reports
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
US Tariffs - Broad Tariffs are Highly Unlikely (7pgs)
Following a number of recent events, we discuss in this note what we think is the most likely outcome for the Pharma industry. We show that broad based tariffs on drugs are highly unlikely, that even if it were to happen, the impact of a 20% tariff is
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
US Tariffs - Transfer Pricing Could Negate Impact (6pgs)
We show that Big Pharma would not have to shift a single element of supply chain to the US and can mitigate most, if not all, of a 20% tariff on drugs, just by changing their transfer pricing strategy. In a scenario where the US corporation tax rate falls to 15% but tariffs are 20%, we show that Big Pharma profits would be unchanged, while the US government tax take would more than double. The losers would be low tax jurisdictions like Ireland, but they would get to keep their manufacturing base...
- Stefano Toffano
BMW BAYERISCHE MOTOREN WERKE AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT
FP TOTAL SE
TKA THYSSENKRUPP AG
EQNR EQUINOR ASA
MT ARCELORMITTAL SA
GALP GALP ENERGIA SGPS SA CLASS B
BEKB BEKAERT SA
AAL ANGLO AMERICAN PLC
RNO RENAULT SA
APAML APERAM SA
ROG ROCHE HOLDING LTD
OUT1V OUTOKUMPU OYJ
EO FAURECIA SA
SSAB A SSAB AB CLASS A
NOVN NOVARTIS AG
DAI DAIMLER AG
GIVN GIVAUDAN SA
POM PLASTIC OMNIUM SE
SZG SALZGITTER AG
TYRES NOKIAN RENKAAT OYJ
OR L'OREAL SA
VOE VOESTALPINE AG
ACX ACERINOX SA
ENI ENI S.P.A.
FR VALEO SE
RWE RWE AG
SAN SANOFI
VOW3 VOLKSWAGEN AG PREF
ERA ERAMET SA
REP REPSOL SA
NDA AURUBIS AG
LPP LPP S.A.
CIE CIE AUTOMOTIVE S.A.
AMG AMG ADVANCED METALLURGICAL GROUP N.V.
RACE FERRARI NV
RIO RIO TINTO PLC
SAP SAP SE
AZN ASTRAZENECA PLC
BHP BHP GROUP LTD
BP. BP P.L.C.
PIRC PIRELLI & C. S.P.A.
AMAG AMAG AUSTRIA METALL AG
GEST GESTAMP AUTOMOCION S.A.
ERF EUROFINS SCIENTIFIC SOCIETE EUROPEENNE
AML ASTON MARTIN LAGONDA GLOBAL HOLDINGS
STLA STELLANTIS N.V.
SHEL SHELL PLC
ML COMPAGNIE GENERALE DES ETABLISSEMENTS MICHELIN
GSK GSK PLC
P911 DR. ING. H.C. F. PORSCHE AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT
NOVO B NOVO NORDISK A/S
ALIV SDB AUTOLIV INC.
BRE BREMBO S.P.A.
- Team Pharma
- Stefano Toffano
BMW BAYERISCHE MOTOREN WERKE AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT
FP TOTAL SE
TKA THYSSENKRUPP AG
EQNR EQUINOR ASA
MT ARCELORMITTAL SA
GALP GALP ENERGIA SGPS SA CLASS B
BEKB BEKAERT SA
AAL ANGLO AMERICAN PLC
RNO RENAULT SA
APAML APERAM SA
ROG ROCHE HOLDING LTD
OUT1V OUTOKUMPU OYJ
EO FAURECIA SA
SSAB A SSAB AB CLASS A
NOVN NOVARTIS AG
DAI DAIMLER AG
GIVN GIVAUDAN SA
POM PLASTIC OMNIUM SE
SZG SALZGITTER AG
TYRES NOKIAN RENKAAT OYJ
OR L'OREAL SA
VOE VOESTALPINE AG
ACX ACERINOX SA
ENI ENI S.P.A.
FR VALEO SE
RWE RWE AG
SAN SANOFI
VOW3 VOLKSWAGEN AG PREF
ERA ERAMET SA
REP REPSOL SA
NDA AURUBIS AG
LPP LPP S.A.
CIE CIE AUTOMOTIVE S.A.
AMG AMG ADVANCED METALLURGICAL GROUP N.V.
RACE FERRARI NV
RIO RIO TINTO PLC
SAP SAP SE
AZN ASTRAZENECA PLC
BHP BHP GROUP LTD
BP. BP P.L.C.
PIRC PIRELLI & C. S.P.A.
AMAG AMAG AUSTRIA METALL AG
GEST GESTAMP AUTOMOCION S.A.
ERF EUROFINS SCIENTIFIC SOCIETE EUROPEENNE
AML ASTON MARTIN LAGONDA GLOBAL HOLDINGS
STLA STELLANTIS N.V.
SHEL SHELL PLC
ML COMPAGNIE GENERALE DES ETABLISSEMENTS MICHELIN
GSK GSK PLC
P911 DR. ING. H.C. F. PORSCHE AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT
NOVO B NOVO NORDISK A/S
ALIV SDB AUTOLIV INC.
BRE BREMBO S.P.A.
- Team Pharma
- Team Pharma
ODDO : Les fondamentaux face à l’incertitude
Les déboires récents de quelques sociétés du secteur (déceptions de CagriSema de Novo, de l’anti-TIGIT de Roche ou investigations en Chine pour AZN) accompagnés de questionnements sur la politique US ont engendré un derating conduisant à une valorisation faciale attractive : PE 26e de 13.2x. Les publications annuelles des 6 large cap Pharma européennes ont été extrêmement rassurantes confirmant les attentes CT et LT du marché. Avec un BPA en croissance moyenne entre 2024 et 2028 de c10%, le PEG ...
- Team Pharma
ODDO : Fundamentals vs uncertainty
The recent setbacks for some sector companies (disappointments over Novo Nordisk’s Cagrisema and Roche’s anti-TIGIT or the investigations in China for AZN) along with question marks over US policy have generated a derating leading to a nominally attractive valuations: P/E 2026e of 13.2x. The full-year earnings reports of the six European large cap pharma companies were extremely reassuring, confirming short- and long-term market expectations. With average expected EPS growth between 2024 and 202...
- Ahmed Ben Salem
FP TOTAL SE
IPN IPSEN SA
TKA THYSSENKRUPP AG
EQNR EQUINOR ASA
MT ARCELORMITTAL SA
GALP GALP ENERGIA SGPS SA CLASS B
BEKB BEKAERT SA
AAL ANGLO AMERICAN PLC
APAML APERAM SA
ROG ROCHE HOLDING LTD
OUT1V OUTOKUMPU OYJ
SSAB A SSAB AB CLASS A
NOVN NOVARTIS AG
SZG SALZGITTER AG
KER KERING SA
VOE VOESTALPINE AG
ACX ACERINOX SA
G ASSICURAZIONI GENERALI S.P.A.
ENI ENI S.P.A.
SAN SANOFI
ERA ERAMET SA
ENEL ENEL SPA
REP REPSOL SA
NDA AURUBIS AG
AMG AMG ADVANCED METALLURGICAL GROUP N.V.
ITX INDUSTRIA DE DISENO TEXTIL S.A.
BC BRUNELLO CUCINELLI S.P.A.
RIO RIO TINTO PLC
AZN ASTRAZENECA PLC
SIE SIEMENS AG
BHP BHP GROUP LTD
BP. BP P.L.C.
REY REPLY S.P.A.
AMAG AMAG AUSTRIA METALL AG
SHL SIEMENS HEALTHINEERS AG
DTG DAIMLER TRUCK
SHEL SHELL PLC
GSK GSK PLC
NOVO B NOVO NORDISK A/S
- Ahmed Ben Salem
FP TOTAL SE
IPN IPSEN SA
TKA THYSSENKRUPP AG
EQNR EQUINOR ASA
MT ARCELORMITTAL SA
GALP GALP ENERGIA SGPS SA CLASS B
BEKB BEKAERT SA
AAL ANGLO AMERICAN PLC
APAML APERAM SA
ROG ROCHE HOLDING LTD
OUT1V OUTOKUMPU OYJ
SSAB A SSAB AB CLASS A
NOVN NOVARTIS AG
SZG SALZGITTER AG
KER KERING SA
VOE VOESTALPINE AG
ACX ACERINOX SA
G ASSICURAZIONI GENERALI S.P.A.
ENI ENI S.P.A.
SAN SANOFI
ERA ERAMET SA
ENEL ENEL SPA
REP REPSOL SA
NDA AURUBIS AG
AMG AMG ADVANCED METALLURGICAL GROUP N.V.
ITX INDUSTRIA DE DISENO TEXTIL S.A.
BC BRUNELLO CUCINELLI S.P.A.
RIO RIO TINTO PLC
AZN ASTRAZENECA PLC
SIE SIEMENS AG
BHP BHP GROUP LTD
BP. BP P.L.C.
REY REPLY S.P.A.
AMAG AMAG AUSTRIA METALL AG
SHL SIEMENS HEALTHINEERS AG
DTG DAIMLER TRUCK
SHEL SHELL PLC
GSK GSK PLC
NOVO B NOVO NORDISK A/S
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
EU Pharma - 5 Reasons for Further Re-rating (Thematic, 42pgs)
Given the macro backdrop & our evidence in this note that Pharma can sustain faster than expected growth for the next decade, we believe investors should add to their Pharma positions. 2025 is the biggest year for pipeline readouts in recent history and we expect this to catalyse a re-rating. We show that 1) Pipelines are very robust, 2) The market underestimates the size of the “monster” blockbusters that account for 14% of all drugs, 3) 15% of 2030 sales are “generic resistant” due to the moda...
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
AZN - Innovation Premium Warranted (BUY, TP £150 [£120], 14pgs)
Our new deep-dive on the P2 pipeline shows that AZN can sustain 6% CAGR sales growth to 2030 despite a number of LOE’s and as a result, we believe AZN warrants a significant innovation premium. We assume a 25% success rate for the P2 pipeline despite AZN historically delivering 30%. Moreover, there are a multitude of catalysts this year that will likely de-risk the L-T growth profile & drive significant cons. upgrades. Our analysis of the baxdrostat opportunity shows that consensus forecasts app...
- ABGSC Healthcare Research
- Alexander Krämer
- Morten Larsen
- Benoit Valleaux
- Steven Gould
- Thomas Zlowodzki
BRE MBANK SA
FP TOTAL SE
EQNR EQUINOR ASA
MT ARCELORMITTAL SA
DBK DEUTSCHE BANK AG
RI PERNOD RICARD SA
DEMANT DEMANT A/S
KOMB KOMERCNI BANKA A.S.
ORSTED ORSTED
RAA RATIONAL AG
SPSN SWISS PRIME SITE AG
ASSA B ASSA ABLOY AB CLASS B
INGA ING GROEP NV
AD KONINKLIJKE AHOLD DELHAIZE N.V.
AZN ASTRAZENECA PLC
SHL SIEMENS HEALTHINEERS AG
VWS VESTAS WIND SYSTEMS
ARM ARM HOLDINGS PLC
- Benoit Valleaux
- Steven Gould
- Thomas Zlowodzki
BRE MBANK SA
FP TOTAL SE
EQNR EQUINOR ASA
MT ARCELORMITTAL SA
DBK DEUTSCHE BANK AG
RI PERNOD RICARD SA
DEMANT DEMANT A/S
KOMB KOMERCNI BANKA A.S.
ORSTED ORSTED
RAA RATIONAL AG
SPSN SWISS PRIME SITE AG
ASSA B ASSA ABLOY AB CLASS B
INGA ING GROEP NV
AD KONINKLIJKE AHOLD DELHAIZE N.V.
AZN ASTRAZENECA PLC
SHL SIEMENS HEALTHINEERS AG
VWS VESTAS WIND SYSTEMS
ARM ARM HOLDINGS PLC
- Damien Choplain
- Martial Descoutures
- Damien Choplain
- Martial Descoutures
- ABGSC Healthcare Research
- Alexander Krämer
- Morten Larsen
- ABGSC Healthcare Research
- Alexander Krämer
- Morten Larsen
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