A director at Energoprojekt Holding A.D. Beograd bought 7,254 shares at 371.000RSD and the significance rating of the trade was 52/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the l...
We are discontinuing our coverage of the stocks listed below, with immediate effect. We caution against using the forecasts, ratings and price target guidance issued previously on these stocks. Atlantic Grupa DO&CO DP Eurasia Energa Medicalgorithmics MLP Care NIS Nostrum Oil & Gas Podravka SIF 1 Banat-Crisana SIF 2 Moldova SIF 3 Transilvania SIF 4 Muntenia SIF 5 Oltenia Sphera Stock Spirits
Averages often hide important details and in November, a lower average TTF price, albeit at EUR 83.2/MWh, obscured the fact that prices rose throughout the month. The wind was helpfully above average: in contrast, temperatures were below average, which is decidedly unhelpful. Gas inventories have been trending downwards, as is usual for the season, but are 20% below last year. On the supply side, higher volumes from LNG were more than offset by lower Russian volumes, leaving the market even tigh...
We may well look back on October as the month when the European gas market finally settled down. Although more price records were broken, TTF prices were lower at the end of the month than at the beginning, despite average prices rising to EUR 90.8/MWh. Lower Russian volumes, and the rhetoric that accompanied them, led to further nervous moments. However windy weather conditions, price-driven demand reductions, and hints of positive news from LNG and North Africa were enough to calm fraught nerv...
September 2021 will go down as the month when we ran out of words to describe the gas market. The TTF gas prices averaged EUR 65.6/MWh, but the end of month price was an eye-watering EUR 84.75/MWh. Just one year ago, the price was 1/8th of this level. We believe that we are watching a short squeeze, in the sense that traders are short of gas for the winter season and scrambling to build inventories. Even significant shutdowns of industrial production have failed to cool the market. Inventories a...
Price records continued to be broken in August, with the average for the month reaching EUR 44.1/MWh, almost 5x the price in August 2020. Once again, Russian supplies were below their usual level and LNG slumped to volumes not seen since 2018. Norwegian supplies were one bright spot, but were insufficient to make a real difference. We are starting to see demand destruction, however, with lower consumption by the power sector, which could temper prices a little in coming months. Inventories are 7...
Once again, July saw record-high gas prices, with the average for the month reaching EUR 36.1/MWh – a level not seen in winter, let alone summer. Russian pipeline supplies and overall LNG imports are lower than we expected, given these high prices, but North African and Norwegian supplies are healthy. Inventories are 7% below the average levels for the month, similar to the previous month, so the prices are not triggering big inflows. Demand is recovering and CO2 costs have boosted demand in the...
In 2021 ytd, European spot gas prices have risen into the summer season, in contrast with the usual seasonality, reaching EUR 29.3/MWh, on average, for June. Gas supplies appear to be a little constrained, in our view, with Russian volumes 16% below their 2019 level in June, the continuation of a trend. Although North African volumes remain strong, LNG supplies have been 5% lower than last year, as demand elsewhere has diverted cargos. Demand continues to be strong, especially in the power segme...
European gas prices continued to rise in May, confounding the normal seasonal expectations and reaching levels not seen since autumn 2018. Gas supplies were not constrained, with Russian and North African volumes higher, although LNG was a little lower than last year. As the cold weather disappears, the demand from the power segment remains strong, boosted by CO2 costs. However, we see stronger LNG supply dynamics this summer mitigating some of the positives.
EME Equity Market – May 2021 Market performance – Polish equities continued to outperform in May. The MSCI EM Europe Index gained 6.9% in EUR terms and 8.7% in USD terms; while the WIG20 continued with its strong performance from April, advancing 11.4% in EUR terms and 9.6% in PLN terms. The BUX Index, the Hungarian benchmark and the worst performer in April, gained 11.4% in EUR terms and 7.4% in HUF terms in May. Prague’s PX index grew 7.5% in EUR terms and 5.7% in CZK terms; followed by the Ru...
HEADLINES: • TCS Group Holding: 1Q21 highlights • Polish utilities: strong 1Q21 preliminary numbers • Graphisoft Park: 1Q21 - small beat on FFO, guidance maintained, occupancy stable at 94% • NLB Group: 1Q21 net profit above forecasts, due to provision releases • Magyar Telekom: 1Q21 results - strong, as expected, with 8% yoy EBITDA growth NEUTRAL • NIS: 1Q21 results review - weaker volumes than expected, but very strong margins NEUTRAL • Sarantis: 1Q21 trading update • CEZ: takeaways from...
European gas prices actually rose marginally in April, despite the ample supply, suggesting to us that demand has been strong. LNG supplies have rebounded after a weak start to the year and Russian supplies are marginally higher. Inventories are very slightly below their seasonal average, for the first time since 2018. Although not overly bullish, lower inventories do limit the risk of big price declines, like we saw in 2020, in our view. The demand for gas is strong, in general, but also in the...
Gas prices remained high during March, as strong demand globally made it a sellers’ market. The blockage of the Suez Canal could have been a factor at the end of the month, when a number of LNG cargoes were held up. The biggest story of 2021 so far has been inventories, with March inventory levels just 3% above the average for the month. However, supplies were bountiful, with LNG volumes back up to seasonal norms, Russian volumes up marginally and North Africa back to business as usual. Gas dema...
EME Equity Market – February 2021 Market performance – MSCI EM Europe Index rebounds slightly from its January decline, up 1.7% in EUR terms and 1.3% in local currencies. The best performing index was the Greek ASE, advancing 5.7%, followed by the Russian MOEX, which gained 4.1% in EUR terms and 2.1% in the local RUB. The PX Index, the Czech benchmark, was up 3.4% in EUR terms and 4% in the local currency. The Hungarian BUX declined 0.8% in EUR terms, but grew 0.6% in HUF terms. Romania’s BET In...
Gas prices eased off of their January highs, averaging at EUR 17.4/MWh in February. Although a spell of cold weather contributed to demand during the month, LNG supply returned and inventories were consumed, ensuring sufficient supply. Inventories were down 30% vs. the previous month, just 8% above the average for the month, setting up the market for a better balance this year. Russian supply figures were not available this month, but LNG volumes and North African supplies increased vs. January....
In January 2021, gas prices reached their highest level since January 2019, with TTF averaging EUR 20.5/MWh, as demand in Asia continued to divert LNG supplies away from Europe. With high seasonal demand, inventories in Europe fell by 21% in January, to average 697 TWh, 22% below the level reached in 2020, although 15% above the average for the month. Consumption in October was marginally above the 2019 levels, but there was a big drop in the demand from power generation, due probably to the loc...
Gas prices rose again in December, with the TTF averaging EUR 16.2/MWh, as demand in Asia diverted LNG supplies away from Europe. Inventories in Europe fell by 12% in December, to average 902 TWh, 10% below the level reached in 2019, another step toward normalisation. The weather in December was mild, but colder than usual at the very end of the month. Overall consumption recovered in 3Q to equal 2019, and demand from the power sector was just 1.3% lower than in 2019. LNG supplies are still down...
Gas prices hit a plateau in November, with TTF averaging EUR 13.7/MWh, 2% lower than the previous month. Inventories are, once again, marginally below their 2019 levels, suggesting a slow improvement in market conditions, but this supports our view that the price recovery cannot continue, unless there is a major increase in demand. Overall demand rebounded during the summer, but remains below 2019 levels, while demand from the power sector is now running at levels above those in 2019. The weathe...
HEADLINES: • Cyfrowy Polsat: network monetisation ahead (upgraded to BUY) • ING BSK: wins it all with 3Q20 delivery POSITIVE • Bank Pekao: delivers solid set of 3Q20 results POSITIVE • Komercni Banka: 3Q20 - some miss, but 2025E strategy outlook very bullish NEUTRAL • Turk Telekom: 3Q20 results - 8% NI beat, guidance upgraded POSITIVE • Coca-Cola Icecek: 3Q20 results - double-digit beat on EBITDA, due to tight cost control POSITIVE • Magyar Telekom: decent 3Q20 results, as expected, with 2% yoy...
October saw the continuation of the recovery in European gas prices, with TTF averaging EUR 14.0/MWh, well above the same month last year. We believe that we are now seeing a combination of demand recovery, as well as continued supply restraint. LNG supply is 26% below last year and almost as low as in 2018; and Russian supply is 7% below a year ago; but North African supply has finally normalised, and is 40% above the previous month. US LNG has dwindled to almost nothing. In July, the latest mo...
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