Brent crude oil prices have finally stopped falling, bouncing by USD 3.1/bbl in January 2026. In December 2025, a small increase in oil production from OPEC was offset by declines in Russia and Kazakhstan. The WOOD benchmark refining margin rose slightly, but company margins declined. Olefin prices increased, while naphtha prices were stagnant, bringing some respite to petrochemicals.
EME Equity Market – January 2026 All regions in the green in January, with the Turkish ISE the best performer. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 11.1% mom in EUR terms and 13.2% mom in USD terms in January. The Turkish ISE was the top performer (+20.8% mom), followed by the Hungarian BUX (+17.5% mom); the Romanian BET (+11.1% mom); the Greek ASE (+9.2% mom); the Polish WIG 20 (+5.9% mom); and the Czech PX (+2.4% mom; all in EUR terms).
We have downgraded Orlen to HOLD (from Buy), with a new price target (PT) of PLN 102.7 (from PLN 73.3), offering upside of -2.2%. For Orlen, 2025 was an annus mirabilis and the share price broke new records, so we see limited upside from here. Gas prices fell in 2025, lowering our expectations for upstream and supply EBITDA. Capex in 2025E was below plan, but we expect negative FCF in 2026-27E. Acquisitions and discoveries keep Orlen’s upstream segment on a growing trajectory, while the first of...
We hosted our 29th ODDO BHF Forum in Lyon on 8 and 9 January 2026. In total, 220 companies presented over the two days. In the following note, we provide some initial feedback from the companies on Day 2, in addition to Day 1 feedback (Link to Day 1 feedback). Key positive companies were Corbion, DEME, Elia Group, Knorr Bremse, Sulzer, Séché Environnement, Fraport, Vallourec and TUI. More cautious companies were Arkema, Fastned, INWIT, Manitou, Roche Bobois, Téléperformance, and Colonial SFL. T...
EME Equity Market – December 2025 Czech PX the best performer in December; no market in the red. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 3.4% mom in EUR terms and 4.6% mom in USD terms in December. The Czech PX was the top performer, adding 7.6% mom; followed by the Romanian BET (+7.1% mom); the Polish WIG 20 (+6.4% mom); the Greek ASE (+1.8% mom), the Turkish ISE 30 (+0.4% mom) and the Hungarian BUX (+0.2% mom; all in EUR terms).
HEADLINES: • Lamda Development: 3Q25 - malls and marinas steady, bond and land sale to boost liquidity • Kety: 4Q25 results and 2026E guidance conference call NEUTRAL • Orlen: to acquire butadiene plant at Plock, Poland, from Synthos NEGATIVE • PGE: to acquire a 350MW offshore project from RWE POSITIVE • Polish utilities: offshore auction results - minimum price at PLN 477/MWh POSITIVE • Czech Republic macro: CNB extends the pause
HEADLINES: • Bank of Cyprus: paid to wait (stays BUY) • Polish utilities: 2030 capacity market price set at PLN 465/kW/year NEUTRAL • Orlen: receives response from Grupa Azoty about offer for Grupa Azoty Polyolefins NEUTRAL • CEZ: new government aiming to reduce power bills by c.10% or more NEUTRAL • OMV Petrom: preparing to drill offshore Bulgaria by the year-end NEUTRAL
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