Essity Aktiebolag (publ): 1 director

A director at Essity Aktiebolag (publ) maiden bought 1,607 shares at 263.750SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 54/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last...

Comfortingly undramatic

In-line Q1 as Auto margin recovered. Estimates unchanged; return to growth modelled for Q4. Adds some support even after partial cyclical re-rating. HOLD.

SKF (Hold, TP: SEK250.00) - Margins going in the right direction

Disregarding some unclarity on fixed-cost under-absorption during the conference call, we view SKF’s Q1 report as solid, especially the better-than-expected adj. EBIT margin, supporting the longer-term margin story. However, cash flow was on the soft side and we struggle to bridge the 2024 guidance, which could become a more prominent risk later in the year. We have raised our 2024–2026e adj. EBIT by 3% and target price to SEK250 (240), and reiterate our HOLD.

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 04/26/2024

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ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 26/04/2024

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SKF : A resilient margin despite a marked decline in sales in Q1

>Q1 2024: sales down 7% organic, adjusted EBIT margin up 30bp - This morning, SKF published Q1 2024 results that came in a shade below forecasts on sales but beat expectations on the EBIT margin.Sales were SEK 24.7bn (consensus at SEK 24.8bn), an organic decline of -7% (consensus at -6.5%). This decline resulted in negative volumes at both divisions, with a -7.3% decline in sales for Industrial and -6.2% in Automotive. As expected, the group indicates a marked sl...

SKF : Une marge résiliente malgré la forte baisse du chiffre d’affaire...

>T1 2024 : CA en recul organique de 7%, marge d’EBIT ajusté en hausse de 30 pb - SKF a publié ce matin des résultats T1 2024 légèrement inférieurs aux attentes au niveau du chiffre d’affaires mais supérieurs sur la marge d’EBIT.Le CA atteint 24.7 MdSEK (consensus à 24.8 MdSEK), en recul organique de 7% (consensus à -6.5%). Ce recul embarque des volumes négatifs dans les deux divisions avec un recul du CA de 7.3% pour Industrial et de 6.2% pour Automotive. Comme a...

Decent margin despite lower auto volume

Essity (Buy, TP: SEK330.00) - Financial targets up next

The solid Q1 results were aided by the ongoing gross margin recovery, YOY and QOQ. We expect investor focus from here to be on whether Essity can offset rising raw material costs through agility and pricing power. We see new financial targets and capital allocations as the next potential share-price catalysts; we reiterate our BUY and have edged up our target price to SEK330 (325).

Pulp fiction in Q1, reality for Q2

Essity (Buy, TP: SEK325.00) - Good Q2, but no buybacks

We consider this a positive report for Essity, with Q1 adj. EBITA 10% above consensus, mainly driven by a strong gross margin. That said, no financial targets or buybacks following the Vinda transaction were announced, and we expect any conference call comments to be in focus. We expect consensus 2024e adj. EBITA to come up c2% on the results and expect a positive share price reaction.

SKF (Hold, TP: SEK240.00) - Views on Q1 and guidance

We are 3% below consensus on Q1e adj. EBIT, and expect a reiterated 2024 guidance for a low single-digit YOY organic sales decline and Q2 guidance to be issued for a mid-single digit YOY organic sales decline. We have made minor estimate revisions and are 6–7% below consensus on 2024–2026e adj. EBIT. We reiterate our HOLD and have raised our target price to SEK240 (225).

Essity (Buy, TP: SEK325.00) - Capital distribution in focus

We expect Essity’s sequentially higher raw materials costs to be offset by lower energy costs and improved underlying volumes, leaving us largely in line with consensus for Q1. We expect focus to be on capital distributions following the Vinda divestment and Essity’s new financial targets. We reiterate our BUY and SEK325 target price as we continue to find the valuation attractive.

Retail Sector Report - ReTales Q4 2023

Retail Sector Report - ReTales Q4 2023

Retail Sector Report - ReTales Q4 2023

Retail Sector Report - ReTales Q4 2023

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 01/02/2024

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ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 02/01/2024

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SKF : We see the 2024 guidance as ambitious

>Q4 2023: 8% ahead of expectations at the EBIT level, thanks to industrial division - Yesterday morning SKF reported Q4 2023 results that beat expectations with an organic decline of -1.9% (vs consensus -2.9%) and an operating EBIT margin up +200bp to 12% (vs consensus 10.9%). Volumes were down significantly by close to -7% by our estimates, while the price effect was still positive (just below 5% according to management comments). The Industrial division posted ...

SKF : La guidance 2024 nous semble ambitieuse

>T4 2023 : 8% au-dessus des attentes au niveau de l’EBIT, grâce à Industrial - SKF a publié hier matin des résultats T4 2023 supérieurs aux attentes avec un recul organique de 1.9% (vs css à -2.9%) et une marge d’EBIT opérationnel de 12% en hausse de 200 pb (vs css à 10.9%). Les volumes sont en recul significatif, à près de 7% selon nous, avec un effet prix toujours positif (légèrement inférieur à 5% d’après les commentaires du management). La division Industrial...

SKF (Hold, TP: SEK225.00) - Currency conundrum

The Q4 report included Q1 and 2024 organic growth guidance in line with consensus, while a key highlight was the strong Industrial margin, where efforts to prune the portfolio started to take effect. FX had a surprisingly negative effect on sales growth, and the company made a SEK338m adjustment to EBIT for hyperinflation accounting in Argentina, which we estimate will result in EBIT being overstated by 2–3% in 2024. We reiterate our HOLD, but have raised our target price to SEK225 (220), having...