Tele2 (Buy, TP: SEK145.00) - Return to service revenue growth

Although the EBITDA beat was largely driven by lower commercial activity in Q2, Tele2 improved its service revenue growth and reported flat service revenues for Sweden. It also continued to deliver on cost savings. We reiterate our BUY but have raised our target price to SEK145 (138).

Tele2 (Buy, TP: SEK138.00) - Netherlands exit moving closer

We are in line with consensus on service revenue and 1% below on EBITDA ahead of the Q2 report, due at 07:00 CET on 14 July. We believe the next trigger for the stock could be an exit from the Netherlands. We reiterate our BUY and SEK138 target price.

Tele2 (Buy, TP: SEK138.00) - Sticking to the same story

Tele2’s CMD had limited news, but with a new CEO in place, reiterating that the remuneration story is intact could be enough to entice shareholders. With the message normal capex will go back below pre-5G levels after the 5G roll-out, IT-transformation, and remote-PHY investments are completed, we see a ‘wall-of-cash’ story developing. BUY and SEK138 target price reiterated.

Tele2 (Buy, TP: SEK138.00) - Special dividend lifts share price

Tele2 reported a solid Q1, with a 3% EBITDA beat versus consensus, but the main takeaway was the announcement of a SEK3 special dividend. We reiterate our BUY and SEK138 target price.

Tele2 (Buy, TP: SEK138.00) - Improved performance

Tele2 is due to release its Q1 report at 07:00 CET on 22 April. We are marginally above consensus on Q1e service revenue and c1% above on EBITDA. We believe that a slight service revenue improvement and a larger impact from cost savings should lift EBITDA growth close to the mid-single digits. We reiterate our BUY and SEK138 target price.

Tele2 (Buy, TP: SEK138.00) - Expectations reset for 2021

The Q4 report was okay, but Tele2’s guidance disappointed with lower EBITDA and higher capex than consensus. Given the assumed flat roaming revenues versus 2020, we see upside potential to guidance. We reiterate our BUY and SEK138 target price.

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Tele2 (Buy, TP: SEK138.00) - Soft Q4e, outlook more positive

We expect soft Q4 results (due at 07:00 CET on 2 February), in line with Q3, but see a better outlook for 2021, and reiterate our BUY but have trimmed our target price to SEK138 (142). We also see a potential catalyst in a possible exit from the Netherlands; we estimate this could free SEK16/share to be distributed to shareholders.

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Tele2 (Buy, TP: SEK142.00) - Free options

Tele2 reported a solid Q3. Aside from the phasing of capex (cutting it for 2020–2021e and raising it for 2022–2023e), we have made only minor changes to our model. We reiterate our BUY and SEK142 target price.

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Tele2 (Buy, TP: SEK142.00) - Several potential triggers ahead

The Q3 report is due on 20 October at 07:00 CET. This will be the first quarter with the new CEO, and we expect increased marketing spend, meaning EBITDA growth will likely be weaker than in Q2. We reiterate our BUY and SEK142 target price.

Time to put Brussels to work

According to the recent Telekomnyheterna article, merger discussions between Telenor and Three are advanced. It is far from certain that a 4- to 3-MNO move would be approved, particularly as it would mean reducing physical mobile networks from three to two. Nevertheless, we see many reasons why it would make sense to test this now, and that consolidation would benefit all market participants.

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Tele2 (Buy, TP: SEK142.00) - Proven cost control

Tele2 reported a solid Q2, driven primarily by tight cost control in the Swedish operation. Given that the Tele2 case is based on Tele2’s ability to reduce costs medium-term, the Q2 results were supportive with proof of tight cost control. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK142 (SEK136).

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Tele2 (Buy, TP: SEK136.00) - CEO set to bow out on a high

We expect solid Q2 results (due at 07:00 CET on 15 July), and are ~2% above consensus on EBITDA. This will be CEO Anders Nilsson’s last quarterly report with Tele2, and we good prospects for a consensus beat. We reiterate our BUY and SEK136 target price.

Tele2 (Buy, TP: SEK136.00) - Positive tones on investor call

Yesterday we hosted a conference call with Samuel Skott, CCO at Tele2. Overall we are of the impression that things are evolving according to the plans laid out in the Q1 report, or even better. We believe this should reduce Q2 and 2020 risk. This, combined with weak share performance, has led us to upgrade the stock to BUY (HOLD) with an unchanged SEK136 target price.

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