reports
- Jonathan Chaplin
Winter for Wireless
Four of the five carriers that have reported so far expect to increase or maintain net adds in 2025. The sell-side has taken them at their word; consensus expectations reflect a sharp increase in adds for the group in 2025. We think net adds will decline in 2025. Somebody will miss expectations, potentially by a lot. We walk through who is most at risk of missing on adds or EBITDA in this note.
- Jonathan Chaplin
- Jonathan Chaplin
Charter Post-4Q24 Model Update
This note focuses on model changes. Please see separate notes reviewing results and on thoughts following the earnings call. The major change was slightly lower broadband losses. We think consensus is in the right place on broadband losses for 2025. Our near-term price target is $386 (+12%). With broadband revaluation and M&A, stock could get to $740 (+115%).
- Jonathan Chaplin
- Jonathan Chaplin
CHTR 4Q24 Quick Take: Subscriber trends better than feared; financials...
After Comcast’s miss yesterday, investors have been braced for disappointing adds at Charter. The loss was better than we expected, though a touch worse than consensus (we suspect buy-side was braced for something closer to our estimate). EBITDA was right inline with our estimate, and ahead of consensus. The Company gave new Capex guidance, which will be a focus on the call. Charter has built up a nice reservoir for repurchases following the Liberty Broadband shareholder vote.
- Jonathan Chaplin
Comcast Post-4Q24 Model Update
In this note, we cover changes to our estimates, and comparisons with guidance and consensus. Please see separate notes reviewing results and thoughts following the earnings call. The most significant change was higher broadband losses in 2025. We expect Consensus to increase broadband losses also. No change to thesis. Price target is $40 (+22%).
- Jonathan Chaplin
CMCSA: Quick thoughts following the call 4Q24
In this brief note we cover our thoughts on the stock reaction, what we learned about broadband market growth and Cable’s share, management’s refocusing on convergence revenue growth, our expectations for FCF and share repurchases, and the implications for the mobile market of Comcast pushing more aggressively into mobile.
- Jonathan Chaplin
CMCSA 4Q24 Quick Take: Strong consolidated results
Consolidated revenue, EBITDA, and FCF all beat estimates driven mostly by strength in Studios. Peacock results were also strong, and Parks were better-than-expected. Broadband results were a little disappointing, despite warnings towards the end of last year.
- Jonathan Chaplin
T-Mobile 4Q24 Model Update
We have updated the model following results. See slide 11 for a discussion of guidance in historical context. We increased 2025 phone net adds, EBITDA and FCF. Consensus is all but certain to follow. For quick thoughts following the call, click here. For a review of results, click here. Target price $276 (+19%).
- Jonathan Chaplin
TMUS: Quick thoughts following the 4Q24 call
In this note we focus on trade-offs the company is making between growth and margin, buybacks in 2025, cash available for M&A and what they may buy, FWA results, the outlook for mobile and broadband market growth, and the implications of the management change.
Comcast and Apple Unveil New Integrated Viewing Experience for MLS Sea...
PHILADELPHIA--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Comcast and Apple today announced plans to offer all Xfinity customers an integrated viewing experience for MLS Season Pass in time for the start of the 2025 season. Customers can sign up for MLS Season Pass directly through Xfinity and soon find every live match seamlessly incorporated throughout the X1 and Xfinity Stream app user interfaces, making it easy for them to watch alongside their other favorite live sports, without having to switch between apps. This press release features multimedia. View the full release here: Comcast and Apple plan to offer all X...
Comcast Introduces Nation’s First Ultra-Low Lag Xfinity Internet Exper...
PHILADELPHIA--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Comcast is introducing the first customers in the world to a pioneering new, ultra-low lag connectivity experience when they use interactive applications like gaming, videoconferencing, and virtual reality. With the launch, Xfinity Internet latency will be dramatically reduced to faster than the blink of an eye, currently when using FaceTime on iPhone, iPad, Mac, Apple TV, and Apple Vision Pro, apps on Meta’s mixed reality headsets that will support this technology, NVIDIA’s GeForce NOW, many games on Valve’s Steam games platform, and in the future on other appl...
- Jonathan Chaplin
- Blair Levin
The CHTR/CMCSA/TMUS Dance: Comparing Government Approvals?
As the market perceives a larger window opening for M&A, there has been significant interest in the relative ease or difficulty of the antitrust/regulatory path for approval for two potential suitors for CHTR—CMCSA and TMUS. In this note we analyze both the traditional antitrust considerations (advantage CMCSA), the current political elements (advantage TMUS), how both can act in ways to mitigate the risks, events in the future that might change, and how the transaction may affect the ultimate ...
Comcast’s Xfinity Launches $70 Sports and News Video Package
PHILADELPHIA--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Comcast today announced the launch of Sports & News TV, a new video package for Xfinity Internet customers that brings together live news, top sporting events from NFL, NBA, NHL, MLB and NCAA, hit movies and shows, and primetime TV all in one place. This press release features multimedia. View the full release here: Comcast launches a new video package for Xfinity Internet customers that brings together live news and top sporting events (Photo: Business Wire) is available for a simple, all-in monthly price of $70 when combined with Xfinity Internet, all backed...
Comcast Names Steve Croney Chief Operating Officer of Connectivity & P...
PHILADELPHIA--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Comcast Corporation (Nasdaq: CMCSA) today announced that Steve Croney has been promoted to a newly created role as Chief Operating Officer for the domestic businesses of its Connectivity & Platforms segment that serves more than 32 million customers. This press release features multimedia. View the full release here: Steve Croney, Chief Operating Officer of Comcast Connectivity & Platforms (Photo: Comcast Corporation) As COO, Croney will lead the teams responsible for Comcast’s residential and commercial businesses in the US, including product strategy, sales a...
Ookla® Research Shows that Xfinity Mobile Speeds Have Skyrocketed 150 ...
PHILADELPHIA--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Ookla’s latest research credits Xfinity Mobile’s PowerBoost for delivering customers 150 percent faster speeds since the innovative feature launched in 2024. PowerBoost delivers speeds of up to 1 Gigabit per second (Gbps) over WiFi at home or at millions of WiFi hotspots across the country. The feature is free to all customers. This press release features multimedia. View the full release here: 'PowerBoost,' a Feature Available to All Xfinity Mobile Customers that Delivers WiFi Speeds Up To 1 Gig, is Credited for Delivering the Superfast Speeds (Photo: Busine...
Comcast Adds Live Odds From FanDuel Into Xfinity Odds Zone on X1
PHILADELPHIA--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Comcast today announced it has added sports betting odds from FanDuel into Xfinity Odds Zone on Xfinity X1, giving customers more ways to view live odds, game lines and prop bets for major sporting events without having to take their eyes off their TV. This press release features multimedia. View the full release here: Comcast adds sports betting odds from FanDuel into Xfinity Odds Zone on Xfinity X1 (Graphic: Business Wire) “X1 is the best seat in the house for , and now with FanDuel as part of Odds Zone, we’re making it even better for fans by integrating odd...
Comcast’s Black Experience on Xfinity Premieres Award-Winning Document...
PHILADELPHIA--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Comcast NBCUniversal today announced the exclusive premiere of the award-winning documentary, Color, on Black Experience on Xfinity and the Xumo Play free streaming app. The 90-minute documentary, from multi-award-winning writer and director John Campbell and featuring acclaimed multidisciplinary artist and founder of Dark Matter Media Alteronce Gumby, takes viewers on a global journey to redefine how color is perceived and understood across different cultures. This press release features multimedia. View the full release here: Comcast’s Black Experience on Xfi...
Harris Blitzer Sports & Entertainment and Comcast Spectacor Announce J...
PHILADELPHIA--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Harris Blitzer Sports & Entertainment (HBSE) and Comcast today announced that HBSE and Comcast Spectacor have entered into a binding agreement to form a 50-50 joint venture to build a world-class, state-of-the-art arena in the South Philadelphia Sports Complex that will be the new home of the Philadelphia 76ers and Philadelphia Flyers. This press release features multimedia. View the full release here: Slated to open in 2031, with the potential to accelerate to an earlier date, the new facility will be one of the finest, most technologically advanced, and sust...
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