A good start to the year

Q1 EPS 7% above, but some special elements. Backlog implies revenue estimates are robust. Strong momentum, high expectations - HOLD.

Kongsberg Gruppen (Hold, TP: NOK780.00) - Solid Maritime margin beat i...

Q1 EBITDA beat our estimate and consensus by 9%, explained by a stronger Maritime (KM) margin than expected. However, as previously guided, the Defence (KD) margin did fall to 17% in this quarter. We have edged our 2025–2026e EPS up 2% after primarily raising our KM margin assumptions, but reiterate our HOLD and NOK780 target price as we believe the stock is already pricing in a possible ramp-up of NATO defence spending to at least 2.5% of GDP for all member states.

Yara International ASA: 2 directors

Two Directors at Yara International ASA bought/maiden bought 2,337 shares at between 315.000NOK and 316.600NOK. The significance rating of the trade was 54/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the compa...

It does not add up - Down to HOLD (Buy)

Price headwinds stronger than expected. Slashing estimates for 2024-26e. ~7% ATRoCE suggests EV/CE ~1x is fair - HOLD (Buy) TP 325.

Yara (Buy, TP: NOK425.00) - Q1 disappoints the market

While the Q1 results disappointed the market, we consider a ~USD70m–120m EBITDA miss to be within a normal standard deviation and have made only minor estimate changes. Yara’s share price in dollar terms (USD29) is among its lowest since 2010, yet consensus earnings forecasts are at normalised levels. We believe this reflects investor fears it will act irrationally with its capex (NIBD/EBITDA of 2.3x does not give it the muscle to carry out the announced blue ammonia investments). While we hear ...

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 04/26/2024

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ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 26/04/2024

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Metso : Progress on margin reflected with resilience in Q1

>Q1 2024 orders in line but margin below expectations - Metso reported its Q1 2024 results yesterday morning (see first take). They were in line with expectations on order intake, but below expectations on adjusted EBITA (-7%).Order intake was down -6% on an organic basis (consensus -5.8%), but up 10.5% sequentially, confirming the rebound in activity that the group was anticipating in the Aggregates division (particularly in the US). Sales were down -7% on ...

EBITDA 15% below cons

Metso : Les progrès sur la marge se ressentent avec sa résilience au T...

>T1 2024 avec des commandes en ligne mais en dessous des attentes sur la marge - Metso a publié hier matin ses résultats T1 2024 (voir first take) qui étaient en ligne avec les attentes sur les prises de commandes, mais en dessous sur l’EBITA ajusté (-7%).Les prises de commandes étaient en recul de -6% en organique (css à -5.8%), mais en hausse séquentielle de 10.5%, confirmant ainsi le rebond de l’activité qui avait été anticipé par le groupe dans la division A...

Metso (Buy, TP: EUR13.00) - Small profit miss, but positives too

Q1 profits missed in a seasonally small quarter but also included positives: solid profitability, and strong Aggregates and Service orders. We have cut our 2024–2026e clean EPS by c3% and reiterate our BUY and EUR13 target price. The valuation remains attractive, in our view.

Q1 miss, but also demonstration of resilience

Orders and margins fine, but equipment sales gap, EBITA -8%. Adj. EBITA'24e-'26e down 2-3%. Not worrying, and good end-market and value support - BUY

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 04/25/2024

Having flirted with the 495-point mark on Friday, which could have triggered an extension of the correction, the market has rebounded well since then. Our technical analysis highlights a configuration in which we are only at the start of a powerful rally. Target of 622 points for Stoxx 600 index (+11%) by the end of the year confirmed. Prefer banks to insurance companies in the short term. - ...

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 25/04/2024

Après avoir frôlé vendredi la barre des 495 points qui aurait pu déclencher la poursuite de la correction, le marché a ensuite bien rebondi. Notre analyse technique met en lumière une configuration où nous ne serions qu’au début d’un rallye puissant. Objectif 622 points (+11%) d’ici à la fin de l’année confirmé sur le Stoxx 600. Préférer les banques aux assurances à court terme. - ...

Metso : Reassuring Q1 orders but results are below expectations

>Q1 2024: orders down -6%, sales down -7%, adjusted EBITA margin of 16.5% - Metso this morning reported Q1 2024 results that were 7% below expectations at adjusted EBITA level. Order intake was € 1,361m (consensus € 1,361), down -6% on an organic basis (consensus -5.8%). Orders were up sequentially in both divisions with improved market activity in Aggregates (driven by the US) and in Minerals (Services). Sales were down -7% (consensus -2.4%) on an organic b...

Metso : Reassuring Q1 orders but results are below expectations

>Q1 2024: orders down -6%, sales down -7%, adjusted EBITA margin of 16.5% - Metso this morning reported Q1 2024 results that were 7% below expectations at adjusted EBITA level. Order intake was € 1,361m (consensus € 1,361), down -6% on an organic basis (consensus -5.8%). Orders were up sequentially in both divisions with improved market activity in Aggregates (driven by the US) and in Minerals (Services). Sales were down -7% (consensus -2.4%) on an organic b...

Deliveries fall short, margins hold up