reports
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
MFN Drug Pricing - Impact and Implementation (Thematic, 5pgs)
Ahead of today’s signing of an Executive Order to introduce a Most Favoured Nation approach to drug pricing in the US, we show that net pricing in the EU is c.50% lower than in the US & which companies have most to lose from MFN. We also show that, in reality,
Novo Nordisk AS: 1 director
A director at Novo Nordisk AS sold 40,000 shares at 450.528DKK and the significance rating of the trade was 100/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clear...
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Zealand Pharma (Buy, TP: DKK950.00) - Dapiglutide likely next catalyst
Q1 revenue missed expectations on lower reimbursement revenue, while operating profit was a beat, as opex was below our forecast and consensus. The 2025 guidance was maintained for opex of DKK2,000m–2,500m. We believe the next potential share-price catalyst is the top-line results from the phase Ib dapiglutide trial in Q2e. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to DKK950 (1,000).
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Novo Nordisk (Buy, TP: DKK900.00) - Accelerated Wegovy roll-out ahead
Q1 LCY figures beat our forecasts, while the 2025 guidance was cut to 13–21% LCY sales growth YOY and 16–24% LCY operating profit growth YOY due to weaker GLP-1 sales. We have lowered our rebate for US Ozempic but maintain our 52% Wegovy rebate (in line with the Q1 rebate when adjusting for de-stocking). We reiterate our BUY and DKK900 target price.
Novartis AG: 1 director
A director at Novartis AG sold 21,000 shares at 94.000CHF and the significance rating of the trade was 100/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly sh...
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Novo Nordisk (Buy, TP: DKK900.00) - Underlying soft GLP-1 sales
We forecast a soft Q1, with 17.3% LCY sales growth and 13.8% LCY operating profit growth due to subdued prescriptions. While we estimate Ozempic sales c0.5% below consensus, we are c1.2% above for Wegovy, as we include DKK1bn in sales related to Wegovy US inventories. We see likely relief from potential unchanged 2025 LCY guidance, supported by improved Wegovy supply and fading pressure from compounders. We reiterate our BUY and DKK900 target price.
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Zealand Pharma (Buy, TP: DKK1000.00) - Focus on pipeline progression
We expect an uneventful Q1 report, with investor focus on top-line results from the dapiglutide phase Ib obesity trial (due in Q2), which could help provide clarity on the positioning of the molecule in obesity and inflammation. For petrelintide, we have reduced our peak sales forecast to cUSD10.0bn (cUSD10.8bn) on increased competition from GUBamy. We reiterate our BUY but have cut our target price to DKK1,000 (1,150).
- Anthony Dick
- Michael Foundoukidis
DB1 DEUTSCHE BOERSE AG
SU SCHNEIDER ELECTRIC SE
ADS ADIDAS AG
MTX MTU AERO ENGINES AG
NOVN NOVARTIS AG
FORTUM FORTUM OYJ
RXL REXEL SA
MMK MAYR-MELNHOF KARTON AG
RHM RHEINMETALL AG
ALV ALLIANZ SE
G ASSICURAZIONI GENERALI S.P.A.
CAP CAPGEMINI SE
SY1 SYMRISE AG
BC8 BECHTLE AG
REC RECORDATI INDUSTRIA CHIMICA E FARMACEUTICA S.P.A.
AZN ASTRAZENECA PLC
BP. BP P.L.C.
BG BAWAG GROUP AG
CCEP COCA-COLA EUROPEAN PARTNERS PLC
8TRA TRATON SE
P911 DR. ING. H.C. F. PORSCHE AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT
PUIG PUIG BRANDS
- Anthony Dick
- Michael Foundoukidis
GALP GALP ENERGIA SGPS SA CLASS B
DB1 DEUTSCHE BOERSE AG
SU SCHNEIDER ELECTRIC SE
ADS ADIDAS AG
MTX MTU AERO ENGINES AG
NOVN NOVARTIS AG
FORTUM FORTUM OYJ
RXL REXEL SA
MMK MAYR-MELNHOF KARTON AG
RHM RHEINMETALL AG
ALV ALLIANZ SE
G ASSICURAZIONI GENERALI S.P.A.
CAP CAPGEMINI SE
SY1 SYMRISE AG
BC8 BECHTLE AG
REC RECORDATI INDUSTRIA CHIMICA E FARMACEUTICA S.P.A.
AZN ASTRAZENECA PLC
BP. BP P.L.C.
BG BAWAG GROUP AG
8TRA TRATON SE
P911 DR. ING. H.C. F. PORSCHE AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT
PUIG PUIG BRANDS
- Damien Choplain
- Martial Descoutures
- Damien Choplain
- Martial Descoutures
- Research Team ACF
ACF Thematic Oncology Lung Cancer Cough LCC 25042025
Lung Cancer Cough (LCC) is an under-served, perhaps unserved therapeutic subsegment of the Lung Cancer/Oncology market. 57-65% of early diagnosis lung cancer patients suffer from LCC, it is a highly debilitating condition. The US lung cancer therapeutics market consensus values range from ~USD 29.9bn in 2023 to ~USD 71.3bn in 2034, suggesting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.2% over our 10 year forecast period. LCC is a prevalent symptom among lung cancer patients, and its management is...
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
US Tariffs - Broad Tariffs are Highly Unlikely (7pgs)
Following a number of recent events, we discuss in this note what we think is the most likely outcome for the Pharma industry. We show that broad based tariffs on drugs are highly unlikely, that even if it were to happen, the impact of a 20% tariff is
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Novo Nordisk (Buy, TP: DKK900.00) - Subdued prescription growth in Q1
We have updated our model with the latest IQVIA data, and see downside risk to Visible Alpha consensus. We see Q1e global sales for Wegovy of DKK17,898m (c2.2% below consensus) and Ozempic of DKK31,642m (c1.5% below consensus). While a reaffirmation of guidance could offer relief, we have lowered our target price, primarily on lower-than-expected GLP-1 sales. We reiterate our BUY but have cut our target price to DKK900 (1,040).
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Testing Prior 2022 Highs Since late-February (2/25/25 Compass) we expected an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity. But that all changed in last week's Compass (4/1/25), when we downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious, citing several concerning developments (SPX and QQQ failure at 200-day MAs, bear flag breakdowns across major indexes targeting 5100-5200 on SPX, high yield spreads widening above 355bps, major tops on market leaders NVDA and META, semiconducto...
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
US Tariffs - Transfer Pricing Could Negate Impact (6pgs)
We show that Big Pharma would not have to shift a single element of supply chain to the US and can mitigate most, if not all, of a 20% tariff on drugs, just by changing their transfer pricing strategy. In a scenario where the US corporation tax rate falls to 15% but tariffs are 20%, we show that Big Pharma profits would be unchanged, while the US government tax take would more than double. The losers would be low tax jurisdictions like Ireland, but they would get to keep their manufacturing base...
- Stefano Toffano
BMW BAYERISCHE MOTOREN WERKE AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT
FP TOTAL SE
TKA THYSSENKRUPP AG
EQNR EQUINOR ASA
MT ARCELORMITTAL SA
GALP GALP ENERGIA SGPS SA CLASS B
BEKB BEKAERT SA
AAL ANGLO AMERICAN PLC
RNO RENAULT SA
APAML APERAM SA
ROG ROCHE HOLDING LTD
OUT1V OUTOKUMPU OYJ
EO FAURECIA SA
SSAB A SSAB AB CLASS A
NOVN NOVARTIS AG
DAI DAIMLER AG
GIVN GIVAUDAN SA
POM PLASTIC OMNIUM SE
SZG SALZGITTER AG
TYRES NOKIAN RENKAAT OYJ
OR L'OREAL SA
VOE VOESTALPINE AG
ACX ACERINOX SA
ENI ENI S.P.A.
FR VALEO SE
RWE RWE AG
SAN SANOFI
VOW3 VOLKSWAGEN AG PREF
ERA ERAMET SA
REP REPSOL SA
NDA AURUBIS AG
LPP LPP S.A.
CIE CIE AUTOMOTIVE S.A.
AMG AMG ADVANCED METALLURGICAL GROUP N.V.
RACE FERRARI NV
RIO RIO TINTO PLC
SAP SAP SE
AZN ASTRAZENECA PLC
BHP BHP GROUP LTD
BP. BP P.L.C.
PIRC PIRELLI & C. S.P.A.
AMAG AMAG AUSTRIA METALL AG
GEST GESTAMP AUTOMOCION S.A.
ERF EUROFINS SCIENTIFIC SOCIETE EUROPEENNE
AML ASTON MARTIN LAGONDA GLOBAL HOLDINGS
STLA STELLANTIS N.V.
SHEL SHELL PLC
ML COMPAGNIE GENERALE DES ETABLISSEMENTS MICHELIN
GSK GSK PLC
P911 DR. ING. H.C. F. PORSCHE AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT
NOVO B NOVO NORDISK A/S
ALIV SDB AUTOLIV INC.
BRE BREMBO S.P.A.
- Team Pharma
- Stefano Toffano
BMW BAYERISCHE MOTOREN WERKE AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT
FP TOTAL SE
TKA THYSSENKRUPP AG
EQNR EQUINOR ASA
MT ARCELORMITTAL SA
GALP GALP ENERGIA SGPS SA CLASS B
BEKB BEKAERT SA
AAL ANGLO AMERICAN PLC
RNO RENAULT SA
APAML APERAM SA
ROG ROCHE HOLDING LTD
OUT1V OUTOKUMPU OYJ
EO FAURECIA SA
SSAB A SSAB AB CLASS A
NOVN NOVARTIS AG
DAI DAIMLER AG
GIVN GIVAUDAN SA
POM PLASTIC OMNIUM SE
SZG SALZGITTER AG
TYRES NOKIAN RENKAAT OYJ
OR L'OREAL SA
VOE VOESTALPINE AG
ACX ACERINOX SA
ENI ENI S.P.A.
FR VALEO SE
RWE RWE AG
SAN SANOFI
VOW3 VOLKSWAGEN AG PREF
ERA ERAMET SA
REP REPSOL SA
NDA AURUBIS AG
LPP LPP S.A.
CIE CIE AUTOMOTIVE S.A.
AMG AMG ADVANCED METALLURGICAL GROUP N.V.
RACE FERRARI NV
RIO RIO TINTO PLC
SAP SAP SE
AZN ASTRAZENECA PLC
BHP BHP GROUP LTD
BP. BP P.L.C.
PIRC PIRELLI & C. S.P.A.
AMAG AMAG AUSTRIA METALL AG
GEST GESTAMP AUTOMOCION S.A.
ERF EUROFINS SCIENTIFIC SOCIETE EUROPEENNE
AML ASTON MARTIN LAGONDA GLOBAL HOLDINGS
STLA STELLANTIS N.V.
SHEL SHELL PLC
ML COMPAGNIE GENERALE DES ETABLISSEMENTS MICHELIN
GSK GSK PLC
P911 DR. ING. H.C. F. PORSCHE AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT
NOVO B NOVO NORDISK A/S
ALIV SDB AUTOLIV INC.
BRE BREMBO S.P.A.
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