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Pierre FerraguÊ
  • Pierre FerraguÊ

The Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible 2Q25

We publish today our comprehensive quarterly bible: 229 pages of detailed analyses on what happened in the last 3 months, and how we interpret it, in light of our current convictions. The first section acts as a PM summary, outlining our key findings, and latest thoughts on the semi cycle, in 6 slides. Please follow the link below for more details.

Antoine Legault ... (+2)
  • Antoine Legault
  • Matthew Bryson

August Sales Review

Valuation: We are reiterating our OUTPERFORM rating and maintain our target price of $1,300. We base our target on a multiple of ~20X applied to our 2026E EPS (net cash). We believe this valuation is supported by TSMC's robust intermediate growth outlook (driven by demand for advanced semiconductor

Pierre FerraguÊ
  • Pierre FerraguÊ

Tesla CEO package: Outside of common norms, but sensible and credible

Last week, Tesla’s board proposed a compensation package for CEO and largest shareholder Elon Musk that stands out for its scale, structure, and ambition.  Does it make sense for shareholders? We provide a useful perspective, on a single slide. Tesla CEO package: Out of common norms, but sensible and credible

Anish Jog ... (+6)
  • Anish Jog
  • Daniel Ives
  • Matthew Weiss
  • Sam Brandeis
  • Scott Devitt
  • Steven Wahrhaftig
Pierre FerraguÊ
  • Pierre FerraguÊ

Bible 2Q25 – Autos: Semi recovery underway; tangible risks of pull-for...

Today, we are publishing the Autos section of our 28th Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible. The Tech Bible is a must-read for any tech investor, as it summarizes the quarterly earnings reports from the over 140 companies we track, providing an update on our key perspectives and convictions. In the coming weeks we will publish sections on Hyperscale & Cloud, Telecom Equipment, PCs, Enterprise IT, Foundry and Semicap Equipment. The auto semiconductor recovery is underway, with revenues up 4% QoQ ...

Tesla Inc: 1 director

A director at Tesla Inc sold 120,000 shares at 350.286USD and the significance rating of the trade was 71/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly sho...

Pierre FerraguÊ
  • Pierre FerraguÊ

Bible 2Q25 – Ride-sharing & Delivery: Lower Prices, Higher Profits. Wa...

Today, we are publishing the Ride-sharing and delivery section of our 28th Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible. The Tech Bible is a must-read for any tech investor, as it summarizes the quarterly earnings reports from the over 140 companies we track, providing an update on our key perspectives and convictions. In the coming weeks we will publish sections on Automotive, Memory, Hyperscale & Cloud, Telecom Equipment, Industrials, PCs, Enterprise IT, Foundry, and Semicap Equipment. Ride-sharing bo...

Anish Jog ... (+4)
  • Anish Jog
  • Daniel Ives
  • Sam Brandeis
  • Steven Wahrhaftig

Strategic Play within Last Mile Robotics; Initiating Outperform with $...

Company OverviewServe Robotics develops and operates AI-powered robots designed for last-mile food delivery of food and convenience items in urban cities with operations currently established in Miami, Dallas, Los Angeles, recent deployment in Atlanta as of June 26th, and Chicago confirmed as the f

Pierre FerraguÊ
  • Pierre FerraguÊ

Elon Musk wants 50 million H100 equivalent up and running by 2030 - Ou...

Musk ambitions to deploy 50m H100-equivalent GPUs for xAI within five years. In this note, we estimate the capex required and explore implications for tech infrastructure, in a single slide.

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Speculative Areas Still Leading; Staying Bullish We have discussed since late-July how the S&P 500 (SPX) had not closed below its 20-day MA for three months, but that even when it does, "all we would expect to happen is for a new, less-steep uptrend to form." That is precisely what has happened after the SPX finally lost its 20-day MA (for one whole day) on 8/1/25, only to get back to all-time highs last week. Therefore, we remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediat...

Pierre FerraguÊ
  • Pierre FerraguÊ

CoreWeave profitability; DeepSeek’s ASIC try; Semicap; PC pull-forward...

As always, during earnings season, we wrap-up what happened in the previous week. For our main takes summarized on a single slide, and a few words on each of the 9 names we followed last week, follow the link below.

Pierre FerraguÊ
  • Pierre FerraguÊ

AMD GPUs, Cyber HW refresh, Arista, Auto cycle and more.

As always, during earnings season, we wrap-up what happened in the previous week. For our main takes summarized on a single slide, and a few words on each of the 34 names we followed last week, follow the link below.

Pierre FerraguÊ
  • Pierre FerraguÊ

Dojo cancelled – AMD must be rejoicing: If even Elon can’t do it, who...

Bloomberg reported overnight that Tesla is shutting down its Dojo supercomputer. See below for key facts and our take.

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