Nobia AB: 1 director

A director at Nobia AB bought 50,000 shares at 7.330SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 65/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly showi...

Nobia (Hold, TP: SEK8.00) - Ripping the band-aid

While the announcement of a SEK1,250m preferential rights issue overshadowed a weak Q4, we have lowered our 2024e adj. EBIT by 59% owing to a softer market outlook for the year and the divestment of ewe. We believe the shares will be under pressure until 20 March, when the final terms of the rights issue are announced. We reiterate our HOLD but have cut our target price to SEK8 (11).

Nobia (Hold, TP: SEK11.00) - All about deleverage

We have cut our 2024–2025e adj. EBIT by 32–21%, as we expect a tougher project market (mainly in the Nordics) and the divestment of the Bribus brand. The company has taken clear actions to reduce leverage with the sale and leaseback and the sale of Bribus, which will take some pressure off the balance sheet. We reiterate our HOLD but have raised our target price to SEK11 (9.5) on valuation.

Nobia (Hold, TP: SEK9.50) - Closer to a sale-and-leaseback

We have lowered our 2023e adj. EBIT by 2%, mainly on a lower margin assumption for the UK. For 2024–2025e, we have reduced our adj. EBIT by 3%, also on lower margin assumptions. The company seems closer to reaching a sale-and-leaseback agreement (although the timing is still uncertain), which would ease some pressure on the balance sheet. We reiterate our HOLD, but have increased our target price to SEK9.5 (8.5).

Nobia (Hold, TP: SEK8.50) - Financial position still uncertain

We have reduced our 2023e EBIT by 17% on our lower margin assumptions for the UK. For 2024–2025e, our sales are roughly unchanged, but we have decreased our adj. EBIT by 15–7%, mainly on our lower margin assumptions for the UK and the Nordics. With no closing of the sale-and-leaseback of the Jönköping factory announced yet, we still see its financial position as uncertain. While the stock is valued at historically low levels, we reiterate our HOLD but have cut our target price to SEK8.5 (12).

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Nobia (Hold, TP: SEK12.00) - Too many uncertainties

We have downgraded Nobia to HOLD (BUY), as we are increasingly concerned about the company’s leverage. We also find the near-term earnings risk higher following the Q2 report, and cut our 2023e adj. EBIT by 25% and our 2024–2025e by 13%. We have lowered our target price to SEK12 (24).

Nobia (Hold, TP: SEK12.00) - Too many uncertainties

We have downgraded Nobia to HOLD (BUY), as we are increasingly concerned about the company’s leverage. We also find the near-term earnings risk higher following the Q2 report, and cut our 2023e adj. EBIT by 33% and our 2024–2025e by 24–13%. We have lowered our target price to SEK12 (24).

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Nobia (Buy, TP: SEK24.00) - Set for volume decline in Q2

We have cut our 2023e adj. EBIT by 9% ahead of the Q2 results, as we have lowered our organic sales estimate on a weaker outlook, primarily for the project business. We believe the cost-reduction programmes are running according to plan, but that this will likely be overshadowed by lower volumes YOY in Q2. We continue to find the stock undervalued and reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to SEK24 (26).

Nobia (Buy, TP: SEK26.00) - No need to kitchen-sink

While Q1 adj. EBIT was c22% below consensus, it was c7% above our estimate (on a low base). However, we have lowered our adj. EBIT by 2% for 2023e, mainly on a slightly lower organic growth assumption for the Nordic division and FX changes. At the same time, we continue to believe that savings gradually will be realised throughout the year and, thus, benefit margins. We reiterate our BUY but have trimmed our target price to SEK26 (27).

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Nobia (Buy, TP: SEK27.00) - Back on the menu

We see upside potential to consensus 2023–2024 adj. EBIT on cost savings and increased efficiency as production at the new Jönköping factory ramps up. We believe the risk of a rights issue is low, and find macro-economic headwinds more than reflected in the valuation. We have raised our 2023–2024e adj. EBIT by 5–3%, increased our target price to SEK27 (20) and upgraded to BUY (HOLD).

Nobia (Hold, TP: SEK20.00) - Low risk of rights issue

Nobia’s Q4 results were in line with the profit warning, and we have left our 2023e group adj. EBIT roughly unchanged. The board proposed no dividend for 2022, in line with our estimate, but we do not see the company as in need of a rights issue. We reiterate our HOLD but have raised our target price to SEK20 (19).

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Nobia (Hold, TP: SEK24.00) - Lack of positive near-term catalysts

We see multiple headwinds with few potential positive catalysts for Nobia near-term. While we have left our 2022e sales roughly unchanged, we have lowered our adj. EBIT by c1% as we expect supply-chain issues in the Nordics to have continued for Q4. For 2023e, we have lowered our adj. EBIT by c6% on a more negative view on the UK as well as continued supply-chain issues. We reiterate our HOLD but have increased our target price to SEK24 (19) on valuation.

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Nobia (Hold, TP: SEK19.00) - Q3 in line with profit warning

Nobia reported Q3 sales and EBIT roughly in line with its profit warning. We have made minor changes to our 2022e and 2023e sales and EBIT, but have lowered our 2024e by 4% and 20% as we believe a weaker construction market in the Nordics will hurt Nobia’s project business. Management expects demand to soften, but we believe this is reflected in consensus. We reiterate our HOLD and SEK19 target price.

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