HEADLINES: • Komercni Banka: 1Q24 below market's expectations, on late-cycle provisions and revenue headwinds NEGATIVE • BRD-GSG: high level of provisions booked leads to bottom-line miss in 1Q24 NEUTRAL • Yapi Kredi: 1Q24 highlights • Czech Republic macro: MPC preparing the ground for slower rate cuts • Czech Republic macro: a sound recovery, despite stagnant exports • Wirtualna Polska: Itaka ends cooperation with Wakacje.pl NEGATIVE • Turkish automotive: ADA releases April light vehicle sales ...
EME Equity Market – April 2024 Market performance – green across all geographies, with Turkey outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index was up 5.3% mom in EUR terms and 4.2% mom in USD in April; while the Turkish ISE30 saw the strongest performance, adding 11.6% mom; followed by the Hungarian BUX (+5.0% mom); the Czech PX (+2.8% mom); the Greek ASE (+1.8% mom), the Polish WIG20 (+1.2% mom) and the Romanian BET (+0.1% mom) (all in EUR terms).
HEADLINES: • CTP: better late than never (upgraded to BUY) • Georgia macro: protests in Tbilisi • Raiffeisen Bank International: posts solid 1Q24, keeps 2024E guidance (but only on ex. Russia and Belarus basis), facing huge pressure to address Russia and Belarus exposures from officials • Air Astana Group: 1Q24 – 15% ASK growth, RASK down slightly yoy, but CASK stable • Piraeus Financial Holdings: 1Q24 highlights NEUTRAL • Alkaloid: 1Q24 numbers a strong start to the year POSITIVE • National Ban...
Piraeus has posted 1Q24 net income figures of EUR 233m and EUR 279m in reported and normalised terms, respectively. This indicates a 3% miss on the reported net income consensus (EUR 239m) and a 5% miss on the normalised net income consensus (EUR 295m). The miss was mainly revenue-driven, where other operating income/loss lines brought in a EUR 67m setback in the quarter, EUR 43m of which was related to the expenses associated with the HFSF stake sale. At first look, 1Q24 seems to have left us w...
HEADLINES: • Santander Bank Polska: 1Q24 results – 19%+ headline ROE affected only slightly by FX mortgage saga costs • Bank Pekao: 1Q24 results in line with market's expectations NEUTRAL • PCF Group: 4Q23 headlines hit heavily by write-offs, but a more limited EBITDA loss than we had expected NEUTRAL • Erste Bank: 1Q24 results NEUTRAL • OMV: 1Q24 results – chemicals stronger than expected NEUTRAL • Borouge: 1Q24 results – better than expected POSITIVE • OMV Petrom: 1Q24 results NEUTRAL • Garan...
The CEE region is expected to deliver a moderate rebound of GDP growth in 2024,following the preceding year’s weak growth, fuelling expectations of sustainable profits inthe banking sector. Inflation is seen to be twin faced in our region, similar to most of the coreeconomies. Even with a diminished potential for much intra-year improvement of the inflationpath in 2024, this inflation provides several CEE central banks more room to cut policy ratesthis year. Lower interest rates are expected to ...
HEADLINES: • MONETA Money Bank: strong 1Q24 delivery, on better-than- expected revenues POSITIVE • Alior Bank: books small beat on 1Q24 delivery, driven by low credit risk charges; robust 2024E outlook supported POSITIVE • Shoper: 1Q24 adjusted EBITDA 9% above our expectations; FY23 results in line with prelims POSITIVE • Mo-BRUK: 4% miss vs. our 4Q23 adjusted EBITDA forecast, weak cash flows NEGATIVE • Wizz Air: fiscal 2024 post-close trading update POSITIVE • Aselsan: CEO's comments on exports...
HEADLINES: • Orange Polska: 1Q24 results – EBITDAaL up 5% yoy, 4% above the consensus POSITIVE • VIGO Photonics: strong miss on EBITDA and bottom line NEGATIVE • GTC: 4Q23 – no material revaluation result, focus remains on refinancing ahead NEUTRAL • Poland macro: retail sales stay brisk in March • Hungary macro: MNB slows down pace of rate cuts • Kruk: 1Q24E preview (due on 8 May, after the close) • Bank Handlowy: 1Q24E preview (due on 9 May) • Eurocash: 1Q24E results preview – 16% yoy EBITDA ...
HEADLINES: • Kaspi.kz: 1Q24 highlights Kruk: buys more portfolios in Italy • Tupras: launches USD 256m propylene investment NEUTRAL • Turkish banks: coverage UNDER REVIEW • Sipchem: 1Q24E results preview (due on 25 April) NEUTRAL • Jeronimo Martins: 1Q24E results preview – 11% yoy EBITDA growth expected (due on 26 April, before the open) • Erste Bank: 1Q24E preview (due on 30 April) • BRD-GSG: 1Q24E preview (due on 2 May) NEUTRAL • PKO BP: 1Q24E preview (due on 9 May) • Banca Transilvania: 1Q24E...
• LPP: the glass is half full (stays BUY) • Eurocash: 4Q23 beat on costs, profit warning for 1Q24E • 11 bit studios: 4Q23 adjusted EBITDA beats expectations on a solid top line • Polish banks: 2024 contributions to the BFG • MOL: oil production starts on a new platform at ACG field • Ford Otosan: completes the Eurobond book-building process • Kalekim: 2023 IAS 29 results - strong operating results • Lamda: 4Q23 results - a significant step-up in Ellinikon revenues, revaluation gain on existing m...
Kalekim announced its 2023 IAS 29 results on 18 April, reporting net earnings of TRY 430m, +3% yoy, in its income statement, which was prepared under the IAS 29 inflation-accounting principles. It posted a strong set of operating results under IAS 29, with an expanding EBITDA margin on an annual basis. Kalekim also released its non-inflation-adjusted key financial figures for 2023, implying a solid operating performance in 4Q23, in line with consensus expectations. We believe that Kalekim should...
HEADLINES: • Lamda: 4Q23 results - significant step-up in Ellinikon revenues, revaluation gain on existing malls • Electrica: proposed changes to the regulatory framework • Bank Pekao: AGM chooses new Supervisory Board members, approves PLN 19.2 DPS • 11 bit studios: release date of INDIKA moved to 2 May • Nuclearelectrica: shareholders abstain from voting on the items from yesterday’s GMS • EMEA airlines: 1Q24 traffic - a good start to the year • Budimex: 1Q24E flat yoy - profitability improvem...
HEADLINES: • Sok Marketler: weak performance in the 4Q23 results • Inter Cars: targets 15-17% yoy revenue growth this year • Polish telecoms: telecommunications fee to grow from 0.05% of sales to 0.15% sales • Polish media: CPS audience share at 21.53%, WP TV at 0.61% in March 2024 • OMV Petrom: 1Q24E results preview (due out 30 April)
HEADLINES: • Greek banks: life after the windfall (Alpha, Eurobank, NBG and Piraeus – transfer of coverage) • Cyfrowy Polsat: key takeaways from the 4Q23 earnings call NEUTRAL • Orlen: announces PLN 1.6bn of probable trading losses NEGATIVE • ING BSK: AGM approves PLN 33.35 DPS NEUTRAL • Public Power Corporation: partners with Mytilineos for 2GW solar portfolio NEUTRAL • InPost: PPF realises option to buy 10% stake • ONE United Properties: founders and others selling up to 9.5% in ABB • PKO BP: ...
We are revisiting and transferring coverage of the Greek banks. We estimate their earnings to plateau, and their ROTEs to normalise in 2024-26E, as the market expects short-term Euribor rates to decline. Capital and liquidity gain importance as there is less easy money. The emphasis will be on optimising balance sheets, returning capital, and minimising funding costs relative to Euribor. We like National Bank of Greece (NBG; BUY) for its profitability, simplicity, and potential to return capital...
HEADLINES: • Auto Partner: 4Q23 EBITDA misses our forecast by 4%, but the consensus by 12% NEGATIVE • Cyfrowy Polsat: 4Q23 results review – adjusted EBITDA down 17% yoy, 4% below the consensus NEGATIVE • Warsaw Stock Exchange: 4Q23 bottom-line beat lacking some quality NEUTRAL • Pepco Group: lfl worsens to -2.9% in 2Q24; new CEO appointed NEGATIVE • DataWalk: actual 4Q23 numbers fully in line with the preliminaries; strong 1Q24 sales funnel POSITIVE • CEZ: Parliament formally drops Lex CEZ 2.0 N...
HEADLINES: • OMV Petrom: 1Q24 trading statement POSITIVE • OMV: 1Q24 trading statement NEUTRAL • Bank Millennium: 1Q24E CHF mortgage saga provisions land at PLN 507m NEUTRAL • Polish gencos: IndMin floats notion of alternative solution to the NABE NEUTRAL • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (1-7 April) • Halyk Savings Bank: pays off State aid fully POSITIVE • Orange Polska: key takeaways from the interview with the CTO NEUTRAL • Polish telecoms: mobile number portability in 1Q24 NEUTRAL • Pub...
HEADLINES: • Budimex: stands out, but deserves a pause (downgraded to HOLD) • CCC: 4Q23 slightly below prelims; sales acceleration and gross margin widening in 1Q24E POSITIVE • PGE: takeaways from the 4Q23 earnings call NEUTRAL • Hungary macro: the rise of the “Peter Magyar” phenomenon • Poland macro: local elections and NBP decision show continuity • Budimex: UOHS cancels decision on choosing BDX's offer for the D11 highway NEGATIVE • Budimex: potential new contract in road construction (PLN 0...
EME Equity Market – March 2024 Market performance – mixed performances in March, with the Romanian BET outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 0.3% mom in EUR terms and 0.4% mom in USD in March. The Romanian BET reported the strongest performance, adding 7.1% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Czech PX and the Polish WIG20 (+4.1% and 1.0% mom, in EUR terms, respectively). Greece saw a relatively muted performance (-0.2% mom in EUR terms), while Hungary (-1.1% mom in EUR terms) and Tür...
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