We forecast Q1 organic sales growth of just 0.6% YOY, below the full-year guidance, owing to persistent headwinds in wholesale. However, with Managed Care headwinds set to annualise from Q2, better quarters should lie ahead. We expect an unchanged 2025 guidance of 3–7% organic sales growth and DKK4.5bn–4.9bn in EBIT, but we find the lower end most likely. We reiterate our BUY but have cut our target price to DKK300 (320).
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Although Q4 earnings were weaker than we expected, operating expenses were higher (partly due to borderline one-off costs; R&D-related for an EMA facility inspection). We have lowered our sales forecasts for Pepaxti in Europe. However, we believe 2025 will be important for the company, as sales should start to ramp up in Italy and Spain. We reiterate our BUY, but have reduced our target price to SEK2.0 (2.5).
Demant ended the year at the low end of its guidance, with H2 organic growth of c2% YOY and EBIT before special items of DKK2,336m. While we see scope for a recovery in 2025, we forecast it to be back-end loaded, supported by easing headwinds related to Managed Care from Q2e. The 2025 guidance is for 3–7% organic sales growth and EBIT of DKK4.5bn–4.9bn. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to DKK320 (330).
We forecast 2.2% organic revenue growth YOY in Q4 (consensus 2.3%) and H2 EBIT before special items of DKK2,312m (consensus DKK2,310m), implying 2024 earnings at the lower end of the guidance. We expect Demant to guide for 3–7% organic revenue growth and EBIT of DKK4.6bn–5.0bn for 2025, with easing headwinds (Managed Care and competitive pressure). We reiterate our BUY and DKK330 target price.
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