Please see separate notes reviewing results and on thoughts following the earnings call. We lowered broadband losses slightly. We also lowered capex and increased FCF estimate for the year. We expect consensus to increase their EBITDA and FCF estimate for the year. Price target is $488 (+33%).
- Jonathan Chaplin
CHTR: quick thoughts following the 3Q24 call
In this note we cover updated thought on ACP; updated thoughts on broadband market growth (it is improving!); broadband adds for 4Q24; EBITDA growth in 4Q24 and 2025; lowered BEAD expectations; lowered capex expectations; and comments management made on the competitiveness of HFC with fiber.
- Blair Levin
Potential Comcast Media Moves: Antitrust and Regulatory Prospects
In yesterday’s discussion of Comcast’s 3Q earnings, Comcast President Michael Cavanagh said that Comcast was studying two potential media moves: 1) a spin-off to shareholders of the cable networks (which would not include NBC or Peacock); and 2) a partnership for Peacock with other streamers, but not an acquisition. Our New Street colleagues offered their view on the financial ramifications in a note yesterday. Here, we offer our analysis of potential government reactions.
- Jonathan Chaplin
CHTR 3Q24 Quick Take: Broadband adds, EBITDA, and FCF beat
Charter reported a strong set of results, building on trends we saw from Comcast yesterday. Cable is clearly doing better competitively in a tough market. This may be partly driven by FWA starting to slow in the consumer market. In Charter’s case it is also likely driven by an important shift in strategy.
- Jonathan Chaplin
Comcast Post-3Q24 Model Update
In this note, we cover changes to our estimates, and comparisons with guidance and consensus. Please see separate notes reviewing results and thoughts following the earnings call. The most significant change was lower broadband losses in 4Q. We expect Consensus to lower broadband losses a touch also, but remain where they are on EBITDA. No change to thesis. Price target is $50 (+15%).
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