reports
- Research Team
The Rear-View Mirror – CEE markets: Greek equities gained the most i...
EME Equity Market – April 2018 Market performance – ASE gained the most in April, while the ISE30 lost the most. The MSCI EME dropped by 3.2% mom in EUR terms. The ASE index (+10% mom) reported the largest rate of return, followed by the Polish WIG20 index (+2.9%), and the BUX (+2.7% mom); while the Turkish ISE30 lost -10.4% mom, followed by the Russian MICEX (-6.3% mom), and the Czech PX index (-1.4% mom). The Romanian BET index stayed fairly flat (-0.1% mom).
EUROB EUROBANK ERGASIAS SERVICES & HOLDINGS SA
PEO BANK POLSKA KASA OPIEKI SA
KER KERNEL HOLDING S.A.
JMT JERONIMO MARTINS SGPS S.A.
OPAP GREEK ORGANISATION OF FOOTBALL PROGNOSTICS SA
KRU KRUK S.A.
EXAE HELLENIC EXCHANGES SA
TCELL TURKCELL ILETISIM HIZMETLERI A.S.
ATRS ATRIUM EUROPEAN REAL ESTATE LIMITED
EBS ERSTE GROUP BANK AG
OGZD GAZPROM
CDR CD PROJEKT S.A.
ELPE HELLENIC PETROLEUM SA
IMO1 IMMOFINANZ AG
PGN POLSKIE GORNICTWO NAFTOWE I GAZOWNICTWO SA
PKO PKO BANK POLSKI S.A.
CETV CENTRAL EUROPEAN MEDIA ENTERPRISES LTD. CL A
FFGRP FOLLI FOLLIE S.A.
TITK TITAN CEMENT CO. SA
BHW BANK HANDLOWY W WARSZAWIE S.A.
FP FONDUL PROPRIETATEA
ARHOF AMREST HOLDING
SIF2 SIF MOLDOVA S.A.
PODRRA PODRAVKA
SPL SANTANDER BANK POLSKA SA
MIL BANK MILLENNIUM SA
BSK ING BANK SLASKI S.A.
FOYRK FOURLIS HOLDINGS S.A.
MTELEKOM MAGYAR TELEKOM TELECOMMUNICATIONS
KGH KGHM POLSKA MIEDZ S.A.
TPS ORANGE POLSKA S.A.
PKN POLSKI KONCERN NAFTOWY ORLEN S.A.
MYTIL MYTILINEOS S.A.
SAR GR. SARANTIS S.A.
LPP LPP S.A.
AKBNK AKBANK TAS
AEFES ANADOLU EFES BIRACILIK VE MALT SANAYII A.S.
ASELS ASELSAN ELEKTRONIK SANAYI VE TICARET A.S. CLASS B
ENKAI ENKA INSAAT VE SANAYI A.S.
CCC CCC SA
CCOLA COCA-COLA ICECEK A.S.
AEGN AEGEAN AIRLINES SA
TTKOM TURK TELEKOMUNIKASYON A.S.
ENA ENEA S.A.
EKGYO EMLAK KONUT GAYRIMENKUL YATIRIM ORTAKLIGI A.G.
NOG NOSTRUM OIL & GAS PLC
LVC LIVECHAT SOFTWARE SA
PCM PRIME CAR MANAGEMENT
ALPHA ALPHA BANK AE
ETE NATIONAL BANK OF GREECE S.A.
PPC PUBLIC POWER CORPORATION S.A.
OTP OTP BANK NYRT
PPA PIRAEUS PORT AUTHORITY S.A.
CAR INTER CARS S.A.
FROTO FORD OTOMOTIV SANAYI A.S.
EUR EUROCASH S.A.
PJP X5 RETAIL GROUP N.V. SPONSORED GDR REGS
LTS GRUPA LOTOS S.A.
ECH ECHO INVESTMENT
TKFEN TEKFEN HOLDING
CPS CYFROWY POLSAT SA
GPW WARSAW STOCK EXCHANGE
MDG MEDICALGORITHMICS SA
ALR ALIOR BANK SA
OTOEL AUTOHELLAS S.A.
PKP PKP CARGO
WPL WIRTUALNA POLSKA HOLDING SA
TLV BANCA TRANSILVANIA S.A.
NVTK NOVATEK JSC SPONSORED GDR REGS
N7MG NLMK (GDR)
SVST SEVERSTAL (GDR)
TELEC O2 CZECH REPUBLIC A.S.
SNP PETROM S.A.
TOFAS TOFAS TURK OTOMOBIL FABRIKASI A.S.
5M71 MAGNIT PJSC SPONSORED GDR REGS
MMK MAGNITOGORSK IRON & STEEL WORKS (GDR)
EREGL ERDEMIR
MOEX MOSCOW EXCHANGE MICEX-RTS PJSC
PLY PLAY COMMUNICATIONS SA
TPEIR PIRAEUS FINANCIAL HOLDINGS S.A.
PFL PFLEIDERER GROUP SA
NIIS NAFTNA INDUSTRIJA SRBIJE NOVA SAD
MNOD NORILSK NICKEL
COTE CONPET SA
TEL C.N.T.E.E. TRANSELECTRICA
ELSA SOCIETATEA ENERGETICA ELECTRICA
TGN SOCIETATEA NATIONALA DE TRANSPORT GAZE NATURALE TRANSGAZ S.A.
KAZ LN KAZ MINERALS
HTO OTE
JSW JSW
SAB1L SIAULIU BANKAS
BELA JUMBO
CEZ CEZ
OMV OMV
EVR EVRAZ
RBI RAIFFEISEN BANK INTERNATIONAL
DOM PW DOM DEVELOPMENT
UQA AV UNIQA INSURANCE GROUP
LNTA LI LENTA
UNIP UNIPETROL
SFG SPHERA FRANCHISE GROUP SA
ARGRRA ATLANTIC GRUPA DD
FTE FORTE ENERGY NL
SBER SBERBANK OF RUSSIA PJSC
SGGD SURGUTNEFTEGAS OJSC
- Research Team
WOOD Morning (30 April)
HEADLINES: * CCC: weak 1Q18 results, miss vs. the consensus, but better than we expected NEGATIVE * NLMK: recommends large dividend for 1Q18, at 3.6% quarterly yield (15% annualised) POSITIVE * Public Power Corporation: 4Q17 boosted by PSO one-off, weak cash generation NEGATIVE * Electrica: real rate of return might be cut to 5% NEGATIVE * Electrica: new board, more state representatives * National Bank: VRS details POSITIVE * OMV: signs new offshore agreement in UAE wi...
CCC CCC SA
PCM PRIME CAR MANAGEMENT
ETE NATIONAL BANK OF GREECE S.A.
PPC PUBLIC POWER CORPORATION S.A.
WPL WIRTUALNA POLSKA HOLDING SA
N7MG NLMK (GDR)
EREGL ERDEMIR
ELSA SOCIETATEA ENERGETICA ELECTRICA
TGN SOCIETATEA NATIONALA DE TRANSPORT GAZE NATURALE TRANSGAZ S.A.
GARAN GARANTI BANK
OMV OMV
- Research Team
WOOD Morning (27 April)
HEADLINES: * Greece: keep calm, this time it is real! (AEGN, ALPHA, BELA, CCH, ELPE, ETE, EUROB, EXAE, FOYRK, GRIV, HTO, MOH, MYTIL, OPAP, PPA, PPC, SAR, TITK, TPEIR) * Gazprom: 4Q17 results - weaker than expected NEGATIVE * Ford Otosan: 1Q18 review - a strong set of results POSITIVE * Tekfen: 1Q18 review - strong quarter, as expected NEUTRAL * Tofas: 1Q18 review - revenues and EBITDA in line, beat on net income NEUTRAL * Kruk: 1Q18 - 8-13% beat on net income; 30% yoy growth i...
OPAP GREEK ORGANISATION OF FOOTBALL PROGNOSTICS SA
KRU KRUK S.A.
EXAE HELLENIC EXCHANGES SA
OGZD GAZPROM
ELPE HELLENIC PETROLEUM SA
FFGRP FOLLI FOLLIE S.A.
TITK TITAN CEMENT CO. SA
BHW BANK HANDLOWY W WARSZAWIE S.A.
FOYRK FOURLIS HOLDINGS S.A.
MYTIL MYTILINEOS S.A.
SAR GR. SARANTIS S.A.
CIE CIECH S.A.
EUPRO GRIVALIA PROPERTIES REIC
AEGN AEGEAN AIRLINES SA
ETE NATIONAL BANK OF GREECE S.A.
PPC PUBLIC POWER CORPORATION S.A.
OTP OTP BANK NYRT
PPA PIRAEUS PORT AUTHORITY S.A.
FROTO FORD OTOMOTIV SANAYI A.S.
PJP X5 RETAIL GROUP N.V. SPONSORED GDR REGS
LTS GRUPA LOTOS S.A.
TKFEN TEKFEN HOLDING
GPW WARSAW STOCK EXCHANGE
OTOEL AUTOHELLAS S.A.
PKP PKP CARGO
TLV BANCA TRANSILVANIA S.A.
NVTK NOVATEK JSC SPONSORED GDR REGS
TELEC O2 CZECH REPUBLIC A.S.
MONET MONETA MONEY BANK AS
TOFAS TOFAS TURK OTOMOBIL FABRIKASI A.S.
EREGL ERDEMIR
TPEIR PIRAEUS FINANCIAL HOLDINGS S.A.
MNOD NORILSK NICKEL
DNP DINO POLSKA S.A.
ELSA SOCIETATEA ENERGETICA ELECTRICA
KAZ LN KAZ MINERALS
HTO OTE
ARGRRA ATLANTIC GROUP
BELA JUMBO
PETG PETROL GROUP
EVR EVRAZ
ALPHA ALPHA BANK
WIZZ WIZZ AIR
- Oytun Altasli
- Research Team
Turkish Non-financials: In growth we trust (AEFES, ASELS, AYGAZ, BIMAS...
In our previous report, in November 2017, our base-case scenario was another leg up for the market in 1H18E, helped by upside for growth expectations and TRY stability supported by the CBRT, despite the significant volatility at the time. After a brief rally, during which the BIST100 peaked at nearly 20% above its November bottom, it seems we are back to where we started, with the market hit with another bout of currency and interest rate spikes. This time, we believe that the upside in equities...
BIMAS BIM BIRLESIK MAGAZALAR A.S.
DOAS DOGUS OTOMOTIV SERVIS VE TICARET A.S.
AEFES ANADOLU EFES BIRACILIK VE MALT SANAYII A.S.
ASELS ASELSAN ELEKTRONIK SANAYI VE TICARET A.S. CLASS B
ENKAI ENKA INSAAT VE SANAYI A.S.
GUBRF GUBRE FABRIKALARI T.A.S.
PETKM PETKIM PETROKIMYA HOLDING ANONIM SIRKETI
CCOLA COCA-COLA ICECEK A.S.
TTKOM TURK TELEKOMUNIKASYON A.S.
BIZIM BIZIM TOPTAN SATIS MAGAZALARI AS
MGROS MIGROS TICARET A.S
EKGYO EMLAK KONUT GAYRIMENKUL YATIRIM ORTAKLIGI A.G.
PGSUS.E PEGASUS HAVA TASIMACILIGI AS
FROTO FORD OTOMOTIV SANAYI A.S.
OTKAR OTOKAR OTOMOTIV VE SAVUNMA SANAYI A.S.
THYAO TURK HAVA YOLLARI A.O.
TUPRS TURKIYE PETROL RAFINERILERI A.S.
SAHOL HACI OMER SABANCI HOLDING A.S.
TKFEN TEKFEN HOLDING
TOFAS TOFAS TURK OTOMOBIL FABRIKASI A.S.
EREGL ERDEMIR
DOC DO&CO
DPEU DP EURASIA
- Research Team
The Rear-View Mirror – CEE markets: Romanian index the top performer...
EME Equity Market – March 2018 Market performance – only Romania and Prague in positive territory. The MSCI EME lost 5.8% mom in March, continuing the negative trend after February’s 1.1% contraction. The Romanian BET index was the best performer in March, +3.1%, while Prague’s PX index remained broadly flat, recording a small gain of 0.3%. On the negative side, the Turkish ISE30 performed poorly, losing 9.1%, followed by the Warsaw WIG20, -7.3%. The Greek ASE index fell by 6.6% and Mosc...
EUROB EUROBANK ERGASIAS SERVICES & HOLDINGS SA
PEO BANK POLSKA KASA OPIEKI SA
KRU KRUK S.A.
EXAE HELLENIC EXCHANGES SA
ATRS ATRIUM EUROPEAN REAL ESTATE LIMITED
BOCH BANK OF COMMERCE HOLDINGS
OGZD GAZPROM
KRKG KRKA D.D.
CDR CD PROJEKT S.A.
PKO PKO BANK POLSKI S.A.
KOMB KOMERCNI BANKA A.S.
BHW BANK HANDLOWY W WARSZAWIE S.A.
ARHOF AMREST HOLDING
BIMAS BIM BIRLESIK MAGAZALAR A.S.
SIF2 SIF MOLDOVA S.A.
PZU POWSZECHNY ZAKLAD UBEZPIECZEN SPOLKA AKCYJNA
DOAS DOGUS OTOMOTIV SERVIS VE TICARET A.S.
PODRRA PODRAVKA
SPL SANTANDER BANK POLSKA SA
MIL BANK MILLENNIUM SA
BSK ING BANK SLASKI S.A.
KGH KGHM POLSKA MIEDZ S.A.
TPS ORANGE POLSKA S.A.
CAI CA IMMOBILIEN ANLAGEN AG
PKN POLSKI KONCERN NAFTOWY ORLEN S.A.
SAR GR. SARANTIS S.A.
LPP LPP S.A.
AEFES ANADOLU EFES BIRACILIK VE MALT SANAYII A.S.
ASELS ASELSAN ELEKTRONIK SANAYI VE TICARET A.S. CLASS B
ENKAI ENKA INSAAT VE SANAYI A.S.
CCC CCC SA
CCOLA COCA-COLA ICECEK A.S.
AEGN AEGEAN AIRLINES SA
ENA ENEA S.A.
PGE PGE POLSKA GRUPA ENERGETYCZNA S.A.
EKGYO EMLAK KONUT GAYRIMENKUL YATIRIM ORTAKLIGI A.G.
AFLT AEROFLOT RUSSIAN AIRLINES
PGSUS.E PEGASUS HAVA TASIMACILIGI AS
LVC LIVECHAT SOFTWARE SA
PCM PRIME CAR MANAGEMENT
ETE NATIONAL BANK OF GREECE S.A.
PPC PUBLIC POWER CORPORATION S.A.
OTP OTP BANK NYRT
CAR INTER CARS S.A.
AYGAZ AYGAZ A.S.
FROTO FORD OTOMOTIV SANAYI A.S.
THYAO TURK HAVA YOLLARI A.O.
TUPRS TURKIYE PETROL RAFINERILERI A.S.
SAHOL HACI OMER SABANCI HOLDING A.S.
LTS GRUPA LOTOS S.A.
ECH ECHO INVESTMENT
CPS CYFROWY POLSAT SA
GPW WARSAW STOCK EXCHANGE
TPE TAURON POLSKA ENERGIA S.A.
MDG MEDICALGORITHMICS SA
ALR ALIOR BANK SA
OTOEL AUTOHELLAS S.A.
PKP PKP CARGO
ICD ENERGA SA
HB HELLENIC BANK LTD.
WPL WIRTUALNA POLSKA HOLDING SA
NVTK NOVATEK JSC SPONSORED GDR REGS
N7MG NLMK (GDR)
TLV BANCA TRANSILVANIA
SVST SEVERSTAL (GDR)
TELEC O2 CZECH REPUBLIC A.S.
TOFAS TOFAS TURK OTOMOBIL FABRIKASI A.S.
MMK MAGNITOGORSK IRON & STEEL WORKS (GDR)
EREGL ERDEMIR
PLY PLAY COMMUNICATIONS SA
TPEIR PIRAEUS FINANCIAL HOLDINGS S.A.
DIGI DIGI COMMUNICATIONS NV
MOL MOL HUNGARIAN OIL & GAS PLC CLASS A
MNOD NORILSK NICKEL
DNP DINO POLSKA S.A.
LKOD LUKOIL
BVB S.C. BURSA DE VALORI BUCURESTI S.A.
0RO5 MEDLIFE
GEB BANK OF GEORGIA
TGN SOCIETATEA NATIONALA DE TRANSPORT GAZE NATURALE TRANSGAZ S.A.
HTO OTE
JSW JSW
RICHT RICHTER
SAB1L SIAULIU BANKAS
SBER03 SBERBANK
ARGRRA ATLANTIC GROUP
ANY ANY SECURITY PRINTING COMPANY
WABERERS WABERER'S INTERNATIONAL ZRT
SGGD SURGUTNEFTEGAS
ATAD TATNEFT
CEZ CEZ
KOFOL KOFOLA
OMV OMV
EVR EVRAZ
RBI RAIFFEISEN BANK INTERNATIONAL
ALPHA ALPHA BANK
DPEU DP EURASIA
DOM PW DOM DEVELOPMENT
UQA AV UNIQA INSURANCE GROUP
LNTA LI LENTA
UNIP UNIPETROL
- Andy Jones
- Pawel Wieprzowski
- PhD
EMEA Steel Producers: Making EVRAZ great again (Erdemir and NLMK downg...
After reporting their 4Q17 results, all the steels under our coverage saw strong growth in EBITDA, despite the seasonal weakness in the Russian market, as high international prices lifted export volumes and boosted margins. The seasonal working capital build up was high, limiting FCF, but dividends remained strong as many payments exceeded FCF. With prices starting the year even higher, 1Q18E should be strong and our previous 2018E price assumptions look far too conservative. We therefore increa...
- Research Team
The Rear-View Mirror – CEE markets: Moscow MICEX the regional top pe...
EME Equity Market – February 2018 Market performance –Moscow the regional top performer in February. In February, the MSCI EME lost 1.1% mom in EUR terms, vs. the 6.6% gain in the previous month. The largest rate of return in February was realised by the MICEX, up 2.1%, followed by Bucharest’s BET (+0.9% mom) and the Turkish ISE30 (+0.7%). The other regional indices ended the month in negative territory, with Warsaw’s WIG20 recording the largest drop (-7.9%) and Budapest’s BUX followin...
PEO BANK POLSKA KASA OPIEKI SA
KER KERNEL HOLDING S.A.
EXAE HELLENIC EXCHANGES SA
ATRS ATRIUM EUROPEAN REAL ESTATE LIMITED
EBS ERSTE GROUP BANK AG
BOCH BANK OF COMMERCE HOLDINGS
ELPE HELLENIC PETROLEUM SA
IMO1 IMMOFINANZ AG
PGN POLSKIE GORNICTWO NAFTOWE I GAZOWNICTWO SA
ISCTR TURKIYE IS BANKASI ANONIM SIRKETI CLASS C
KOMB KOMERCNI BANKA A.S.
CETV CENTRAL EUROPEAN MEDIA ENTERPRISES LTD. CL A
BHW BANK HANDLOWY W WARSZAWIE S.A.
FP FONDUL PROPRIETATEA
ARHOF AMREST HOLDING
SIF2 SIF MOLDOVA S.A.
WIZZ WIZZ AIR HOLDINGS PLC
PZU POWSZECHNY ZAKLAD UBEZPIECZEN SPOLKA AKCYJNA
DOAS DOGUS OTOMOTIV SERVIS VE TICARET A.S.
SPL SANTANDER BANK POLSKA SA
MIL BANK MILLENNIUM SA
BSK ING BANK SLASKI S.A.
MTELEKOM MAGYAR TELEKOM TELECOMMUNICATIONS
TPS ORANGE POLSKA S.A.
PKN POLSKI KONCERN NAFTOWY ORLEN S.A.
MYTIL MYTILINEOS S.A.
LPP LPP S.A.
AKBNK AKBANK TAS
ASELS ASELSAN ELEKTRONIK SANAYI VE TICARET A.S. CLASS B
ENKAI ENKA INSAAT VE SANAYI A.S.
CCC CCC SA
CCOLA COCA-COLA ICECEK A.S.
EUPRO GRIVALIA PROPERTIES REIC
HALKB TURKIYE HALK BANKASI ANONIM SIRKETI
ENA ENEA S.A.
BIZIM BIZIM TOPTAN SATIS MAGAZALARI AS
LWB LUBELSKI WEGIEL BOGDANKA S.A.
PGE PGE POLSKA GRUPA ENERGETYCZNA S.A.
EKGYO EMLAK KONUT GAYRIMENKUL YATIRIM ORTAKLIGI A.G.
AFLT AEROFLOT RUSSIAN AIRLINES
GNB GETIN NOBLE BANK SA
PGSUS.E PEGASUS HAVA TASIMACILIGI AS
LVC LIVECHAT SOFTWARE SA
GHG GEORGIA HEALTHCARE GROUP
ETE NATIONAL BANK OF GREECE S.A.
PPC PUBLIC POWER CORPORATION S.A.
PPA PIRAEUS PORT AUTHORITY S.A.
CAR INTER CARS S.A.
AYGAZ AYGAZ A.S.
FROTO FORD OTOMOTIV SANAYI A.S.
OTKAR OTOKAR OTOMOTIV VE SAVUNMA SANAYI A.S.
TUPRS TURKIYE PETROL RAFINERILERI A.S.
SAHOL HACI OMER SABANCI HOLDING A.S.
EUR EUROCASH S.A.
LTS GRUPA LOTOS S.A.
VAKBN TURKIYE VAKIFLAR BANKASI TURK ANONIM ORTAKLIGI
GSPARK GRAPHISOFT PARK SE
TKFEN TEKFEN HOLDING
CPS CYFROWY POLSAT SA
GPW WARSAW STOCK EXCHANGE
TPE TAURON POLSKA ENERGIA S.A.
MDG MEDICALGORITHMICS SA
ALR ALIOR BANK SA
OTOEL AUTOHELLAS S.A.
PKP PKP CARGO
ICD ENERGA SA
HB HELLENIC BANK LTD.
WPL WIRTUALNA POLSKA HOLDING SA
BRD BRD-GROUPE SOCIETE GENERALE
TLV BANCA TRANSILVANIA S.A.
NVTK NOVATEK JSC SPONSORED GDR REGS
TBCG TBC BANK GROUP
N7MG NLMK (GDR)
SVST SEVERSTAL (GDR)
TELEC O2 CZECH REPUBLIC A.S.
MONET MONETA MONEY BANK AS
SNG SOCIETATEA NATIONALA DE GAZE NATURALE ROMGAZ SA
SIF3 SIF TRANSILVANIA S.A.
SNP PETROM S.A.
TOFAS TOFAS TURK OTOMOBIL FABRIKASI A.S.
5M71 MAGNIT PJSC SPONSORED GDR REGS
SIF1 SIF BANAT-CRISANA S.A.
MMK MAGNITOGORSK IRON & STEEL WORKS (GDR)
EREGL ERDEMIR
PLY PLAY COMMUNICATIONS SA
TPEIR PIRAEUS FINANCIAL HOLDINGS S.A.
VTBR VTB BANK (GDR)
PFL PFLEIDERER GROUP SA
DIGI DIGI COMMUNICATIONS NV
SIF5 SOCIETATEA DE INVESTITII FINANCIARE OLTENIA SA
MOL MOL HUNGARIAN OIL & GAS PLC CLASS A
NIIS NAFTNA INDUSTRIJA SRBIJE NOVA SAD
COTE CONPET SA
SNN SOCIETATEA NATIONALA NUCLEARELECTRICA SA
TEL C.N.T.E.E. TRANSELECTRICA
ELSA SOCIETATEA ENERGETICA ELECTRICA
BVB S.C. BURSA DE VALORI BUCURESTI S.A.
0RO5 MEDLIFE
CCH COCA-COLA HBC
GEB BANK OF GEORGIA
DOC DO&CO
FTE FORTE
TGN SOCIETATEA NATIONALA DE TRANSPORT GAZE NATURALE TRANSGAZ S.A.
KAZ LN KAZ MINERALS
HTO OTE
SIF4 SIF MUNTENIA S.A.
JSW JSW
RICHT RICHTER
SAB1L SIAULIU BANKAS
SBER03 SBERBANK
GARAN GARANTI BANK
CEZ CEZ
OMV OMV
EVR EVRAZ
UNIP UNIPETROL
- Please Change Name John C Forrey
- Please Change Name Gianmarco Migliavacca
Erdemir: Erdemir Credit Opinion - Update post Q3 '17
CORPORATES CREDIT OPINION 17 November 2017 Update RATINGS Erdemir Domicile Turkey Long Term Rating Ba2 Type LT Corporate Family Ratings - Fgn Curr Outlook Stable Please see the ratings section  at the end of this report for more information. The ratings and outlook shown reflect information as of the publication date. Contacts Gianmarco Migliavacca +44.20.7772.5217
- Please Change Name John C Forrey
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