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Valens Research
  • Valens Research

Valens Equity Insights and Inflections - 2018 03 21

EXPE currently trades near historical highs relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) Earnings, with a 24.2x Uniform P/E. However, even at these levels, the market is pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to continue fading from 24% in 2016 to 15% in 2021, accompanied by 16% Uniform Asset growth going forward. Analysts have similar expectations, projecting Uniform ROA to fade to 15% in 2018, accompanied by 12% Uniform Asset growth. However, both market and analyst expectations appear unreasonable give...

Valens Research
  • Valens Research

HD - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2018 03 19

The Home Depot Inc. (HD:USA) currently trades near historical highs relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) Earnings, with a 23.4x Uniform P/E, implying bullish expectations for the firm. However, management has concerns about investments, ROIC, and sales comps Specifically, management may be downplaying concerns about their lack of incremental investment post-tax reform, and may have concerns about the sustainability of ROIC improvements. Additionally, they may be downplaying concerns about their pl...

Valens Research
  • Valens Research

Valens Equity Insights and Inflections - 2017 12 20

HD currently trades near historical highs relative to Uniform Earnings, with a 24.9x Uniform P/E. At these levels, the market is pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to see an acceleration in recent improvements, and grow from 20% in 2017 to 37% in 2022, accompanied by 1% Uniform Asset shrinkage going forward. However, analysts have slightly less bullish expectations, projecting Uniform ROA to only expand to 22% by 2019, accompanied by immaterial Uniform Asset shrinkage. That said, Valens' qu...

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