Q1 trends, estimates, valuation and top picks

The Q1 reports proved that sector companies could maintain record-high margins despite volume declines.

Nordic banks – statistical update – Swedish bankruptcies April 2024

The total number of bankruptcies was up 65% y-o-y and up 16% m-o-m in April 2024. Corporate bankruptcies were up 81% y-o-y and up 16% m-o-m in April 2024.

Good start to the year

Nordic banks – Statistical update - Norwegian lending March 2024

Total lending grew by 3.3% y-o-y (3.4% adjusted for FX effects) and 0.3% m-o-m. Last month, total lending was up 3.3% y-o-y.

Swedbank AB: 2 directors

A director at Swedbank AB bought 2,350 shares at 211.100SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 47/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly s...

Q1 first take: clean numbers a tad above

Renewable Weekly – 29 April 2024

This week, we summarise our Q1 previews for the sector.

Autoliv (Buy, TP: SEK1600.00) - In the fast lane

Despite beating guidance in Q1, Autoliv kept its 2024 guidance intact. In our view, this adds upside potential to consensus for 2024 and some credibility to the 12% medium-term EBIT margin target. Although we estimate 29% YOY growth in 2024e adj. EBIT, fundamentals are likely to be on the sidelines as we expect the company to resume its large share buyback programme in the coming weeks (the mandate has USD873m, c9% of the market cap, left for 2024). We reiterate our BUY and have raised our targe...

Nordic Banks - Statistical update - Swedish lending, March 2024

Nordic banks – Statistical update - Danish lending, February 2024

Q1'24: Better than feared - BUY

Q1'24 operating profit was largely in line with our forecast, and we have marginally revised our net earnings estimates. We keep our BUY rating and TP of SEK 253.

Swedbank (Buy, TP: SEK265.00) - Good value despite NII decline

While Q1 probably marked the start of a prolonged NII normalisation (we expect 17% lower NII in 2025 than 2023), we still see fundamental valuation upside potential at a P/BV of 1.15x, given we expect Swedbank to keep its ROE well above 12% for a prolonged period. We have made limited changes to our 2024–2026e EPS, but have cut our target price to SEK265 (276) on lower dividend forecasts. Although we have reduced confidence in the timing and scope of capital distributions, we still expect an ave...

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 04/25/2024

Having flirted with the 495-point mark on Friday, which could have triggered an extension of the correction, the market has rebounded well since then. Our technical analysis highlights a configuration in which we are only at the start of a powerful rally. Target of 622 points for Stoxx 600 index (+11%) by the end of the year confirmed. Prefer banks to insurance companies in the short term. - ...

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 25/04/2024

Après avoir frôlé vendredi la barre des 495 points qui aurait pu déclencher la poursuite de la correction, le marché a ensuite bien rebondi. Notre analyse technique met en lumière une configuration où nous ne serions qu’au début d’un rallye puissant. Objectif 622 points (+11%) d’ici à la fin de l’année confirmé sur le Stoxx 600. Préférer les banques aux assurances à court terme. - ...

Q1'24: Better than feared

KONE : Un T1 qui rassure, la guidance 2024 est précisée

>Un T1 un peu meilleur qu’attendu - KONE a publié hier matin des résultats T1 un peu meilleurs qu’attendu. Les commandes progressent de 1.6% à changes constants (css à 0.9%), grâce notamment au segment modernisation qui progresse de plus de 10%. Le chiffre d’affaires a augmenté de 2.7% à changes constants au T1 (consensus : +2.3%), avec une Chine en recul de 4.9%. En termes d’activité, les nouveaux équipements reculent (-4.2% à changes constants), les services (+9%) e...

KONE : A reassuring Q1, 2024 guidance fine-tuned

>A better-than-expected Q1 - Yesterday morning, KONE published Q1 results that were a shade better than expected. Order intake was up by 1.6% at constant currency (cons. at 0.9%), notably thanks to the modernisation segment which grew by more than 10%. Sales were up by 2.7% at constant currency in Q1 (consensus: +2.3%), with a 4.9% decline in China. In terms of activity, new equipment declined -4.2% at constant currency, while services (+9%) and modernisation (+5.3%)...

Valmet (Buy, TP: EUR30.00) - Q1 on the weak side

Following a mixed but negatively skewed overall Q1, we have lowered our 2024–2026e clean EPS by c4% on average. We reiterate our BUY and EUR30 target price.

Kone (Hold, TP: EUR46.00) - Elevator down, escalator up

We have slightly lowered our 2024–2026e clean EPS following the decent Q1 orders and earnings, and 2024 sales and clean EBIT guidance in line with our forecasts. We reiterate our HOLD and EUR46 target price.