Sector Update | Banking We downgrade the Indonesian banking sector to MARKET WEIGHT as rising sovereign risk premiums and fiscal uncertainty increase macro volatility and cap near-term sector re-rating. While the direct earnings impact from higher bond yields remains limited, second-order risk, rupiah pressure and a shorter BI easing cycle, could weigh on NIM, credit growth, and asset quality. Kopdes loans introduce structural NIM pressure, with BBNI most exposed. Valuations stand at 1.67x P/B, ...
Sector Update | Banking We downgrade the Indonesian banking sector to MARKET WEIGHT as rising sovereign risk premiums and fiscal uncertainty increase macro volatility and cap near-term sector re-rating. While the direct earnings impact from higher bond yields remains limited, second-order risk, rupiah pressure and a shorter BI easing cycle, could weigh on NIM, credit growth, and asset quality. Kopdes loans introduce structural NIM pressure, with BBNI most exposed. Valuations stand at 1.67x P/B, ...
Greater China Sector Update | Automobile China's humanoid robotics sector is accelerating, with 2025 global shipments up 508%. Key players anticipate significant revenue contributions by 2031: CATL expects 3-7% from batteries; Minth and LeaderDrive project 5-12% and 45-65% respectively; Tuopu forecasts 15-25% from motion systems; and RoboSense targets 40-60% from LiDAR. We maintain a MARKET WEIGHT rating on the sector. Top BUY recommendations include CATL, Ganfeng Lithium, Minth (target price ra...
Company Results | Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ/BUY/Rp3,950/Target: Rp4,250) BBRI posted 4Q25 net profit of Rp15.9t (+9.5% qoq), bringing 2025 profit to Rp56.7t (-5.5% yoy), broadly in line with expectations. Structural funding improvement lifted CASA ratio to 70.6%, compressing CoF to 2.9%, and helped to maintain consolidated NIM at 7.8%, supported by Pegadaian’s high-margin contribution. Asset quality remains the key overhang, particularly from the 2023 Kupedes batch, but improving LaR and ne...
Company Results | Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ/BUY/Rp3,950/Target: Rp4,250) BBRI posted 4Q25 net profit of Rp15.9t (+9.5% qoq), bringing 2025 profit to Rp56.7t (-5.5% yoy), broadly in line with expectations. Structural funding improvement lifted CASA ratio to 70.6%, compressing CoF to 2.9%, and helped to maintain consolidated NIM at 7.8%, supported by Pegadaian’s high-margin contribution. Asset quality remains the key overhang, particularly from the 2023 Kupedes batch, but improving LaR and ne...
Moody's Ratings (Moody's) has today changed the outlooks on five Indonesian banks to negative from stable, following the affirmation of the Government of Indonesia's Baa2 issuer rating and change in outlook to negative from stable on 5 February 2026. The five banks include Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk...
A director at Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT bought 98,000 shares at 3,640.000IDR and the significance rating of the trade was 51/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors ove...
Strategy | Alpha Picks: From MSCI Shock To Policy-Driven Rebalancing Our portfolio outperformed the JCI by 10.2%. January volatility hit the JCI after MSCI flagged free float transparency and investability risks, reversing record highs into foreign-led sell-offs and a late-month correction. In response, regulators are shifting from short-term stabilisation toward structural repair, with greater emphasis on transparency and investability. The strategy pivots towards liquid and dividend-paying blu...
Greater China Sector Update | China Property CRIC data show that the top 100 developers’ contracted sales fell 24.7% yoy in Jan 26, while new-home sales in 28 major cities declined 36% yoy. Second-hand transactions in three Tier 1 cities rose 1% yoy. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT but deepening industry downturn leads to rising possibility of policy support, supporting selective exposure. CR Land remains our top pick, with P/B at 1SD below the five-year mean, and PE and yield near the five-year average....
Economics | Indonesia Headline Inflation Rises On Low-base Effect, Core Inflation Remains Stable Indonesia's headline inflation rose to 3.55% yoy in Jan 26, primarily driven by temporary base effects from last year's low electricity tariffs and high global gold prices. However, core inflation remained stable at 2.45%, and prices fell mom due to a strong food harvest. This indicates underlying demand pressures are still contained. Consequently, Bank Indonesia is expected to maintain its benchmark...
Strategy | Positive Sentiment On LQ45 Following MSCI’s freeze on index inclusions and deletions, the government plans to raise equity investment limits for pension funds and insurance companies from 8% to 20%, broadly in line with OECD practices. Investment allocation is expected to focus on LQ45 constituents. For context, the LQ45 index has underperformed the JCI by approximately 16.0% over the past year. Highlights • JCI declined by -7.2% over the past three trading days after the freeze on ...
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