Investor sentiment remains very strong, with the JPM EMBI Global Diversified up by 1.0% in May so far (vs +2.2% in April) and the year-to-date loss reducing to 1.5%. When it comes to this week's dynamics, we can roughly split into halves, with lower UST yields and widening spreads in the first half followed by a reversal in the second. All in all, the EMBIGD is up by 0.4% this week (as of yesterday's close), compared to +3.3% for equities (MSCI EM) and +0.4% for EM FX (JPM EMCI).
In this report we offer an alternative way of looking at Gazprom's strategy which much better explains the company's decisions. Using this inverted viewpoint, we deduce Gazprom's likely future investment program - never disclosed before - and suggest the way to play it is via the pipe producers. We also argue that Lukoil is trading at bargain levels, given the company's newfound commitment to capital discipline, and then suggest why market might take its time to bid up the stock.
EME Equity Market – April 2018 Market performance – ASE gained the most in April, while the ISE30 lost the most. The MSCI EME dropped by 3.2% mom in EUR terms. The ASE index (+10% mom) reported the largest rate of return, followed by the Polish WIG20 index (+2.9%), and the BUX (+2.7% mom); while the Turkish ISE30 lost -10.4% mom, followed by the Russian MICEX (-6.3% mom), and the Czech PX index (-1.4% mom). The Romanian BET index stayed fairly flat (-0.1% mom).
HEADLINES: * CCC: weak 1Q18 results, miss vs. the consensus, but better than we expected NEGATIVE * NLMK: recommends large dividend for 1Q18, at 3.6% quarterly yield (15% annualised) POSITIVE * Public Power Corporation: 4Q17 boosted by PSO one-off, weak cash generation NEGATIVE * Electrica: real rate of return might be cut to 5% NEGATIVE * Electrica: new board, more state representatives * National Bank: VRS details POSITIVE * OMV: signs new offshore agreement in UAE wi...
HEADLINES: * Greece: keep calm, this time it is real! (AEGN, ALPHA, BELA, CCH, ELPE, ETE, EUROB, EXAE, FOYRK, GRIV, HTO, MOH, MYTIL, OPAP, PPA, PPC, SAR, TITK, TPEIR) * Gazprom: 4Q17 results - weaker than expected NEGATIVE * Ford Otosan: 1Q18 review - a strong set of results POSITIVE * Tekfen: 1Q18 review - strong quarter, as expected NEUTRAL * Tofas: 1Q18 review - revenues and EBITDA in line, beat on net income NEUTRAL * Kruk: 1Q18 - 8-13% beat on net income; 30% yoy growth i...
MARKET COMMENT - WEAK RUBLE, STRONG OIL AND PLENTY OF CENTRAL BANK ACTION TO COMEThe RTS and MSCI EM gained 0.8% (to 1,147) and 0.4% yesterday, respectively. Indicators look decent this morning, though investors may seek to position cautiously ahead of Russia's long May holidays. Key events in coming days include the CBR meeting today and Fed meeting next Wednesday.STORIES> Inflows decelerate after two heavy weeks> US 10y hits 3% - trouble ahead > CBR preview: Cut to be put on hold> Gazprom 4Q17...
КОММЕÐТÐРИЙ И ПРОГÐОЗ - РУБЛЬ СЛÐБЕЕТ, ÐЕФТЬ ДОРОЖÐЕТ, ЦЕÐТРОБÐÐКИ ГОТОВЯТСЯ ДЕЙСТВОВÐÐ¢Ð¬Ð˜Ð½Ð´ÐµÐºÑ Ð Ð¢Ð¡ вчера Ð²Ñ‹Ñ€Ð¾Ñ Ð½Ð° 0,8% до 1 147 пунктов, MSCI EM - на 0,4%. Утренние индикаторы выглÑдÑÑ‚ обнадеживающе, Ñ…Ð¾Ñ‚Ñ Ð² преддверии длинных майÑких праздников в РоÑÑии инвеÑторы могут предпочеÑть Ð...
РЫÐОК Ð’ÐЕШÐЕГО ДОЛГРСТРÐРСÐГВчера роÑÑийÑкие Ñуверенные еврооблигации пользовалиÑÑŒ ÑпроÑом, так как доходноÑть деÑÑтилетних казначейÑких облигаций СШРÑнижалаÑÑŒ. РоÑÑиÑ-42 показали наибольший роÑÑ‚ в Ñегменте (на 0,3 п. п.), РоÑÑиÑ-27 подорожали на 0,2 п. п. до 97,2% (4,6%, Z+163). ГОСУÐ...
CIS EUROBOND MARKETRussian sovereign Eurobonds were supported by a decline in US Treasury yields yesterday. The Russia 42 posted the best result in the segment, adding 0.3 pp, while the Russia 27 advanced 0.2 pp to 97.2% (YTM 4.6%, Z-spread 163 bps). GOVERNMENT DEBTThe weakening ruble pushed OFZ yields considerably higher in the morning, though local investors exhibited modest demand later. Yields closed around 2 bps higher at the short end and 5 bps higher at the long end. Volumes were low. Alm...
HEADLINES: * Turkey macro: do not expect big changes post rate hike * Getin Noble Bank: 2017 results overshadowed by capital raising announcement NEGATIVE * Getin Noble Bank: Leszek Czarnecki comments on GNB and Idea Bank investments * X5: head of Pyatetochka departs NEGATIVE * Warsaw Stock Exchange: proposes PLN 2.2/share dividend from 2017 net profit NEGATIVE * Jeronimo Martins: 1Q18 beat, positive outlook for all markets POSITIVE * CME: 1Q18 results - 7% OIBDA beat, Ti...
MARKET COMMENTThe Russian market crept down for a second day in a row on Friday, the RTS declining 0.7% to 1,146. The MSCI EM fell 1.3%. Few strong catalysts emerged for global markets. The obvious highlight on this week's calendar is the CBR meeting for Russian markets, while globally investors will also have eyes on the ECB and BoJ meetings, and a number of second-tier political events.
КОММЕÐТÐРИЙ И ПРОГÐОЗ - Ð ÐЗÐИЦРВ ДИÐÐМИКЕ С ÐÐЧÐЛРГОДРСОКРÐЩÐЕТСЯВ пÑтницу роÑÑийÑкий рынок ÑнижалÑÑ Ð²Ñ‚Ð¾Ñ€Ð¾Ð¹ день подрÑд. Ð˜Ð½Ð´ÐµÐºÑ Ð Ð¢Ð¡ отÑтупил на 0,7% до 1 146 пунктов, Ð¸Ð½Ð´ÐµÐºÑ MSCI EM - на 1,3%. Важных факторов, ÑпоÑобных повлиÑть на глобальные рынки, было мало. Ð”Ð»Ñ Ñ€Ð¾ÑÑийÑкого рынка...
MARKET COMMENT - RTS CLIMBS 3.8% AS TENSIONS EASE The MSCI Russia is now some 3.0 pp below the MSCI EM YTD. The market climbed yesterday as officials around the world took a much more constructive tone on Syria and more generally, which has eased tensions. Meanwhile, Brent remains above $70/bbl. Most data on today’s calendar concerns oil. STORIES > Passive investors piled into Russia last week (yes, really) > Chief Economist's View: Balance of payments to change significantly > Russian budget...
КОММЕÐТÐРИЙ И ПРОГÐОЗ - ИÐДЕКС РТС ПРИБÐВИЛ 3,8% ÐРФОÐЕ СПÐДРÐÐПРЯЖЕÐÐÐžÐ¡Ð¢Ð˜Ð˜Ð½Ð´ÐµÐºÑ MSCI Russia на данный момент Ñ Ð½Ð°Ñ‡Ð°Ð»Ð° года отÑтает от индекÑа MSCI EM примерно на 3 п. п. Вчера роÑÑийÑкий рынок выроÑ, так как политики в разных Ñтранах мира в целом занÑли более конÑтруктивную позицию,...
EME Equity Market – March 2018 Market performance – only Romania and Prague in positive territory. The MSCI EME lost 5.8% mom in March, continuing the negative trend after February’s 1.1% contraction. The Romanian BET index was the best performer in March, +3.1%, while Prague’s PX index remained broadly flat, recording a small gain of 0.3%. On the negative side, the Turkish ISE30 performed poorly, losing 9.1%, followed by the Warsaw WIG20, -7.3%. The Greek ASE index fell by 6.6% and Mosc...
КОММЕÐТÐРИЙ И ПРОГÐОЗ - ГЛОБÐЛЬÐЫЕ РЫÐКИ УПÐЛИ ВСЛЕД ЗРТЕХÐОЛОГИЧЕСКИМ СЕКТОРОМ СШРВчерашние торги оказалиÑÑŒ неблагоприÑтными Ð´Ð»Ñ Ñ€Ð¸Ñкованных активов, в том чиÑле роÑÑийÑких акций, из-за Ð¾Ð¶Ð¸Ð²Ð»ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ Ð³Ð»Ð¾Ð±Ð°Ð»ÑŒÐ½Ñ‹Ñ… опаÑений на фоне возобновившегоÑÑ Ð¿Ð°Ð´ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ Ð½Ð° рынке СШÐ, оÑоб...
РЫÐОК Ð’ÐЕШÐЕГО ДОЛГРСТРÐРСÐГ Ðа рынке внешних долговых обÑзательÑтв Ð¸Ð·Ð¼ÐµÐ½ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ Ñ†ÐµÐ½ были минимальными из-за отÑутÑÑ‚Ð²Ð¸Ñ Ð¼Ð½Ð¾Ð³Ð¸Ñ… иноÑтранных инвеÑторов. ГОСУДÐРСТВЕÐÐЫЕ ЦЕÐÐЫЕ БУМÐГИ ÐктивноÑть торгов ОФЗ была минимальной в ÑвÑзи Ñ выходными в Европе. Снижение доходноÑÑ‚Ð...
CIS EUROBOND MARKET Due to the absence of many foreign investors, there were only minor price movements in the CIS Eurobond market yesterday. GOVERNMENT DEBT Trading was minimal in the OFZ market yesterday because of the holiday in Europe. Yields were falling, with the biggest decline 4 bps. STORIES > Russia Economic Monthly: Improving Russia's business environment > Quarterly GDP statistics for 9m17 revised, now closer to our estimates > Russian 1Q18 oil production statistics > Russian 1Q18...
РЫÐОК Ð’ÐЕШÐЕГО ДОЛГРСТРÐРСÐГ Ð’ Ñреду на рынке Ñуверенных еврооблигаций доминировали продажи. Давление на рынок оказывало как предÑтоÑщее размещение Ñуверенного выпуÑка, так и внешнеполитичеÑкие ÑобытиÑ. Хуже рынка выглÑдели РоÑÑиÑ-28, ÑнизившиÑÑŒ в цене на 0,4 п. п. до 167,25% ...
CIS EUROBOND MARKET Selling prevailed in the Russian sovereign Eurobond market yesterday, driven both by the upcoming placement and by foreign political events. The Russia 28 lost the most, falling 0.4 pp to 167.25% (YTM 4.5%, Z-spread 167 bps). The Russia 47 lost nearly the same amount to close at 100.99% (YTM 5.2%, Z-spread 228 bps). GOVERNMENT DEBT Things were rather quiet in the OFZ market early on yesterday, but UK Prime Minister Theresa May’s announcement of measures against Russia in ...
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