Weekly news, topics & discussion

In the past week, we published an update on Equinor; we expect lowered renewables targets and capex guidance at the upcoming Capital Markets Update to be overshadowed by limited will or capacity for attractive shareholder distributions beyond 2025. We see significant downside risk for the stock to trade in line with peers on 2026e total shareholder yields. In other news, Panoro Energy released its Q3 results; we consider the report fairly neutral. Finally, production at Johan Sverdrup is back to...

Energy Morning - 20 November 2024

Brent spot: USD 73.0bbl, up 0.5/bbl from last OSE close.OSX: 77.3, down 1% since last OSE close.Borr (B): receives another suspension – not unexpected but a small negative.DNO (B): "good chance that a discovery has been made" on Falstaff, positive.PEN (B) Q3: Production now above 13kboe/d.API estim

Valuation update

In this note, we show updated valuation statistics for the E&P sector

Carlsberg AS: 1 director

A director at Carlsberg AS bought 4,000 shares at 717.743DKK and the significance rating of the trade was 88/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly ...

US shale: limited revisions and colour on 2025 activity levels

Our Q3 survey of the US shale universe showed limited revisions to guidance for 2024, and we still expect muted 2024 production growth of ~4–5% YOY (+8% YOY in 2023). Our survey also suggests capex down ~2% YOY, as the companies continue to guide for flat activity. Limited colour was provided on 2025 activity levels and associated capex, which we will know more about in the Q4 results season. For Q3, our universe marginally underspent its cash flow, albeit with net debt continuing to build QOQ a...

Valuation update

In this note, we show updated valuation statistics for the E&P sector.

Weekly news, topics & discussion

This week, DNO reported Q3 underlying results fairly in line with our estimates. It also introduced a long-term production guidance for its North Sea operations, which we find a bit too aggressive. Still, we estimate the North Sea net production to increase from 15kboed in 2024 to >20kboed in 2027. In other news, Equinor acquired a 11.8% stake from Sval Energi in the Halten East development, and BlueNord’s preliminary October production figures were at the lower end of its Q4 base production gui...

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 01/11/2024

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; Target price of A$0.70 per share: Approvals to start well testing at Welchau received. Rig and test equipment mobilized – All necessary approvals have been received to commence flow testing operations on the Welchau-1 discovery well for the period from 30 October 2024 until 31 March 2025. A workover rig has been mobilised to the Welchau-1 drill site with flow testing due to commence during the second half of Novem...

Margin strength outshines weak Enterprise

Steady and strong performance

12% dividend but uncertainty in Kurdistan

DNO (Buy, TP: NOK15.00) - Set for North Sea growth

We consider the Q3 results in line with expectations, with EBITDAX of USD107m versus our estimate of USD109m. While we find the new long-term North Sea production guidance a tad aggressive, implying a near doubling in production over 2024–2027, we still estimate the company will increase net production from ~15kboed in 2024 to >20kboed in 2027, while sustaining the current dividend level (yielding 12%), which should be covered by Kurdistan cash flow. We reiterate our BUY and NOK15 target price.

Veidekke (Buy, TP: NOK140.00) - Q3 revenues below, EPS above

While Q3 revenues missed expectations, higher order intake than expected left the order backlog 10% above our estimate. Despite lower volumes, the EBIT margin beat our forecast, led by the Norwegian Infrastructure division, particularly its portfolio of large civil engineering orders and the asphalt operations. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our SOTP-based target price to NOK140 (135).

ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 11/07/2024

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ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 07/11/2024

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GN Group (Buy, TP: DKK230.00) - Looking for an upturn in Enterprise

Q3 sales missed, owing to Enterprise and Gaming & Consumer performing below expectations, while EBITA was strong at DKK553m (c5.1% above consensus). The 2024 guidance was cut for organic growth to 1–2%, maintained for a 12–13% EBITA margin, and raised for FCF to DKK1.1bn+. With flat growth in headsets for two consecutive quarters, offset by a speakerphone decline, we now forecast -3% organic growth in 2024 (-2% in Q4). We reiterate our BUY and DKK230 target price.

GN Store Nord : Q3 2023 review – Lower end of guidance range for Enter...

>Q3 review - Miss on top line, EBITA as expected, beat on EPS level - GN Store Nord achieved Q3 2024 revenues of DKK 4,164m (-6.3% y-o-y, -6%/-5% vs ODDO BHF/consensus). Q3 EBITA reached DKK 553m (+18.7% y-o-y, margin 13.3%), which was in line with our and the consensus’ expectations. EPS reached DKK 1.86, well ahead of our DKK 1.44 and consensus’ DKK 1.34.GN Hearing continues its strong market outperformance - GN Hearing’s Q3 revenues of DKK 1,725m (...

Q3: EBITDA in line adjusted for exploration expense