Moody's Ratings (Moody's) has today changed the outlooks on five Indonesian banks to negative from stable, following the affirmation of the Government of Indonesia's Baa2 issuer rating and change in outlook to negative from stable on 5 February 2026. The five banks include Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk...
A director at Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT bought 98,000 shares at 3,640.000IDR and the significance rating of the trade was 51/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors ove...
Strategy | Alpha Picks: From MSCI Shock To Policy-Driven Rebalancing Our portfolio outperformed the JCI by 10.2%. January volatility hit the JCI after MSCI flagged free float transparency and investability risks, reversing record highs into foreign-led sell-offs and a late-month correction. In response, regulators are shifting from short-term stabilisation toward structural repair, with greater emphasis on transparency and investability. The strategy pivots towards liquid and dividend-paying blu...
Greater China Sector Update | China Property CRIC data show that the top 100 developers’ contracted sales fell 24.7% yoy in Jan 26, while new-home sales in 28 major cities declined 36% yoy. Second-hand transactions in three Tier 1 cities rose 1% yoy. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT but deepening industry downturn leads to rising possibility of policy support, supporting selective exposure. CR Land remains our top pick, with P/B at 1SD below the five-year mean, and PE and yield near the five-year average....
Economics | Indonesia Headline Inflation Rises On Low-base Effect, Core Inflation Remains Stable Indonesia's headline inflation rose to 3.55% yoy in Jan 26, primarily driven by temporary base effects from last year's low electricity tariffs and high global gold prices. However, core inflation remained stable at 2.45%, and prices fell mom due to a strong food harvest. This indicates underlying demand pressures are still contained. Consequently, Bank Indonesia is expected to maintain its benchmark...
Strategy | Positive Sentiment On LQ45 Following MSCI’s freeze on index inclusions and deletions, the government plans to raise equity investment limits for pension funds and insurance companies from 8% to 20%, broadly in line with OECD practices. Investment allocation is expected to focus on LQ45 constituents. For context, the LQ45 index has underperformed the JCI by approximately 16.0% over the past year. Highlights • JCI declined by -7.2% over the past three trading days after the freeze on ...
Greater China Economics | PMI January PMI was below Bloomberg’s consensus, as the manufacturing PMI dipped to 49.2 (-0.9pt mom). The manufacturing output sub-index stayed marginally expansionary, while the new orders and new export orders sub-indices weakened. The purchase prices sub-index surged, pointing to higher cost pressure for manufacturers. The non-manufacturing PMI also fell to 49.4 (-0.8pt mom), mainly driven by a sharp contraction in the construction industry index. Large enterpri...
Strategy | Positive Sentiment On LQ45 Following MSCI’s freeze on index inclusions and deletions, the government plans to raise equity investment limits for pension funds and insurance companies from 8% to 20%, broadly in line with OECD practices. Investment allocation is expected to focus on LQ45 constituents. For context, the LQ45 index has underperformed the JCI by approximately 16.0% over the past year. Company Results | Darma Henwa (DEWA IJ/BUY/Rp540/Target: Rp1,500) DEWA delivered in-line ...
Sector Update | Banking 11M25 results confirm that FY25 earnings are broadly in line, but the sector’s earnings framework has shifted. All major banks saw declines in NIMs and asset yields and moderating core profitability, reflecting a broader normalisation in earnings drivers. As liquidity conditions improve, the sector moves into 2026 with earnings more dependent on loan growth delivery, funding mix optimisation, and operating execution. Highlights • 11M25 broadly in line; but earnings compo...
Sector Update | Banking 11M25 results confirm that FY25 earnings are broadly in line, but the sector’s earnings framework has shifted. All major banks saw declines in NIMs and asset yields and moderating core profitability, reflecting a broader normalisation in earnings drivers. As liquidity conditions improve, the sector moves into 2026 with earnings more dependent on loan growth delivery, funding mix optimisation, and operating execution. Technical Analysis AKR Corporindo | AKRA IJ Trading Bu...
Sector Update | Banking Indonesia’s banking sector enters 2026 in a normalisation phase, with liquidity improving and funding costs easing, leaving system liquidity more manageable. Achieving BI’s 8-12% loan growth target hinges on a broader corporate and MSME recovery. Meanwhile, with NIM expected to be stable to mildly softer and credit costs near structural floors for some banks, the key differentiator shifts to deployable liquidity and credit-cost resilience across banks. Valuations remain r...
Sector Update | Banking Indonesia’s banking sector enters 2026 in a normalisation phase, with liquidity improving and funding costs easing, leaving system liquidity more manageable. Achieving BI’s 8-12% loan growth target hinges on a broader corporate and MSME recovery. Meanwhile, with NIM expected to be stable to mildly softer and credit costs near structural floors for some banks, the key differentiator shifts to deployable liquidity and credit-cost resilience across banks. Valuations remain r...
Sector Update | Banking The Sumatra floods have caused severe local disruptions and exacted a tragic humanitarian toll, resulting in a GDP drag of 0.1% in 4Q25. Banking-system exposure is modest at 5% of loans, with near-term pressure concentrated in micro and SME borrowers. Provisioning may rise slightly in 1Q26 but remains manageable given strong sector buffers. Exposure varies across banks, with BRIS and BBRI being the most affected. Despite short-term noise, the event does not alter the sect...
Economics | Directive Approach, Structural Limits: Assessing Indonesia's New Forex Proceed Rules Indonesia's 2026 revision of its export proceeds (DHE) rules mandates that all export earnings be placed exclusively in state-owned banks, while cutting the rupiah conversion limit to 50%. This state-directed strategy aims to mechanically boost forex reserves and stabilise the onshore currency market. However, it risks distorting the banking sector, creating liabilities for state banks and squeezing ...
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: December Conviction Calls Market consolidation slowed in November as expectations of a 25bp Fed cut buoyed sentiment. The HSI and MSCI China fell 0.2% and 2.4% mom respectively amid weak data and limited catalysts. While the upcoming Economic Work Conference may offer a catalyst to end this phase, we remain cautious, preferring defensives and oversold names. We add BeOne Medicines, HKEX, NetEase and Plover Bay to BUY, take profit on AIA, and cut losses on Ja...
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: November Conviction Calls HSI and MSCI China fell 3.5%/4.0% mom in October, dragged by renewed US-China trade tensions and lack of fresh policy signals from the 4th Plenum. We remain constructive in the medium term but expect further consolidation as uncertainties persist. The best performer among our picks was SELL-rated Li Auto (+21.4% mom). For November, we rotate into oversold names with near-term upside: add AIA, LINK REIT, NAURA, Pinduoduo, PICC P&C an...
Greater China Company Results | ASMPT (522 HK/BUY/HK$83.85/Target: HK$104.00) ASMPT’s 3Q25 print missed expectations on a weaker product mix and one-off restructuring costs. Revenue was largely in line with the mid-point of its guidance, but gross margin was below expectations at 35.7% due to changes in product mix and inventory write-off from the restructuring. Nevertheless, ASMPT reported solid progress with TCB in both HBM4 and advanced logic C2W/C2S, while its mainstream tools continued to r...
Company Results | Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ/BUY/Rp3,930/Target: Rp4,250) BBRI posted a 15.1% qoq rise in 3Q25 net profit to Rp15.4t on lower provisions and stronger non-interest income, with 9M25 earnings in line at 74% of our forecast. Loan growth re-accelerated to 6.3% yoy, supported by consumer and corporate lending, while micro remained subdued but is guided to recover starting from 2026. Asset quality pressures have peaked, with write-offs and restructuring trending down and CASA risin...
Company Results | Archi Indonesia (ARCI IJ/BUY/Rp1,185 /Target: Rp2,050) ARCI booked US$36m net profit in 3Q25 (+44.8% qoq), driven by higher gold ASP (US$3,508/oz; +46% yoy) and production (37,000 oz; +27.6% yoy), bringing 9M25 profit to US$70m, in line with estimates. Maintain BUY, with a target price of Rp2,050, as we expect sustained high ASP and upside from reserve upgrades and the Kopra underground project. Company Results | Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ/BUY/Rp3,930/Target: Rp4,250) BBRI...
Strategy | JCI Down on MSCI’s Proposed Inclusion Methodology The JCI fell 1.87% after MSCI proposed changes to free float calculation, triggering selling of large caps, especially conglomerate-theme stocks. The proposal implies higher free float thresholds for most MSCI EM Indonesian stocks, raising exclusion risks for some constituents. The methodology remains under consultation, with outcomes dependent on feedback and MSCI's final review by 31 Dec 25. Re-iterate our preference for big-cap lagg...
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