reports
- Vikash Harlalka
OPTU: Model update post 4Q results
Earlier today, we published our quick take on Optimum’s 4Q results and our thoughts following the call note. The big story from today’s results and call is that management hasn’t provided guidance for 2026 EBITDA. Our EBITDA estimate is relatively unchanged, but we expect consensus EBITDA estimate to head lower and land closer to our estimate. In this note, we cover changes to our estimates, and comparisons with guidance and consensus. We also look at Optimum’s relative valuation in comparison w...
- Vikash Harlalka
OPTU: Missed Opportunities
We were looking forward to Optimum management sharing healthy guidance for 2026 EBITDA on the call but were disappointed. A lack of guidance stokes investor uncertainty. We hope more color emerges on the next earnings call (it would be even better if Dennis provided guidance at our Conference on March 26th). Management has also been reluctant to reveal accounting and cash flow details around Lightpath AI hyperscaler contracts. We see this as a missed opportunity. In this note, we discuss broadba...
- Vikash Harlalka
OPTU 4Q25 Quick Take: Strong Financials
Optimum’s broadband losses were higher than stale consensus estimates. Management had said at an industry conference late last year that broadband losses will be elevated in 4Q and the losses came in slightly better than we expected. Revenue was quite strong, driven mainly by higher broadband and business services revenue. Broadband ARPU growth of 2.8% was much higher than expected. EBITDA was just above consensus estimates. We expect the stock to trade up on results, but where it winds up for t...
- Blair Levin
What Policies Matter to Telco’s Success: Supply Side or Demand Side? ...
T CEO John Stankey recently said that “I’ve never seen federal policy this supportive of market-based investment in advanced networks.” That statement raises multiple interesting investor related questions about what does, and does not, support investment in advanced networks, including the relative importance of those policies that drive supply and those that drive demand, and how government is treating advanced networks versus networks that have lower cost structures but also involve lower pe...
- Vikash Harlalka
CHTR: Buy It Now
We believe that positive EBITDA growth and strong FCF per share growth this year mean that Charter’s stock is due for a positive revaluation. In this note, we review changes to our estimates, and comparisons with guidance and consensus. We have also updated our target valuation for Charter. Our revised price target is $328 (+47% from the close). Please see separate notes reviewing results and thoughts following the earnings call. Our broadband subscriber and total EBITDA estimates remain nearly ...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vital Signs: Actionable charts
In this product we rank the most positive and negative domestic stocks, filter the symbols by market-cap and trading volume, and then divide the companies into sectors and groups. We then manually look through charts leadership/changes, bottoms-up/top-down ideas, short-term patterns that may have long-term significance, etc. We believe you will find this product valuable as significant price and relative moves begin in the daily charts.
PEP PEPSICO INC.
ATNI ATN INTERNATIONAL INC.
AMN AMN HEALTHCARE SERVICES INC.
VZ VERIZON COMMUNICATIONS INC.
TNET TRINET GROUP INC.
T AT&T INC.
SM SM ENERGY COMPANY
RHI ROBERT HALF INTERNATIONAL INC.
POST POST HOLDINGS INC.
NSP INSPERITY INC.
LAND GLADSTONE LAND CORP.
GIS GENERAL MILLS INC.
FLO FLOWERS FOODS INC.
EPC EDGEWELL PERSONAL CARE CO.
DECK DECKERS OUTDOOR CORPORATION
CVX CHEVRON CORPORATION
CPA COPA HOLDINGS S.A. CLASS A
COG CABOT OIL & GAS CORPORATION
CLX CLOROX COMPANY
CL COLGATE-PALMOLIVE COMPANY
CHTR CHARTER COMMUNICATIONS INC. CLASS A
CHD CHURCH & DWIGHT CO. INC.
CAG CONAGRA BRANDS INC.
BEN FRANKLIN RESOURCES INC.
ASC ARDMORE SHIPPING
TMP TELEMEDYCYNA POLSKA
ARC AUSTRALIAN RURAL CAPITAL
AAOI APPLIED OPTOELECTRONICS INC.
KELYA KELLY SERVICES INC. CLASS A
KFRC KFORCE INC.
LBRDA LIBERTY BROADBAND CORP. CLASS A
OPY OPPENHEIMER HOLDINGS INC. CLASS A
JBSS JOHN B. SANFILIPPO & SON INC.
CNX CNX RESOURCES CORPORATION
ASGN ASGN INC
AX AXOS FINANCIAL INC.
RRBI RED RIVER BANCSHARES
CARE CARTER BANKSHARES INC
GE GENERAL ELECTRIC CO.
AVBH AVIDBANK HLDGS INC
MPTI M TRON INDUSTRIES INC
PKST PEAKSTONE REALTY TRUST
TOYO TOYO CO LTD
AEBI AEBI SCHMIDT HOLDING AG
SNDK SANDISK CORP
PBCO PBCO FINANCIAL CORP COM
- Vikash Harlalka
CHTR: Not all doom & gloom after all
We shared our view of Charter’s results this morning. Subscriber and EBITDA results were better than expected. In this note following the earnings call and our follow-up conversations, we address the following key investor issues including 1) broadband subscriber trends; 2) price increases and broadband ARPU; 3) EBITDA growth; 4) amended MVNO agreement; and 5) Leverage.
- Vikash Harlalka
CHTR 4Q25 Quick Take: Lower broadband losses; EBITDA beat
Charter’s broadband losses were better than expected. Revenue missed but EBITDA beat estimates on lower costs. We expect the stock to trade up on these results, but where it winds up for the day will depend on commentary around 1Q subscriber trends and 2026 EBITDA guide. A reassurance that Charter will grow EBITDA in 2026 would be good for the stock.
- Vikash Harlalka
CMCSA: The value unlock trade? Nope. No major change in fundamentals
We shared our view of Comcast’s results this morning. Results were in line and commentary on the business fundamentals were mostly unchanged. In this note following the earnings call and our follow-up conversations, we address the following key investor issues including 1) the big picture value unlock theory; 2) the newly (apparently) amended VZ MVNO agreement; 3) broadband ARPU growth; 4) Connectivity EBITDA growth; 5) 2026 capital spend; 6) wireless net adds, and 7) 2026 FCF.
- Vikash Harlalka
CMCSA 4Q25 Quick Take: Results mostly in line; Waiting to hear what’s ...
Comcast’s results were mostly in line with estimates. Broadband losses and ARPU were in line. On the call, we would be keen to hear about subscriber trends in 1Q. We don’t expect any major changes to the stock price based on these results. What will drive the stock today is commentary on 1Q broadband trends and potential ‘value unlock’ from an NBCU spin.
- Blair Levin
Can CMCSA Buy CHTR After the Cox Deal is Done?
With the CHTR/Cox deal moving towards approval and CMCSA out of running for WBD, we are again getting questions as to whether CMCSA could buy the combined CHTR/Cox entity. Further, as our New Street colleagues discussed yesterday, there has been a divergence in the stock price performances of Comcast and Charter driven by a potential ‘value unlock’ resulting from a potential split of Comcast cable from NBCU. It is beyond the scope of our expertise to analyze the financial details that could jus...
- Vikash Harlalka
CMCSA: Potential Value Unlock?
Investors have been asking about the diverging stock price performance between Comcast and Charter. We believe the reason is an expanding conversation about the potential ‘value unlock’ that could emerge were Comcast to split its cable and NBCU businesses. In this note, we estimate what Comcast could be worth were this scenario to play out. To be clear, we are skeptical. Not that it shouldn’t happen, but rather the Roberts’ are too invested in their belief about the synergy between these entitie...
- David Barden
The future of US wireless, right now - Extrapolating 3Q25 wireless tre...
We are taking 3Q25 results and the most recent cNPS data and laying out our latest thinking and forecasts ahead of 4Q results. We expect 4Q results and attendant 2026 guidance to contain material information value for investors and we wanted to share our latest forecasts, data, and trends as a starting point as we navigate this impactful season.
- David Barden
- Vikash Harlalka
A deeper dive on 'terminal' broadband market share
We recently published our Future of Broadband report where we predicted Cable’s broadband market share will continue to fall for the foreseeable future. We got the question, 'what is cable market share looking like in the most mature fiber markets, is it asymptoting?'. The answer is no. In this report, we use data from our Opensignal partnership to show that Cable’s subscriber market share has continued to fall in markets where they compete against only one fiber provider over a multi-year perio...
- Blair Levin
Part Three of Year in Preview: Our Analysis about Policyband’s Predict...
This week we published three notes that preview what we think will be critical to investors in telecom/media/tech policy environment. In the first, we evaluated what questions do we not know the answer to today but will in a year that will have a material impact on stocks and depend in part on policy. In the second, we looked at the biggest policy related investment stories of 2025 and how the lingering elements of those stories will play out. In this third one we evaluate nine predictions mad...
- Blair Levin
Part Two of Year in Preview: What about SATS, BEAD, Spectrum, and Othe...
This week we are publishing three notes that analyze what we think will be critical to investors in telecom/media/tech policy environment in the year ahead. In the first one, published yesterday we evaluated questions that we do not know the answer to today--but will in a year--that will have a material impact on stocks and depend in part on policy. In this second one, we look at the biggest policy related investment stories of 2025 and how the lingering elements of those stories will play out i...
- Blair Levin
In Partial Win for Cable, Trump Memoranda Appears to Protect CBRS
Late Friday, President Trump released a new Presidential Memoranda on 6G and Spectrum. While what the Memoranda said is largely a restatement of what we have previously reported, we think the most important element for investors is what it didn’t say; specifically, that by omission it appears to protect the spectrum known as the Citizens Band Radio Services (CBRS) currently used by cable (and others) for wireless services. In this note we provide an analysis of the Memoranda.
- Vikash Harlalka
- Vikash Harlalka
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