XPUs: Sizing the upside for Broadcom and the downside for Nvidia

Broadcom disclosed last week a $10bn AI rack order for 2H26 (widely linked to OpenAI) and signaled growth in their AI division could accelerate further in 2027. In this note, we break down what this could mean for the ASIC vs. GPU battle and the future structure of the AI compute market, looking in particular at the addressable market of in-house ASICs.

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Downgrading Utilities to Market Weight We remain bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and we will maintain our bullish outlook as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the S&P 500 (SPX) is above 6028-6059. Shorter-term, the SPX continues to make higher lows as new leaders emerge and rotations continue; we would need to see a break below 6340-6360 in order to have confidence that a consolidation period has finally begun. Short-term supports on SPX include 6400-6410, 6340-6360, 6200, 6100-6150...

Bible 2Q25 – Hyperscale & Cloud: 2026 capex expectations up 19%, $3-4t...

Today, we are publishing the Hyperscale & Cloud section of our 28th Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible. The Tech Bible is a must-read for any tech investor, as it summarizes the quarterly earnings reports from the over 140 companies we track, providing an update on our key perspectives and convictions. In the coming weeks we will publish sections on Enterprise IT and Foundry. Hyperscale capex grew 70% YoY. Most raised 2025 guides, and confirmed sustained spending in 2026, lifting expectations....

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NVIDIA Corp: 1 director

A director at NVIDIA Corp sold 225,000 shares at 168.953USD and the significance rating of the trade was 67/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly s...

ASML investing in Mistral – Strategic core or distraction?

Media reported yesterday that ASML will invest €1.3bn in Mistral AI, a French start-up developing frontier AI models, as part of a €1.7bn Series C funding round valuing Mistral at €10bn pre-money. Click on the link below for our quick read.

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While this feature will only be offered in select cities (for now), comes with several limitations (to protect drivers and users) and is unlikely to represent a significant share of payments, we believe this will increase transport accessibility and reflects the continued relevance of cash for cert

Bible 2Q25 – Semicap: Cautious view justified; expectations at risk fo...

Today, we are publishing the Semicap section of our 28th Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible. The Tech Bible is a must-read for any tech investor, as it summarizes the quarterly earnings reports from the over 140 companies we track, providing an update on our key perspectives and convictions. In the coming weeks we will publish sections on Hyperscale & Cloud, PCs, Enterprise IT and Foundry. 2Q25 semicap revenues up 2% QoQ, 2% above consensus. China up 19% after a 17% decline in 1Q, with manufac...

Could Broadcom XPUs ramp to 50% of infrastructure deployed by clients ...

Broadcom announced yesterday a $10bn AI rack order (likely OpenAI), for inference, and hinted growth could accelerate in 2027.

Is Broadcom XPUs set to capture 45% of OpenAI infrastructure deploymen...

Broadcom announced a $10bn ramp at a new client in the second half of 2026.

Wedbush Morning Call - Sep 05 2025 7:07AM

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Foxconn, NVDA: August sales suggest continued AI momentumView: While overall sales slipped slightly M/M, AI sales remained robust with Foxconn noting it saw customers pull in shipments and reiterating it expects rack shipments will increase 3X. We see this news as indicative that near-term momentum

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August Sales

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Hot Chips 2025: memory, interconnects, and full-stack optimizations at...

Last week we attended the 2025 edition of the Hot Chips conference, still the place to be for investors who want to understand chip architecture and how it can impact competitive dynamics. ​​We followed presentations on datacenter XPUs, system-scale integration, and full-stack innovation, by Microsoft, Google, Meta, Nvidia, AMD, Intel, Broadcom, Marvell, Huawei, and others. Ping us for slide packs if you want the full primary material.

Jensen’s $3-4tn, Elon's 50m H100s, Marvell's miss, and more. Our weekl...

As always, during earnings season, we wrap-up what happened in the previous week. For our main takes summarized on a single slide, and a few words on each of the 9 names we followed last week, follow the link below.

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