We reiterate our HOLD recommendation, while we have cut our target price to NOK46 (down from NOK65). When the stock market has no visibility on next quarter’s earnings, we argue a mid-cycle valuation (USD680m EBITDA for Ocean) is premature. We fear civil antitrust claims would result in lower freight rates.
We reiterate our HOLD recommendation and NOK65 target price and we see unfavourable risk/reward ahead of Q1 with our net profit forecast being 30% below consensus. Caterpillar reported strong mining sales, but there are other headwinds, which consensus does not fully reflect, in our view.
Takeaways from DNB Markets’ 11th Oil, Offshore and Shipping conference following panel debates in Tankers, Dry bulk, LNG and LPG. Scrapping is viewed as important for freight improvements, but like “putting down the family dogâ€. We are either at the bottom or early recovery, according to the panellists.
President Trump tweeted on 3 March about a potential “tax on European cars which freely pour into the USâ€. If this were to happen, we believe it would be a significant negative for Wallenius Wilhelmsen Logistics (WWL), as the company’s shipments from the EU to North America account for 18% of its volumes. We downgraded WWL to HOLD on 19 February, after its Q4 results, believing that the “risks are skewed towards the downsideâ€.
After five years with a BUY recommendation, we have downgraded to HOLD and lowered our target price to NOK65 (NOK67), as we believe the potential risks are skewed towards the downside and we are 12% below Bloomberg consensus 2018–2019 EBITDA. Consensus implies broadly flat EBITDA QOQ for Q1 2018, which we find unlikely.
We reiterate our view from our Q2 update that multiples expansion is what would continue to drive the stock higher as earnings growth could take time to build. Our main take from the CMD is that WWL would like to grow in Landbased, but the board has yet to decide where and how to invest. Higher investment in Landbased would make us believe that dividends could end up at the lower end of the range. The auto segment was not mentioned in much detail, apart from illustrating the numerous uncertainti...
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