Q1 EBIT was 4% below our estimate and Infront consensus, while EPS fell well short in percentage terms due to a low nominal figure. KPIs did not recover as much as we expected, although JM reiterated its target to increase housing starts to 3,800 units p.a., citing macroeconomic conditions as a key factor. Given the current market outlook, we believe the company has passed the trough on EPS, as we expect starts and sales to recover in late 2025 and 2026. We reiterate our BUY and target price of ...
Pent-up demand and falling interest rates remain the backbone for newbuild recovery expectations. However, as the recovery has not yet started, property developers screen as the most attractive long-term, but visibility remains mixed. Diversified construction companies are more attractive on near-term P/Es, although many seem to be fully valued on solid share-price performance over the past six months. We maintain a neutral sector view; NCC and Skanska are our top picks.
JM’s share price has been volatile over the past three years, trading in waves on recovery expectations. As the Swedish residential market has yet to recover, expectations have recently fallen further, and the stock has reached old lows. However, we expect a market recovery in late-2025 and 2026, and we believe this has created an attractive entry point. KPIs (unit sales and unit starts) are our Q1 focus point, as profits are still affected by cycle lows and a trailing profit recognition. We hav...
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