SFL Corporation Ltd: 1 director

A director at SFL Corporation Ltd sold 43,708 shares at 11.730USD and the significance rating of the trade was 85/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years cle...

Isofol Medical AB: 1 director

A director at Isofol Medical AB bought 500,000 shares at 0.610SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 53/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years cle...

LeoVegas (No_rec, TP: SEK) - Discontinuing coverage

We have discontinued coverage of LeoVegas. Our last published recommendation, target price and estimates should no longer be relied upon.

Northern Lights

LeoVegas (Hold, TP: SEK61.00) - Finally made the big time

Following MGM’s SEK6bn bid for LeoVegas, equivalent to a blended average 2022–2023e adj. P/E of c15x on our new estimates, we have raised our target price to SEK61 (48) and downgraded to HOLD (BUY). Considering the board recommended MGM’s bid over several other parties’ non-binding proposals and the CEO/founder’s ‘irrevocable undertakings’, we see a high likelihood for the deal to be finalised and close in H2.

LeoVegas Minor model adjustments

We have fine-tuned our 2022–2024e EPS, mainly owing to: phasing in of the geographic regions; continued strong Swedish revenue growth (we forecast 74% YOY in Q1) offset by a soft rest of Europe; and slightly lower marketing spend offset by increasing personnel costs and other opex. We do not consider these changes to be material, and we have not changed our BUY recommendation. We reiterate our SEK48 target price. The Q1 results are due at 08:00 CET on 5 May.

LeoVegas (Buy, TP: SEK48.00) - Absorbing lion’s share of expansion

We are impressed by LeoVegas’s strong revenue growth in Sweden, but expect the growth to become more tilted toward North America in the medium term. We have slightly reduced our 2022e EBITDA, but still forecast healthy c20% EBITDA growth p.a. in 2022–2023e as we expect a disciplined expansion (re-regulation in Ontario, New Jersey, and the Netherlands in the coming quarters). We have trimmed our target price to SEK48 (50) but reiterate our BUY.

LeoVegas (Buy, TP: SEK50.00) - On course for a more normal 2022

We expect soft Q4 results (due at 08:00 CET on 11 February), with fairly stable revenue but adj. EBITDA down 9% YOY, reflecting the temporary Dutch exit (awaiting a licence in 2022e) and a weak Germany. We have cut our 2022e adj. EPS by 5%, but still look for a sharp acceleration in growth in 2022. We expect the underlying business to continue to progress well, and consequently reiterate our BUY and SEK50 target price.

LeoVegas (Buy, TP: SEK50.00) - Finding its way in the regulator zoo

Looking past the near-term external headwinds (weakness in Germany and Dutch re-regulation), we believe LeoVegas is on track to return to c10% group revenue growth YOY in 2022e. The key drivers are likely to include strong progress in Sweden, southern Europe, and Canada, coupled with the upcoming US expansion. We reiterate our BUY and SEK50 target price.

LeoVegas (Buy, TP: SEK50.00) - Waiting for Sweden to lift restrictions

We have cut our 2022e EBITDA by almost 10% to reflect LeoVegas’s temporary Dutch exit and rising marketing costs. A normalising Swedish market – on prospects of an end to pandemic-related market restrictions from November – could offset the Dutch situation near-term we believe. While we have cut our target price to SEK50 (56) to reflect our new forecasts, we reiterate our BUY.

The game of Dutch re-regulation

The future of online gambling in the Netherlands and potential risks associated with the future Dutch re-regulation have been key topics in our discussions with the industry and investors in the last ten years. Stakes are high for Kindred and Betsson, reflecting leading online market positions (acquisitions in 2005 and 2014, respectively). Near-term outlooks are clouded by the Dutch authorities’ (KSA) surprising new enforcement policy, but we view increased clarity on the Dutch outlook as a long...

Acquisitions and an equity issue

SBB acquired five properties in Denmark, KMC carried out a direct placement of NOK300m, Kungsleden announced a new rental contract and development project, Wihlborgs announced a new lease, while Skanska updated its climate target. The weighted average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 3.30% for 2021e and 3.64% for 2022e.

CMD, an upgrade, and events

This week, we upgraded Fabege to BUY following its first office letting in Flemingsberg, and we shifted coverage from Klövern (delisted due to merger) to Corem, for which we have a HOLD. SBB hosted a CMD, while Atrium Ljungberg hired a new CFO. Next week, DNB Markets is set to host real estate events. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 3.30 % for 2021e and 3.59 % for 2022e.

SBB Norden (Sell, TP: SEK31.00) - Ambition – and valuation– remain hig...

SBB Norden hosted a CMD on 10 September. The company now aims for a SEK300bn asset base by 2026e and raised its target for income from property development (projects) to SEK2.0bn–2.5bn p.a. SBB also intends to propose a DPS of SEK1.32 (12 instalments p.a.) for 2022e. With an EPRA NTA (NAV) value of 23% of its balance sheet as of Q2, asset write-ups (building equity) or issuance of new equity (or hybrid bonds) seem likely to be a key factor in reaching a SEK300bn portfolio. We have rolled forward...

Two updates, and house price data

This week, we raised our target price on Castellum after it acquired more Entra shares and issued its hybrid bond. Wrapping up Q2 results season, Aros Bostad’s POC-based net income was in line with our estimate. Magnolia Bostad will be delisted on 17 September. Finally, next week we host several real estate investor events. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 3.16% for 2021e and 3.43% for 2022e.

Last of Q2 reports, and transactions

KMC Properties and Hufvudstaden reported their Q2 results. Castellum bought an additional 11.75% of the shares in Entra after issuing a EUR1bn hybrid bond earlier this week. Atrium Ljungberg CFO Lindqvist is leaving with immediate effect, while Liia Nõu was appointed the new CEO of Pandox. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 2.98% for 2021e and 3.28% for 2022e.

LeoVegas (Buy, TP: SEK56.00) - Recovery next after German crash

We have fine-tuned our 2022e EBITDA (-3%), but remain attracted to the revenue-growth prospects and healthy cash flow. Although we would like to see a bit more sales-growth payoff from the recent step-up in marketing spending, we reiterate our BUY and SEK56 target price, which reflect our expectations of a growth recovery in Q3 and a healthy outlook for 2022e.

Q2 results and other news

Kojamo was the only real estate company in the sector to report Q2 results this week. Entra refinanced a bond, but conducted a bond buyback and new bond issue. SBB Norden’s CEO Ilija Batljan bought 1m shares in the company, and a date was set for its CMD. Corem initiated a compulsory acquisition of minority shares in Klövern. Fabege announced a new land allocation in Hammarby Sjöstad. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 3.04% for 2021e and 3.13% for 2022e.