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Pierre FerraguÊ
  • Pierre FerraguÊ

The market has it backwards: Meta is the only hyperscaler overspending...

Microsoft, Google, and Amazon sold off after announcing large capex increases, while Meta rose ~10%. Our analysis suggests the market has this backwards. Please see the link for our take, summarised on a single slide.

Chase Tohanczyn ... (+4)
  • Chase Tohanczyn
  • Daniel Ives
  • Matthew Weiss
  • Scott Devitt

Prove It Mode Triggered; OP, $300 PT

Figure 1. 4Q25 ResultsSource: Company reports, Wedbush estimates, FactSet consensusGuidance notes: 4Q total revenue guidance of $206B to $213B; 4Q operating income guidance of $21B to $26B.Amazon reported healthy 4Q results. Total revenue grew +13.6% Y/Y to $213.4B, ~90bps ahead of St. estimates ca

Dan Salmon
  • Dan Salmon

Amazon (Buy, $350 target) Expect faster, higher margin returns on AWS ...

In this first take following tonight’s results, we focus on: 1. Capex guide overshadows AWS acceleration 2. 1Q26 revenue guide brackets consensus, operating income guide comes in below 3. 2026 Capex guidance well ahead of expectations with high conviction in ROIC 4. AWS revenue growth beats and we expect acceleration to continue 5. International retail growth strong as Whole Foods expands 6. Rufus, “horizontal” agents and the future of Amazon advertising

Pierre FerraguÊ
  • Pierre FerraguÊ

Tracking the return on AI investment: How is the replatforming going a...

Our replatforming framework is about measuring how increasing capital intensity drives revenue growth and efficiency improvement. Meta and Microsoft reported yesterday, and we track their replatforming performance by assessing how the growth gap between cash costs and revenue creates headroom for higher depreciation, in a single slide.

Michael Piccolo
  • Michael Piccolo

Daily Recap: WBD/NFLX, ALKT, VSEC, IP, MOD/THRM, JOBY, INMD, AES, HON,...

Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. (WBD - $27.98) and Netflix Inc. (NFLX - $84.64)News Reports Paramount Is Not Prepared to Bid Higher. According to Variety, David Ellison's Paramount Skydance (PSKY) has pursued a hostile $30-per-share all-cash takeover bid for WBD (total enterprise value of $108.4 billi

Chase Tohanczyn ... (+4)
  • Chase Tohanczyn
  • Daniel Ives
  • Matthew Weiss
  • Scott Devitt
Chase Tohanczyn ... (+4)
  • Chase Tohanczyn
  • Daniel Ives
  • Matthew Weiss
  • Scott Devitt
Dan Salmon
  • Dan Salmon

The Trade Desk (TTD, Neutral, target lowered to $35) CFO that recommen...

This morning, TTD announced that CFO Alex Kayyal is being replaced on an interim basis by Chief Accounting Officer Tahnil Davis. 4Q25 guidance was also re-affirmed and the earnings date was announced for February 25. We also had the opportunity to briefly speak with management after the release.

Dan Salmon
  • Dan Salmon

Shopify (SHOP, Neutral, $155 target) Amazon (AMZN, Buy/Top Pick, $350 ...

Earlier this week, the Information reported (and a company spokesperson confirmed) that on January 26th, SHOP will begin making merchants’ products widely available for purchase through checkout features in OpenAI’s ChatGPT, GOOGL’s AI Mode and Gemini, and MSFT Copilot. SHOP merchants will begin being surfaced on Gemini, AI Mode and Copilot by default, whereas they will be required to opt into selling on ChatGPT, and OpenAI will receive a 4% take rate on any ChatGPT sales. In this brief note, w...

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