Miss Q4 due to financials, reiterate 2027 guidance

PTP -8-10% from softer financials anb just soft UW and premiums;Reiterate 2027 guidance, 2025 premium growth from private/SMEs; Stock -1-2% today, cons.est.rev. minor; softer read-x into GJF

Energy Morning - 21 January 2025

Wide peer valuation range on market recovery expectations

Various waves of expectations for a recovery in newbuild markets have led to volatility in the sector, but an upwards share-price trend overall. Although we still await proof the new-volume market (both residential and commercial) is recovering, consensus is fuelled by falling rates. However, trailing profits under IFRS valuations are record-wide. We maintain a neutral sector view and stock-picking approach.

Nordic banks Q4'24: All eyes on NII & DPS

Q4e: NII could approach its peak

Valmet (Buy, TP: EUR32.00) - Eyes on orders and outlook

We expect Q4 orders and clean EBITA to grow YOY. Our order estimates are c1% below post-Q4 consensus, while our clean EBITA is in line. We reiterate our BUY and EUR32 target price, with minor (average

Growth uncertainty as inflation tapers off

ARPU growth set to come down

Sentiment to improve in 2025e

Repricing set to support profitability

The outlook for strong growth momentum in the Nordic P&C sector remains, with the recent rounds of premium repricing yet to take full effect. Furthermore, underwriting profitability is still a key focus, illustrated by Tryg raising its long-term combined ratio target to ~81% at the 2024 CMD. We believe signs of slowing claims inflation, albeit from high levels, together with mostly normal weather, bode well for Q4 underwriting. We have three BUYs and one HOLD, and highlight Sampo as our top sect...

Nordic non-life Q4 preview: positive R/R in GJF

Good underwriting hit by financials

Konecranes (Buy, TP: EUR75.00) - Much of the same into 2025e

We have raised our 2024–2026e clean EPS by c1% on average and reiterate our BUY and EUR75 target price. Our Q4e orders are a bit above consensus, but 2025e orders and clean EBITA are close.

Nordic banks – Statistical update - Finnish lending November 2024

Nordic banks – Statistical update - Danish lending November 2024

Jm Ab (Hold, TP: SEK170.00) - The long way back begins

While newbuild sales should continue to recover in 2025 on lower interest rates (SEK), lead times are long, and EPS is unlikely to reach pre-2022 levels in our forecast period. However, we expect Q4 housing sales and starts (KPIs) and EPS to be above consensus. Moreover, as we believe newbuild sales have passed the trough and the share price has fallen the last 6 months, we have upgraded to HOLD (SELL) and raised our target price to SEK170 (155).

Nordic banks – statistical update – Swedish bankruptcies December 2024

Telenor ASA: 1 director

A director at Telenor ASA bought 4,000 shares at 128.200NOK and the significance rating of the trade was 69/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly s...

Nordic banks – Statistical update - Swedish lending November 2024