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Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Magnificent Seven's Turn to Shine We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass). We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term outlook as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the S&P 500 (SPX) is above 6200 (up from 6028-6059). Additionally, we discussed since our 10/14/25 Compass how our near-term bullish outlook remains intact as long as the SPX holds above 6550-6569, which coincided with the ...

Dan Salmon
  • Dan Salmon

Amazon (Buy, $340 target) Reiterate Top Pick as OpenAI bull case emerg...

Our target increases to $340 from $270 as we raise revenue, EBITDA and EPS, partially offset by higher capex and lower near-term FCF. We also increase valuation multiples as conviction in the AWS bull case grows.

Dan Salmon
  • Dan Salmon

Amazon (Buy, $270 target) Implications of the AWS + OpenAI deal – Is a...

This morning Amazon Web Services (AWS) announced a multi-year partnership to run OpenAI’s core AI workloads starting immediately. Our Take: Positive for AWS and our Top Pick AMZN, and we see several important implications: 1. This deal is well above our expectations for AWS’s share of OpenAI workloads 2. No mention of Trainium but that could come with Trainium3 3. This is likely the biggest piece of the “unannounced deals” in October 4. Increased likelihood of a commerce integration between AMZ...

Chase Tohanczyn ... (+3)
  • Chase Tohanczyn
  • Matthew Weiss
  • Scott Devitt
Chase Tohanczyn ... (+4)
  • Chase Tohanczyn
  • Daniel Ives
  • Matthew Weiss
  • Scott Devitt
Anish Jog ... (+6)
  • Anish Jog
  • Daniel Ives
  • Matthew Weiss
  • Sam Brandeis
  • Scott Devitt
  • Steven Wahrhaftig
Pierre FerraguÊ
  • Pierre FerraguÊ

Tracking the return on AI investment: How is the replatforming going a...

Microsoft Amazon & Google absorb D&A well, growing other costs slower than revenues; Meta is in overdrive, squeezing margins

Pierre FerraguÊ
  • Pierre FerraguÊ

Amazon's hunger for GW - A sneak peak into 2027 AI Infrastructure grow...

Capacity deployment plans suggest capex growing in line with other hyperscalers in 2026, and another 40% in 2027

Dan Salmon
  • Dan Salmon

Amazon (Buy, $270 target) Emphatically rebutting the AWS bear case

What’s New: In this first take following tonight’s results, we focus on: 1. Addressing the AWS bear points one-by-one 2. AWS accelerates to +20% growth, backlog to $200B not counting October deals 3. 2025 capex guidance raised and at least one or more GW of capacity in 4Q 4. Project Rainier proves out Trainium2 before Trainium3 broadens the customer base 5. “Not constrained in any way” buying NVDA 6. Improved Amazon DSP capabilities supporting strong advertising growth 7. Agentic shopping will ...

Chase Tohanczyn ... (+4)
  • Chase Tohanczyn
  • Daniel Ives
  • Matthew Weiss
  • Scott Devitt

Positive Narrative Shift Ahead; OP, $330 PT

Figure 1. 3Q25 ResultsSource: Company reports, Wedbush estimates, FactSet consensusGuidance notes: 3Q total revenue guidance of $174B to $179.5B; 3Q operating income guidance of $15.5B to $20.5B.Total revenue grew +13.4% Y/Y to $180.2B, outpacing St. estimates by ~140bps, while operating income of

Pierre FerraguÊ
  • Pierre FerraguÊ

2026 AI Infra. outlook forming: XPU spending catching up with capex, u...

It has been a busy week with Nvidia’s comments in Washington and three hyperscalers reporting last night. Building on these updates, we have already formed a very insightful perspective on how AI infrastructure deployments are shaping up for next year. Please follow the link for our insight summarized on a single slide.

Chase Tohanczyn ... (+3)
  • Chase Tohanczyn
  • Matthew Weiss
  • Scott Devitt
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